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Titans at Texans

NFL · Sunday, Sep 28 · 12:00 PM CT · Reliant Stadium · Final TEN 0 – HOU 26
← NFL / Sep 28, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
TEN00000
HOU3302026
Team box
TEN·HOU
175
total yards
353
93
passing yards
224
82
rushing yards
129
10
first downs
20
2-11
third downs
6-15
1
turnovers
0
21:39
time of possession
38:21
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Cam WardTEN10/2610801
C.J. StroudHOU22/2823320
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Tony PollardTEN14640
Woody MarksHOU17691
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Elic AyomanorTEN2440
Nico CollinsHOU4790

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
HOU +26
TEN +26
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: HOU 26 · TEN 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was TEN 22%, HOU 78% · Updated Sep 28, 2025

Expected margin
HOU by 11.8
Expected score
HOU 25.5 – 13.7 TEN
Expected total
39.2
TitansThe matchupTexans
+356Our fair odds−356
13.7Expected points25.5
−1.21Power rating−0.14
17.0Points / game12.7
31.3Allowed / game17.0
222Total yards / game267
3.5Yards / play5.0
134Passing yards / game172
0−3Season record0−3
1−9Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
TEN chance · HOU chance
Our model fair21.9%78.1%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
TENTennessee Titans+35622%————
HOUHouston Texans−35678%————
SpreadHOU by 11.8
TENTennessee Titans+11.8our margin————
HOUHouston Texans−11.8our margin————
Totalwe expect 39.2
Over39.2our total————
Under39.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Houston Texans by 11.8 expected
Tennessee Titans by 49 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 48 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 47 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 46 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 45 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 44 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 43 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 42 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 41 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 40 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 39 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 38 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 37 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 36 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 35 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 34 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 33 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 32 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 31 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 30 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 29 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 28 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 27 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 26 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 25 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 24 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 23 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 22 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 21 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 20 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 19 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 18 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 17 points: 1%Tennessee Titans by 16 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 15 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 14 points: 1%Tennessee Titans by 13 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 12 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 11 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 10 points: 1%Tennessee Titans by 9 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 8 points: 1%Tennessee Titans by 7 points: 2%Tennessee Titans by 6 points: 1%Tennessee Titans by 5 points: 1%Tennessee Titans by 4 points: 2%Tennessee Titans by 3 points: 5%Tennessee Titans by 2 points: 1%Tennessee Titans by 1 point: 2%Tie: <1%Houston Texans by 1 point: 2%Houston Texans by 2 points: 3%Houston Texans by 3 points: 6%Houston Texans by 4 points: 2%Houston Texans by 5 points: 2%Houston Texans by 6 points: 4%Houston Texans by 7 points: 4%Houston Texans by 8 points: 3%Houston Texans by 9 points: 1%Houston Texans by 10 points: 2%Houston Texans by 11 points: 1%Houston Texans by 12 points: 2%Houston Texans by 13 points: 2%Houston Texans by 14 points: 3%Houston Texans by 15 points: 2%Houston Texans by 16 points: 1%Houston Texans by 17 points: 4%Houston Texans by 18 points: 2%Houston Texans by 19 points: 1%Houston Texans by 20 points: 2%Houston Texans by 21 points: 2%Houston Texans by 22 points: 1%Houston Texans by 23 points: 2%Houston Texans by 24 points: 3%Houston Texans by 25 points: 2%Houston Texans by 26 points: 1%Houston Texans by 27 points: 1%Houston Texans by 28 points: 2%Houston Texans by 29 points: 1%Houston Texans by 30 points: 1%Houston Texans by 31 points: 3%Houston Texans by 32 points: 1%Houston Texans by 33 points: <1%Houston Texans by 34 points: 2%Houston Texans by 35 points: 1%Houston Texans by 36 points: 1%Houston Texans by 37 points: 1%Houston Texans by 38 points: 1%Houston Texans by 39 points: <1%Houston Texans by 40 points: 1%Houston Texans by 41 points: <1%Houston Texans by 42 points: 1%Houston Texans by 43 points: <1%Houston Texans by 44 points: <1%Houston Texans by 45 points: <1%Houston Texans by 46 points: <1%Houston Texans by 47 points: <1%Houston Texans by 48 points: <1%Houston Texans by 49 points: <1%
← TEN wins byHOU wins by →
Houston Texans wins by 3 or more74%
Houston Texans wins by 7 or more60%
Houston Texans wins by 10 or more51%
Within 3 points either way18%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

