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Jets at Dolphins

NFL · Monday, Sep 29 · 6:15 PM CT · Hard Rock Stadium · Final NYJ 21 – MIA 27
← NFL / Sep 29, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
NYJ0371121
MIA3714327
Team box
NYJ·MIA
404
total yards
300
207
passing yards
177
197
rushing yards
123
23
first downs
19
4-9
third downs
4-12
3
turnovers
0
29:12
time of possession
30:48
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Justin FieldsNYJ20/2722610
Tua TagovailoaMIA17/2517720
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Justin FieldsNYJ7811
De'Von AchaneMIA20991
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Garrett WilsonNYJ6821
Tyreek HillMIA6670

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIA +14
NYJ +14
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: MIA 14 · NYJ 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NYJ 38%, MIA 62% · Updated Sep 29, 2025

Expected margin
MIA by 4.5
Expected score
MIA 25.6 – 21.1 NYJ
Expected total
46.6
JetsThe matchupDolphins
+166Our fair odds−166
21.1Expected points25.6
−0.65Power rating−0.43
23.0Points / game18.7
31.0Allowed / game32.3
272Total yards / game282
4.6Yards / play5.4
145Passing yards / game192
0−3Season record0−3
2−8Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NYJ chance · MIA chance
Our model fair37.6%62.4%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NYJNew York Jets+16638%————
MIAMiami Dolphins−16662%————
SpreadMIA by 4.5
NYJNew York Jets+4.5our margin————
MIAMiami Dolphins−4.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 46.6
Over46.6our total————
Under46.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Miami Dolphins by 4.5 expected
New York Jets by 44 points: <1%New York Jets by 43 points: <1%New York Jets by 42 points: <1%New York Jets by 41 points: <1%New York Jets by 40 points: <1%New York Jets by 39 points: <1%New York Jets by 38 points: <1%New York Jets by 37 points: <1%New York Jets by 36 points: <1%New York Jets by 35 points: <1%New York Jets by 34 points: <1%New York Jets by 33 points: <1%New York Jets by 32 points: <1%New York Jets by 31 points: <1%New York Jets by 30 points: <1%New York Jets by 29 points: <1%New York Jets by 28 points: <1%New York Jets by 27 points: <1%New York Jets by 26 points: <1%New York Jets by 25 points: <1%New York Jets by 24 points: 1%New York Jets by 23 points: 1%New York Jets by 22 points: <1%New York Jets by 21 points: 1%New York Jets by 20 points: 1%New York Jets by 19 points: <1%New York Jets by 18 points: 1%New York Jets by 17 points: 1%New York Jets by 16 points: 1%New York Jets by 15 points: <1%New York Jets by 14 points: 2%New York Jets by 13 points: <1%New York Jets by 12 points: 1%New York Jets by 11 points: 1%New York Jets by 10 points: 2%New York Jets by 9 points: <1%New York Jets by 8 points: 2%New York Jets by 7 points: 4%New York Jets by 6 points: 3%New York Jets by 5 points: 2%New York Jets by 4 points: 3%New York Jets by 3 points: 7%New York Jets by 2 points: 2%New York Jets by 1 point: 3%Tie: <1%Miami Dolphins by 1 point: 2%Miami Dolphins by 2 points: 3%Miami Dolphins by 3 points: 7%Miami Dolphins by 4 points: 2%Miami Dolphins by 5 points: 2%Miami Dolphins by 6 points: 4%Miami Dolphins by 7 points: 4%Miami Dolphins by 8 points: 3%Miami Dolphins by 9 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 10 points: 2%Miami Dolphins by 11 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 12 points: 2%Miami Dolphins by 13 points: 2%Miami Dolphins by 14 points: 2%Miami Dolphins by 15 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 16 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 17 points: 3%Miami Dolphins by 18 points: 2%Miami Dolphins by 19 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 20 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 21 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 22 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 23 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 24 points: 2%Miami Dolphins by 25 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 26 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 27 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 28 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 29 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 30 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 31 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 32 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 33 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 34 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 35 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 36 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 37 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 38 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 39 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 40 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 41 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 42 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 43 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 44 points: <1%
← NYJ wins byMIA wins by →
Miami Dolphins wins by 3 or more56%
Miami Dolphins wins by 7 or more40%
Miami Dolphins wins by 10 or more32%
Within 3 points either way24%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

