bayesRatings

Eagles at Buccaneers

NFL · Sunday, Sep 28 · 12:00 PM CT · Raymond James Stadium · Final PHI 31 – TB 25
← NFL / Sep 28, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
PHI14107031
TB3314525
Team box
PHI·TB
200
total yards
376
112
passing yards
272
88
rushing yards
104
16
first downs
18
5-14
third downs
3-13
0
turnovers
2
28:08
time of possession
31:52
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Jalen HurtsPHI15/2413020
Baker MayfieldTB22/4028921
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Jalen HurtsPHI9620
Bucky IrvingTB15630
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Dallas GoedertPHI4372
Bucky IrvingTB51021

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
TB +21
PHI +21
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: TB 0 · PHI 21lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was PHI 59%, TB 41% · Updated Sep 28, 2025

Expected margin
PHI by 1.9
Expected score
PHI 25.2 – 23.4 TB
Expected total
48.6
EaglesThe matchupBuccaneers
−144Our fair odds+144
25.2Expected points23.4
+1.19Power rating+0.45
25.7Points / game24.0
21.0Allowed / game22.0
269Total yards / game322
4.4Yards / play5.0
147Passing yards / game192
3−0Season record3−0
9−1Last 108−2

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
PHI chance · TB chance
Our model fair59.0%41.0%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
PHIPhiladelphia Eagles−14459%————
TBTampa Bay Buccaneers+14441%————
SpreadPHI by 1.9
PHIPhiladelphia Eagles−1.9our margin————
TBTampa Bay Buccaneers+1.9our margin————
Totalwe expect 48.6
Over48.6our total————
Under48.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Philadelphia Eagles by 1.9 expected
Philadelphia Eagles by 38 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 37 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 36 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 35 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 34 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 33 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 32 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 31 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 30 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 29 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 28 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 27 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 26 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 25 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 24 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 23 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 22 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 21 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 20 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 19 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 18 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 17 points: 2%Philadelphia Eagles by 16 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 15 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 14 points: 3%Philadelphia Eagles by 13 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 12 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 11 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 10 points: 3%Philadelphia Eagles by 9 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 8 points: 2%Philadelphia Eagles by 7 points: 5%Philadelphia Eagles by 6 points: 3%Philadelphia Eagles by 5 points: 3%Philadelphia Eagles by 4 points: 3%Philadelphia Eagles by 3 points: 9%Philadelphia Eagles by 2 points: 2%Philadelphia Eagles by 1 point: 3%Tie: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 1 point: 2%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 2 points: 3%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 3 points: 7%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 4 points: 2%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 5 points: 2%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 6 points: 4%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 7 points: 4%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 8 points: 2%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 9 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 10 points: 2%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 11 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 12 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 13 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 14 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 15 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 16 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 17 points: 2%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 18 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 19 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 20 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 21 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 22 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 23 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 24 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 25 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 26 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 27 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 28 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 29 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 30 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 31 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 32 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 33 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 34 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 35 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 36 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 37 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 38 points: <1%
← PHI wins byTB wins by →
Philadelphia Eagles wins by 3 or more52%
Philadelphia Eagles wins by 7 or more33%
Philadelphia Eagles wins by 10 or more25%
Within 3 points either way27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

48.6 expected
14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: <1%17 points: <1%18 points: <1%19 points: <1%20 points: <1%21 points: <1%22 points: <1%23 points: 1%24 points: 1%25 points: 1%26 points: 1%27 points: 1%28 points: 1%29 points: 1%30 points: 1%31 points: 1%32 points: 1%33 points: 2%34 points: 2%35 points: 2%36 points: 2%37 points: 3%38 points: 2%39 points: 2%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 2%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 3%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 2%58 points: 2%59 points: 2%60 points: 2%61 points: 2%62 points: 1%63 points: 2%64 points: 1%65 points: 1%66 points: 1%67 points: 1%68 points: 1%69 points: 1%70 points: 1%71 points: 1%72 points: 1%73 points: 1%74 points: 1%75 points: 1%76 points: 1%77 points: 1%78 points: 1%79 points: <1%80 points: <1%81 points: <1%82 points: <1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%85 points: <1%86 points: <1%87 points: <1%88 points: <1%89 points: <1%90 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 41.567%
Total over 48.547%
Total over 55.531%
Total from 42 to 5536%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
PHIJalen Hurts · last 3 games: 71% completions, 160 yds/game, 3 TD, 0 INTstarted
TBBaker Mayfield · last 3 games: 62% completions, 205 yds/game, 6 TD, 0 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
PHI·TB
Sep 21, 2025 vs LAR
last game
Sep 21, 2025 vs NYJ
6 days
days of rest
6 days
road after a home game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 3+ games
PHI·TB
+1.19
rating (0 = average)
+0.45
25.7
points / game
24.0
21.0
points allowed / game
22.0
3−0
season record
3−0
2−0
home record
1−0
1−0
away record
2−0
W3
streak
W3
9−1
last 10
8−2
269
total yards / game
322
4.4
yards / play
5.0
147
passing yards / game
192
122
rushing yards / game
131
18.3
first downs / game
20.0
0.3
turnovers / game
0.0

Rating Trend

PHI · TB · 8 days
Philadelphia EaglesTampa Bay Buccaneers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 5 meetings · TB 4−1
Sep 29, 2024at TBTB 33 − 16
Jan 15, 2024at TBTB 32 − 9post
Sep 25, 2023at TBPHI 25 − 11
Jan 16, 2022at TBTB 31 − 15post
Oct 14, 2021at PHITB 28 − 22

PHI · Last 10

9−1 · streak W9
Sep 21, 2025vs LAR33 − 26W
Sep 14, 2025at KC20 − 17W
Sep 4, 2025vs DAL24 − 20W
Feb 9, 2025vs KC40 − 22W
Jan 26, 2025vs WSH55 − 23W
Jan 19, 2025vs LAR28 − 22W
Jan 12, 2025vs GB22 − 10W
Jan 5, 2025vs NYG20 − 13W
Dec 29, 2024vs DAL41 − 7W
Dec 22, 2024at WSH33 − 36L

TB · Last 10

8−2 · streak W3
Sep 21, 2025vs NYJ29 − 27W
Sep 15, 2025at HOU20 − 19W
Sep 7, 2025at ATL23 − 20W
Jan 12, 2025vs WSH20 − 23L
Jan 5, 2025vs NO27 − 19W
Dec 29, 2024vs CAR48 − 14W
Dec 22, 2024at DAL24 − 26L
Dec 15, 2024at LAC40 − 17W
Dec 8, 2024vs LV28 − 13W
Dec 1, 2024at CAR26 − 23W