bayesRatings

Jets at Panthers

NHL · Saturday, Jan 31 · 3:00 PM CT · Amerant Bank Arena · Final WPG 2 – FLA 1

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123T
WPG0022
FLA1001
Team box
WPG·FLA
21
shots
28
0 of 5
power play
0 of 2
58.8
faceoff %
41.2
18
hits
30
14
blocked shots
7
4
penalty minutes
10
Top performers
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Eric ComrieWPG2827.964
Sergei BobrovskyFLA2119.905

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
FLA +3
WPG +3
P1P2P3
largest lead: FLA 1 · WPG 1lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was WPG 42%, FLA 58% · Updated Jan 31

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
FLA 3.1 – 2.6 WPG
Expected total
5.7
JetsThe matchupPanthers
+136Our fair odds−136
2.6Expected goals3.1
+0.01Power rating+0.16
2.9Goals / game3.1
3.1Allowed / game3.3
26.2Shots / game28.8
50.5Faceoff %47.3
22.6Hits / game25.2
21−32Season record28−25
5−5Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
WPG chance · FLA chance
Our model fair42.4%57.6%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
WPGWinnipeg Jets+13642%————
FLAFlorida Panthers−13658%————
Spreadabout even
WPGWinnipeg Jets+0.4our margin————
FLAFlorida Panthers−0.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 5.7
Over5.7our total————
Under5.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Winnipeg Jets by 6 goals: <1%Winnipeg Jets by 5 goals: 1%Winnipeg Jets by 4 goals: 4%Winnipeg Jets by 3 goals: 9%Winnipeg Jets by 2 goals: 9%Winnipeg Jets by 1 goal: 20%Florida Panthers by 1 goal: 24%Florida Panthers by 2 goals: 11%Florida Panthers by 3 goals: 13%Florida Panthers by 4 goals: 7%Florida Panthers by 5 goals: 2%Florida Panthers by 6 goals: <1%
← WPG wins byFLA wins by →
Florida Panthers wins by 2 or more33%
Florida Panthers wins by 3 or more22%
Winnipeg Jets wins by 2 or more23%
Decided by one goal44%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

5.7 expected
1 goals: 3%2 goals: 3%3 goals: 14%4 goals: 10%5 goals: 23%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 17%8 goals: 6%9 goals: 8%10 goals: 2%11 goals: 2%12 goals: 1%13 goals: <1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 4.570%
Total over 5.548%
Total over 6.537%
Total from 5 to 634%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
WPGEric Comrie G · last 5 starts: .857 save %, 3.46 GAAstarted
FLASergei Bobrovsky G · last 5 starts: .833 save %, 4.20 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
WPG·FLA
Jan 29 at TB
last game
Jan 29 at STL
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
4
3rd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 53+ games
WPG·FLA
+0.01
rating (0 = average)
+0.16
2.9
goals / game
3.1
3.1
goals allowed / game
3.3
21−32
season record
28−25
12−15
home record
14−14
9−17
away record
14−11
L1
streak
L2
5−5
last 10
6−4
26.2
shots / game
28.8
50.5
faceoff %
47.3
22.6
hits / game
25.2
14.5
blocked shots / game
12.2
4.1
takeaways / game
4.3
14.5
giveaways / game
14.2

Rating Trend

WPG · FLA · 106 days
Winnipeg JetsFlorida Panthers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · FLA 4−5
Jan 22at WPGFLA 2 − 1 SO
Nov 19, 2024at WPGWPG 6 − 3
Nov 16, 2024at FLAFLA 5 − 0
Nov 24, 2023at FLAWPG 3 − 0
Oct 14, 2023at WPGWPG 6 − 4
Mar 11, 2023at FLAWPG 5 − 4 OT
Dec 6, 2022at WPGWPG 5 − 2
Apr 15, 2022at FLAFLA 6 − 1
Jan 25, 2022at WPGFLA 5 − 3

WPG · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Jan 29at TB1 − 4L
Jan 27at NJ4 − 3W
Jan 24vs DET1 − 5L
Jan 22vs FLA1 − 2L
Jan 20vs STL3 − 1W
Jan 19at CHI0 − 2L
Jan 17vs TOR3 − 4L
Jan 15at MIN6 − 2W
Jan 13vs NYI5 − 4W
Jan 11vs NJ4 − 3W

FLA · Last 10

6−4 · streak L2
Jan 29at STL4 − 5L
Jan 27vs UTAH3 − 4L
Jan 25at CHI5 − 1W
Jan 24at MIN4 − 3W
Jan 22at WPG2 − 1W
Jan 19vs SJ1 − 4L
Jan 17at WSH5 − 2W
Jan 16at CAR1 − 9L
Jan 12at BUF4 − 3W
Jan 10at OTT3 − 2W