39.2 expected
6 points: <1%7 points: <1%8 points: <1%9 points: <1%10 points: <1%11 points: <1%12 points: <1%13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: 1%17 points: 1%18 points: 1%19 points: 1%20 points: 1%21 points: 1%22 points: 1%23 points: 2%24 points: 2%25 points: 2%26 points: 2%27 points: 2%28 points: 2%29 points: 3%30 points: 3%31 points: 2%32 points: 3%33 points: 3%34 points: 3%35 points: 3%36 points: 3%37 points: 3%38 points: 3%39 points: 3%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 3%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 2%46 points: 2%47 points: 2%48 points: 2%49 points: 2%50 points: 2%51 points: 2%52 points: 2%53 points: 1%54 points: 1%55 points: 1%56 points: 1%57 points: 1%58 points: 1%59 points: 1%60 points: 1%61 points: 1%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: <1%65 points: 1%66 points: <1%67 points: <1%68 points: <1%69 points: <1%70 points: <1%71 points: <1%72 points: <1%73 points: <1%74 points: <1%75 points: <1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%78 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 32.569%
Total over 39.547%
Total over 46.528%
Total from 33 to 4641%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
TENCam Ward · last 3 games: 55% completions, 169 yds/game, 2 TD, 1 INTstarted
HOUC.J. Stroud · last 3 games: 64% completions, 200 yds/game, 2 TD, 3 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
TEN·HOU
Sep 21, 2025 vs IND
last game
Sep 21, 2025 at JAX
6 days
days of rest
6 days
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 3+ games
TEN·HOU
−1.21
rating (0 = average)
−0.14
17.0
points / game
12.7
31.3
points allowed / game
17.0
0−3
season record
0−3
0−2
home record
0−1
0−1
away record
0−2
L3
streak
L3
1−9
last 10
4−6
222
total yards / game
267
3.5
yards / play
5.0
134
passing yards / game
172
89
rushing yards / game
95
15.3
first downs / game
14.3
1.3
turnovers / game
1.7

Rating Trend

TEN · HOU · 8 days
Tennessee TitansHouston Texans
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 8 meetings · HOU 5−3
Jan 5, 2025at TENHOU 23 − 14
Nov 24, 2024at HOUTEN 32 − 27
Dec 31, 2023at HOUHOU 26 − 3
Dec 17, 2023at TENHOU 19 − 16
Dec 24, 2022at TENHOU 19 − 14
Oct 30, 2022at HOUTEN 17 − 10
Jan 9, 2022at HOUTEN 28 − 25
Nov 21, 2021at TENHOU 22 − 13

TEN · Last 10

1−9 · streak L9
Sep 21, 2025vs IND20 − 41L
Sep 14, 2025vs LAR19 − 33L
Sep 7, 2025at DEN12 − 20L
Jan 5, 2025vs HOU14 − 23L
Dec 29, 2024at JAX13 − 20L
Dec 22, 2024at IND30 − 38L
Dec 15, 2024vs CIN27 − 37L
Dec 8, 2024vs JAX6 − 10L
Dec 1, 2024at WSH19 − 42L
Nov 24, 2024at HOU32 − 27W

HOU · Last 10

4−6 · streak L4
Sep 21, 2025at JAX10 − 17L
Sep 15, 2025vs TB19 − 20L
Sep 7, 2025at LAR9 − 14L
Jan 18, 2025at KC14 − 23L
Jan 11, 2025vs LAC32 − 12W
Jan 5, 2025at TEN23 − 14W
Dec 25, 2024vs BAL2 − 31L
Dec 21, 2024at KC19 − 27L
Dec 15, 2024vs MIA20 − 12W
Dec 1, 2024at JAX23 − 20W