bayesRatings

Bengals at Broncos

NFL · Monday, Sep 29 · 7:15 PM CT · Empower Field at Mile High · Final CIN 3 – DEN 28
← NFL / Sep 29, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
CIN30003
DEN7140728
Team box
CIN·DEN
159
total yards
512
106
passing yards
326
53
rushing yards
186
9
first downs
29
2-11
third downs
8-14
0
turnovers
1
22:02
time of possession
37:58
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Jake BrowningCIN14/2512500
Bo NixDEN29/4232621
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Chase BrownCIN10400
J.K. DobbinsDEN161010
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Tee HigginsCIN3320
Courtland SuttonDEN5811

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
DEN +25
CIN +25
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: DEN 25 · CIN 3lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CIN 39%, DEN 61% · Updated Sep 29, 2025

Expected margin
DEN by 6.5
Expected score
DEN 27.0 – 20.5 CIN
Expected total
47.5
BengalsThe matchupBroncos
+157Our fair odds−157
20.5Expected points27.0
−0.02Power rating+0.13
19.3Points / game22.7
30.3Allowed / game21.3
221Total yards / game302
3.9Yards / play5.3
172Passing yards / game173
2−1Season record1−2
7−3Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CIN chance · DEN chance
Our model fair38.9%61.1%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CINCincinnati Bengals+15739%————
DENDenver Broncos−15761%————
SpreadDEN by 6.5
CINCincinnati Bengals+6.5our margin————
DENDenver Broncos−6.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 47.5
Over47.5our total————
Under47.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Denver Broncos by 6.5 expected
Cincinnati Bengals by 46 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 45 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 44 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 43 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 42 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 41 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 40 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 39 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 38 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 37 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 36 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 35 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 34 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 33 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 32 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 31 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 30 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 29 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 28 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 27 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 26 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 25 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 24 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 23 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 22 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 21 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 20 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 19 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 18 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 17 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 16 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 15 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 14 points: 2%Cincinnati Bengals by 13 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 12 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 11 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 10 points: 2%Cincinnati Bengals by 9 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 8 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 7 points: 3%Cincinnati Bengals by 6 points: 2%Cincinnati Bengals by 5 points: 2%Cincinnati Bengals by 4 points: 2%Cincinnati Bengals by 3 points: 7%Cincinnati Bengals by 2 points: 2%Cincinnati Bengals by 1 point: 2%Tie: <1%Denver Broncos by 1 point: 2%Denver Broncos by 2 points: 3%Denver Broncos by 3 points: 7%Denver Broncos by 4 points: 2%Denver Broncos by 5 points: 2%Denver Broncos by 6 points: 4%Denver Broncos by 7 points: 4%Denver Broncos by 8 points: 3%Denver Broncos by 9 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 10 points: 2%Denver Broncos by 11 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 12 points: 2%Denver Broncos by 13 points: 2%Denver Broncos by 14 points: 2%Denver Broncos by 15 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 16 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 17 points: 4%Denver Broncos by 18 points: 2%Denver Broncos by 19 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 20 points: 2%Denver Broncos by 21 points: 2%Denver Broncos by 22 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 23 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 24 points: 2%Denver Broncos by 25 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 26 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 27 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 28 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 29 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 30 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 31 points: 2%Denver Broncos by 32 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 33 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 34 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 35 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 36 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 37 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 38 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 39 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 40 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 41 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 42 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 43 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 44 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 45 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 46 points: <1%
← CIN wins byDEN wins by →
Denver Broncos wins by 3 or more61%
Denver Broncos wins by 7 or more46%
Denver Broncos wins by 10 or more37%
Within 3 points either way23%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

47.5 expected
13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: <1%17 points: <1%18 points: <1%19 points: <1%20 points: <1%21 points: <1%22 points: 1%23 points: 1%24 points: 1%25 points: 1%26 points: 1%27 points: 1%28 points: 1%29 points: 1%30 points: 2%31 points: 1%32 points: 2%33 points: 2%34 points: 2%35 points: 2%36 points: 2%37 points: 3%38 points: 2%39 points: 2%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 2%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 3%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 2%58 points: 2%59 points: 2%60 points: 2%61 points: 2%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: 1%65 points: 1%66 points: 1%67 points: 1%68 points: 1%69 points: 1%70 points: 1%71 points: 1%72 points: 1%73 points: 1%74 points: 1%75 points: 1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%78 points: <1%79 points: <1%80 points: <1%81 points: <1%82 points: <1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%85 points: <1%86 points: <1%87 points: <1%88 points: <1%89 points: <1%90 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 40.567%
Total over 47.547%
Total over 54.530%
Total from 41 to 5437%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
CINJake Browning · last 3 games: 70% completions, 179 yds/game, 6 TD, 6 INTstarted
DENBo Nix · last 3 games: 64% completions, 178 yds/game, 5 TD, 3 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CIN·DEN
Sep 21, 2025 at MIN
last game
Sep 21, 2025 at LAC
7 days
days of rest
7 days
2nd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 3+ games
CIN·DEN
−0.02
rating (0 = average)
+0.13
19.3
points / game
22.7
30.3
points allowed / game
21.3
2−1
season record
1−2
1−0
home record
1−0
1−1
away record
0−2
L1
streak
L2
7−3
last 10
5−5
221
total yards / game
302
3.9
yards / play
5.3
172
passing yards / game
173
49
rushing yards / game
129
15.7
first downs / game
17.3
2.7
turnovers / game
1.7

Rating Trend

CIN · DEN · 9 days
Cincinnati BengalsDenver Broncos
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 2 meetings · DEN 0−2
Dec 28, 2024at CINCIN 30 − 24
Dec 19, 2021at DENCIN 15 − 10

CIN · Last 10

7−3 · streak L1
Sep 21, 2025at MIN10 − 48L
Sep 14, 2025vs JAX31 − 27W
Sep 7, 2025at CLE17 − 16W
Jan 4, 2025at PIT19 − 17W
Dec 28, 2024vs DEN30 − 24W
Dec 22, 2024vs CLE24 − 6W
Dec 15, 2024at TEN37 − 27W
Dec 9, 2024at DAL27 − 20W
Dec 1, 2024vs PIT38 − 44L
Nov 17, 2024at LAC27 − 34L

DEN · Last 10

5−5 · streak L2
Sep 21, 2025at LAC20 − 23L
Sep 14, 2025at IND28 − 29L
Sep 7, 2025vs TEN20 − 12W
Jan 12, 2025at BUF7 − 31L
Jan 5, 2025vs KC38 − 0W
Dec 28, 2024at CIN24 − 30L
Dec 19, 2024at LAC27 − 34L
Dec 15, 2024vs IND31 − 13W
Dec 2, 2024vs CLE41 − 32W
Nov 24, 2024at LV29 − 19W