bayesRatings

Commanders at Falcons

NFL · Sunday, Sep 28 · 12:00 PM CT · Mercedes-Benz Stadium · Final WSH 27 – ATL 34
← NFL / Sep 28, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
WSH01061127
ATL10714334
Team box
WSH·ATL
294
total yards
435
147
passing yards
307
147
rushing yards
128
17
first downs
24
1-8
third downs
6-12
1
turnovers
1
25:45
time of possession
34:15
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Marcus MariotaWSH16/2715621
Michael Penix Jr.ATL20/2631321
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Chris Rodriguez Jr.WSH7590
Bijan RobinsonATL17751
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Deebo Samuel Sr.WSH6721
Drake LondonATL81101

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ATL +15
WSH +15
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: ATL 15 · WSH 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was WSH 56%, ATL 44% · Updated Sep 28, 2025

Expected margin
WSH by 3.1
Expected score
WSH 25.1 – 22.0 ATL
Expected total
47.1
CommandersThe matchupFalcons
−128Our fair odds+128
25.1Expected points22.0
+0.31Power rating−0.30
26.7Points / game14.0
19.0Allowed / game19.7
354Total yards / game339
5.8Yards / play5.1
197Passing yards / game199
2−1Season record1−2
8−2Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
WSH chance · ATL chance
Our model fair56.1%43.9%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
WSHWashington Commanders−12856%————
ATLAtlanta Falcons+12844%————
SpreadWSH by 3.1
WSHWashington Commanders−3.1our margin————
ATLAtlanta Falcons+3.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 47.1
Over47.1our total————
Under47.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Washington Commanders by 3.1 expected
Washington Commanders by 39 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 38 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 37 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 36 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 35 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 34 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 33 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 32 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 31 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 30 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 29 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 28 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 27 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 26 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 25 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 24 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 23 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 22 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 21 points: 2%Washington Commanders by 20 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 19 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 18 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 17 points: 2%Washington Commanders by 16 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 15 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 14 points: 4%Washington Commanders by 13 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 12 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 11 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 10 points: 3%Washington Commanders by 9 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 8 points: 2%Washington Commanders by 7 points: 5%Washington Commanders by 6 points: 4%Washington Commanders by 5 points: 3%Washington Commanders by 4 points: 3%Washington Commanders by 3 points: 9%Washington Commanders by 2 points: 2%Washington Commanders by 1 point: 3%Tie: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 1 point: 2%Atlanta Falcons by 2 points: 3%Atlanta Falcons by 3 points: 7%Atlanta Falcons by 4 points: 2%Atlanta Falcons by 5 points: 2%Atlanta Falcons by 6 points: 4%Atlanta Falcons by 7 points: 3%Atlanta Falcons by 8 points: 2%Atlanta Falcons by 9 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 10 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 11 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 12 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 13 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 14 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 15 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 16 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 17 points: 2%Atlanta Falcons by 18 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 19 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 20 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 21 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 22 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 23 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 24 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 25 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 26 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 27 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 28 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 29 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 30 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 31 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 32 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 33 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 34 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 35 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 36 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 37 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 38 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 39 points: <1%
← WSH wins byATL wins by →
Washington Commanders wins by 3 or more55%
Washington Commanders wins by 7 or more36%
Washington Commanders wins by 10 or more28%
Within 3 points either way26%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

47.1 expected
13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: <1%17 points: <1%18 points: <1%19 points: <1%20 points: <1%21 points: <1%22 points: 1%23 points: 1%24 points: 1%25 points: 1%26 points: 1%27 points: 1%28 points: 1%29 points: 1%30 points: 2%31 points: 1%32 points: 2%33 points: 2%34 points: 2%35 points: 2%36 points: 2%37 points: 3%38 points: 2%39 points: 2%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 2%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 3%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 2%58 points: 2%59 points: 2%60 points: 2%61 points: 2%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: 1%65 points: 1%66 points: 1%67 points: 1%68 points: 1%69 points: 1%70 points: 1%71 points: 1%72 points: 1%73 points: 1%74 points: 1%75 points: 1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%78 points: <1%79 points: <1%80 points: <1%81 points: <1%82 points: <1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%85 points: <1%86 points: <1%87 points: <1%88 points: <1%89 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 40.566%
Total over 47.546%
Total over 54.529%
Total from 41 to 5437%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
WSHMarcus Mariota · last 3 games: 77% completions, 191 yds/game, 5 TD, 0 INTstarted
ATLMichael Penix Jr. · last 3 games: 59% completions, 202 yds/game, 1 TD, 2 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
WSH·ATL
Sep 21, 2025 vs LV
last game
Sep 21, 2025 at CAR
6 days
days of rest
6 days
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 3+ games
WSH·ATL
+0.31
rating (0 = average)
−0.30
26.7
points / game
14.0
19.0
points allowed / game
19.7
2−1
season record
1−2
2−0
home record
0−1
0−1
away record
1−1
W1
streak
L1
8−2
last 10
3−7
354
total yards / game
339
5.8
yards / play
5.1
197
passing yards / game
199
157
rushing yards / game
139
19.0
first downs / game
19.7
0.3
turnovers / game
1.3

Rating Trend

WSH · ATL · 8 days
Washington CommandersAtlanta Falcons
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 4 meetings · ATL 0−4
Dec 29, 2024at WSHWSH 30 − 24
Oct 15, 2023at ATLWSH 24 − 16
Nov 27, 2022at WSHWSH 19 − 13
Oct 3, 2021at ATLWSH 34 − 30

WSH · Last 10

8−2 · streak W1
Sep 21, 2025vs LV41 − 24W
Sep 11, 2025at GB18 − 27L
Sep 7, 2025vs NYG21 − 6W
Jan 26, 2025at PHI23 − 55L
Jan 18, 2025at DET45 − 31W
Jan 12, 2025at TB23 − 20W
Jan 5, 2025at DAL23 − 19W
Dec 29, 2024vs ATL30 − 24W
Dec 22, 2024vs PHI36 − 33W
Dec 15, 2024at NO20 − 19W

ATL · Last 10

3−7 · streak L1
Sep 21, 2025at CAR0 − 30L
Sep 14, 2025at MIN22 − 6W
Sep 7, 2025vs TB20 − 23L
Jan 5, 2025vs CAR38 − 44L
Dec 29, 2024at WSH24 − 30L
Dec 22, 2024vs NYG34 − 7W
Dec 16, 2024at LV15 − 9W
Dec 8, 2024at MIN21 − 42L
Dec 1, 2024vs LAC13 − 17L
Nov 17, 2024at DEN6 − 38L