46.6 expected
12 points: <1%13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: <1%17 points: <1%18 points: <1%19 points: <1%20 points: <1%21 points: <1%22 points: 1%23 points: 1%24 points: 1%25 points: 1%26 points: 1%27 points: 1%28 points: 1%29 points: 1%30 points: 2%31 points: 2%32 points: 2%33 points: 2%34 points: 2%35 points: 2%36 points: 2%37 points: 3%38 points: 2%39 points: 2%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 3%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 3%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 2%58 points: 2%59 points: 2%60 points: 2%61 points: 2%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: 1%65 points: 1%66 points: 1%67 points: 1%68 points: 1%69 points: 1%70 points: 1%71 points: 1%72 points: 1%73 points: 1%74 points: 1%75 points: <1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%78 points: <1%79 points: <1%80 points: <1%81 points: <1%82 points: <1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%85 points: <1%86 points: <1%87 points: <1%88 points: <1%89 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 39.568%
Total over 46.548%
Total over 53.530%
Total from 40 to 5338%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
NYJJustin Fields · last 3 games: 56% completions, 82 yds/game, 1 TD, 0 INTstarted
MIATua Tagovailoa · last 3 games: 70% completions, 192 yds/game, 5 TD, 4 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NYJ·MIA
Sep 21, 2025 at TB
last game
Sep 18, 2025 at BUF
7 days
days of rest
10 days
2nd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 3+ games
NYJ·MIA
−0.65
rating (0 = average)
−0.43
23.0
points / game
18.7
31.0
points allowed / game
32.3
0−3
season record
0−3
0−2
home record
0−1
0−1
away record
0−2
L3
streak
L3
2−8
last 10
4−6
272
total yards / game
282
4.6
yards / play
5.4
145
passing yards / game
192
127
rushing yards / game
90
18.3
first downs / game
15.7
1.3
turnovers / game
1.7

Rating Trend

NYJ · MIA · 9 days
New York JetsMiami Dolphins
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 8 meetings · MIA 6−2
Jan 5, 2025at NYJNYJ 32 − 20
Dec 8, 2024at MIAMIA 32 − 26
Dec 17, 2023at MIAMIA 30 − 0
Nov 24, 2023at NYJMIA 34 − 13
Jan 8, 2023at MIAMIA 11 − 6
Oct 9, 2022at NYJNYJ 40 − 17
Dec 19, 2021at MIAMIA 31 − 24
Nov 21, 2021at NYJMIA 24 − 17

NYJ · Last 10

2−8 · streak L3
Sep 21, 2025at TB27 − 29L
Sep 14, 2025vs BUF10 − 30L
Sep 7, 2025vs PIT32 − 34L
Jan 5, 2025vs MIA32 − 20W
Dec 29, 2024at BUF14 − 40L
Dec 22, 2024vs LAR9 − 19L
Dec 15, 2024at JAX32 − 25W
Dec 8, 2024at MIA26 − 32L
Dec 1, 2024vs SEA21 − 26L
Nov 17, 2024vs IND27 − 28L

MIA · Last 10

4−6 · streak L4
Sep 18, 2025at BUF21 − 31L
Sep 14, 2025vs NE27 − 33L
Sep 7, 2025at IND8 − 33L
Jan 5, 2025at NYJ20 − 32L
Dec 29, 2024at CLE20 − 3W
Dec 22, 2024vs SF29 − 17W
Dec 15, 2024at HOU12 − 20L
Dec 8, 2024vs NYJ32 − 26W
Nov 28, 2024at GB17 − 30L
Nov 24, 2024vs NE34 − 15W