bayesRatings

Jets at Devils

NHL · Tuesday, Jan 27 · 6:00 PM CT · Prudential Center · Final WPG 4 – NJ 3

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123T
WPG1304
NJ1113
Team box
WPG·NJ
26
shots
29
0 of 2
power play
1 of 2
52.1
faceoff %
47.9
24
hits
14
21
blocked shots
11
4
penalty minutes
4
Top performers
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Connor HellebuyckWPG2926.897
Jake AllenNJ2622.846

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
NJ +3
WPG +3
P1P2P3
largest lead: NJ 0 · WPG 3lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was WPG 48%, NJ 52% · Updated Jan 27

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
WPG 2.7 – 2.5 NJ
Expected total
5.2
JetsThe matchupDevils
+106Our fair odds−106
2.7Expected goals2.5
+0.01Power rating−0.09
2.9Goals / game2.7
3.1Allowed / game3.1
26.2Shots / game29.5
50.5Faceoff %50.6
22.4Hits / game19.3
20−31Season record27−25
5−5Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
WPG chance · NJ chance
Our model fair48.5%51.5%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
WPGWinnipeg Jets+10648%————
NJNew Jersey Devils−10652%————
Spreadabout even
WPGWinnipeg Jets−0.2our margin————
NJNew Jersey Devils+0.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 5.2
Over5.2our total————
Under5.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Winnipeg Jets by 5 goals: 2%Winnipeg Jets by 4 goals: 6%Winnipeg Jets by 3 goals: 12%Winnipeg Jets by 2 goals: 11%Winnipeg Jets by 1 goal: 18%New Jersey Devils by 1 goal: 28%New Jersey Devils by 2 goals: 9%New Jersey Devils by 3 goals: 9%New Jersey Devils by 4 goals: 4%New Jersey Devils by 5 goals: 1%
← WPG wins byNJ wins by →
Winnipeg Jets wins by 2 or more31%
Winnipeg Jets wins by 3 or more20%
New Jersey Devils wins by 2 or more22%
Decided by one goal46%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,071 past NHL games.

Total range

5.2 expected
1 goals: 4%2 goals: 4%3 goals: 18%4 goals: 11%5 goals: 24%6 goals: 10%7 goals: 15%8 goals: 5%9 goals: 5%10 goals: 1%11 goals: 1%12 goals: <1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 4.563%
Total over 5.539%
Total over 6.529%
Total from 5 to 634%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,071 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
WPGConnor Hellebuyck G · last 5 starts: .917 save %, 2.36 GAAstarted
NJJake Allen G · last 5 starts: .906 save %, 2.86 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
WPG·NJ
Jan 24 vs DET
last game
Jan 25 at SEA
2 days
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 51+ games
WPG·NJ
+0.01
rating (0 = average)
−0.09
2.9
goals / game
2.7
3.1
goals allowed / game
3.1
20−31
season record
27−25
12−15
home record
12−11
8−16
away record
15−14
L2
streak
L1
5−5
last 10
5−5
26.2
shots / game
29.5
50.5
faceoff %
50.6
22.4
hits / game
19.3
14.4
blocked shots / game
14.6
4.1
takeaways / game
4.6
14.4
giveaways / game
15.4

Rating Trend

WPG · NJ · 102 days
Winnipeg JetsNew Jersey Devils
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · NJ 2−7
Jan 11at WPGWPG 4 − 3
Mar 28, 2025at WPGWPG 4 − 0
Mar 7, 2025at NJWPG 6 − 1
Mar 21, 2024at NJNJ 4 − 1
Nov 14, 2023at WPGWPG 6 − 3
Apr 2, 2023at WPGWPG 6 − 1
Feb 19, 2023at NJNJ 4 − 2
Mar 10, 2022at NJWPG 2 − 1
Dec 3, 2021at WPGWPG 8 − 4

WPG · Last 10

5−5 · streak L2
Jan 24vs DET1 − 5L
Jan 22vs FLA1 − 2L
Jan 20vs STL3 − 1W
Jan 19at CHI0 − 2L
Jan 17vs TOR3 − 4L
Jan 15at MIN6 − 2W
Jan 13vs NYI5 − 4W
Jan 11vs NJ4 − 3W
Jan 9vs LA5 − 1W
Jan 8vs EDM3 − 4L

NJ · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Jan 25at SEA2 − 4L
Jan 23at VAN5 − 4W
Jan 20at EDM2 − 1W
Jan 19at CGY2 − 1W
Jan 17vs CAR1 − 4L
Jan 14vs SEA3 − 2W
Jan 12at MIN5 − 2W
Jan 11at WPG3 − 4L
Jan 8at PIT1 − 4L
Jan 6at NYI0 − 9L