bayesRatings

Red Wings at Jets

NHL · Saturday, Jan 24 · 6:00 PM CT · Canada Life Centre · Final DET 5 – WPG 1

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123T
DET0145
WPG0101
Team box
DET·WPG
31
shots
27
0 of 3
power play
0 of 1
55.0
faceoff %
45.0
22
hits
22
14
blocked shots
15
2
penalty minutes
6
Top performers
PlayerTeamGASOG
J.T. CompherDET204
Lucas RaymondDET113
Marco KasperDET113
Andrew CoppDET021
Alex DeBrincatDET104
Cole KoepkeWPG101
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
John GibsonDET2726.963
Connor HellebuyckWPG3026.867

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
WPG +4
DET +4
P1P2P3
largest lead: WPG 1 · DET 4lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was DET 46%, WPG 54% · Updated Jan 24

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
WPG 3.2 – 2.8 DET
Expected total
6.0
Red WingsThe matchupJets
+119Our fair odds−119
2.8Expected goals3.2
+0.03Power rating+0.03
3.1Goals / game3.0
3.0Allowed / game3.1
28.5Shots / game26.2
50.9Faceoff %50.6
17.4Hits / game22.4
31−21Season record20−30
7−3Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
DET chance · WPG chance
Our model fair45.7%54.3%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
DETDetroit Red Wings+11946%————
WPGWinnipeg Jets−11954%————
Spreadabout even
DETDetroit Red Wings+0.4our margin————
WPGWinnipeg Jets−0.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 6.0
Over6.0our total————
Under6.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Detroit Red Wings by 6 goals: <1%Detroit Red Wings by 5 goals: 1%Detroit Red Wings by 4 goals: 4%Detroit Red Wings by 3 goals: 9%Detroit Red Wings by 2 goals: 8%Detroit Red Wings by 1 goal: 23%Winnipeg Jets by 1 goal: 19%Winnipeg Jets by 2 goals: 11%Winnipeg Jets by 3 goals: 13%Winnipeg Jets by 4 goals: 7%Winnipeg Jets by 5 goals: 3%Winnipeg Jets by 6 goals: 1%
← DET wins byWPG wins by →
Winnipeg Jets wins by 2 or more35%
Winnipeg Jets wins by 3 or more24%
Detroit Red Wings wins by 2 or more22%
Decided by one goal43%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

6.0 expected
1 goals: 2%2 goals: 3%3 goals: 12%4 goals: 9%5 goals: 22%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 18%8 goals: 7%9 goals: 9%10 goals: 3%11 goals: 3%12 goals: 1%13 goals: 1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 5.553%
Total over 6.542%
Total over 7.523%
Total from 6 to 729%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
DETJohn Gibson G · last 5 starts: .934 save %, 1.76 GAAstarted
WPGConnor Hellebuyck G · last 5 starts: .915 save %, 2.35 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
DET·WPG
Jan 22 at MIN
last game
Jan 22 vs FLA
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
4
3rd straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 50+ games
DET·WPG
+0.03
rating (0 = average)
+0.03
3.1
goals / game
3.0
3.0
goals allowed / game
3.1
31−21
season record
20−30
18−9
home record
12−14
13−12
away record
8−16
L1
streak
L1
7−3
last 10
5−5
28.5
shots / game
26.2
50.9
faceoff %
50.6
17.4
hits / game
22.4
16.7
blocked shots / game
14.4
4.2
takeaways / game
4.1
15.9
giveaways / game
14.4

Rating Trend

DET · WPG · 99 days
Detroit Red WingsWinnipeg Jets
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · WPG 5−4
Dec 31, 2025at DETDET 2 − 1
Jan 4, 2025at WPGDET 4 − 2
Oct 30, 2024at DETWPG 6 − 2
Dec 20, 2023at WPGWPG 5 − 2
Oct 26, 2023at DETWPG 4 − 1
Mar 31, 2023at WPGWPG 6 − 2
Jan 10, 2023at DETDET 7 − 5
Apr 6, 2022at WPGDET 3 − 1
Jan 13, 2022at DETWPG 3 − 0

DET · Last 10

7−3 · streak L1
Jan 22at MIN3 − 4L
Jan 21at TOR2 − 1W
Jan 18vs OTT4 − 3W
Jan 16vs SJ4 − 2W
Jan 13at BOS0 − 3L
Jan 12vs CAR4 − 3W
Jan 10at MTL4 − 0W
Jan 8vs VAN5 − 1W
Jan 5at OTT5 − 3W
Jan 3vs PIT1 − 4L

WPG · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Jan 22vs FLA1 − 2L
Jan 20vs STL3 − 1W
Jan 19at CHI0 − 2L
Jan 17vs TOR3 − 4L
Jan 15at MIN6 − 2W
Jan 13vs NYI5 − 4W
Jan 11vs NJ4 − 3W
Jan 9vs LA5 − 1W
Jan 8vs EDM3 − 4L
Jan 6vs VGK3 − 4L