bayesRatings

Wild at Mammoth

NHL · Tuesday, Oct 27 · 8:00 PM CT · Delta Center · Final MIN 3 – UTAH 1

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123T
MIN0123
UTAH0011
Team box
MIN·UTAH
30
shots
27
2 of 7
power play
0 of 4
38.0
faceoff %
62.0
24
hits
22
21
blocked shots
20
23
penalty minutes
29
Top performers
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Jesper WallstedtMIN2726.963
Karel VejmelkaUTAH3027.900

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
UTAH +3
MIN +3
P1P2P3
largest lead: UTAH 0 · MIN 3lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIN 50%, UTAH 50% · Updated Oct 27

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
MIN 3.2 – 3.2 UTAH
Expected total
6.4
WildThe matchupMammoth
+101Our fair odds−101
3.2Expected goals3.2
+0.20Power rating+0.10
3.2Goals / game3.8
2.3Allowed / game3.3
31.0Shots / game30.3
50.7Faceoff %53.9
22.3Hits / game27.6
8−5Season record8−4
6−4Last 106−4
Brock Faber · Filip Gustavsson
Marcus Foligno · Nick Foligno
OutJohn Marino · Maveric Lamoureux
Michael Carcone

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIN chance · UTAH chance
Our model fair49.6%50.4%
Kalshi50.7%53.7%
Polymarket US50.7%53.7%
ProphetX49.8%52.9%
Novig48.5%52.0%
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 8:00 PM CTPolymarket USpre-game · 7:59 PM CTProphetXpre-game · 7:59 PM CTNovigpre-game · 7:58 PM CT
Moneyline
MINMinnesota Wild+10150%−10350.7%−10350.7%+10149.8%+10648.5%
UTAHUtah Mammoth−10150%−11653.7%−11653.7%−11252.9%−10852.0%
Spreadabout even
MINMinnesota WildPKour margin+1.5 −25171.5%+1.5 −25071.5%+1.5 −24270.7%+1.5 −23370.0%
UTAHUtah MammothPKour margin−1.5 +20832.5%−1.5 +20832.5%−1.5 +21132.2%−1.5 +22331.0%
Totalwe expect 6.4
Over6.4our totalo6.5 −10350.7%o6.5 −10350.7%o6.5 −10050.0%o6.5 +10449.0%
Under6.4our totalu6.5 −11653.7%u6.5 −11653.7%u6.5 −11152.7%u6.5 −10852.0%

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Minnesota Wild by 6 goals: <1%Minnesota Wild by 5 goals: 2%Minnesota Wild by 4 goals: 6%Minnesota Wild by 3 goals: 11%Minnesota Wild by 2 goals: 10%Minnesota Wild by 1 goal: 20%Utah Mammoth by 1 goal: 21%Utah Mammoth by 2 goals: 10%Utah Mammoth by 3 goals: 11%Utah Mammoth by 4 goals: 6%Utah Mammoth by 5 goals: 2%Utah Mammoth by 6 goals: <1%
← MIN wins byUTAH wins by →
Minnesota Wild wins by 2 or more29%
Minnesota Wild wins by 3 or more20%
Utah Mammoth wins by 2 or more29%
Decided by one goal42%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

6.4 expected
1 goals: 1%2 goals: 2%3 goals: 10%4 goals: 8%5 goals: 20%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 19%8 goals: 8%9 goals: 11%10 goals: 4%11 goals: 4%12 goals: 1%13 goals: 1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 5.559%
Total over 6.548%
Total over 7.529%
Total from 6 to 730%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
MINJesper Wallstedt G · last 5 starts: .897 save %, 2.39 GAAstarted
UTAHKarel Vejmelka G · last 5 starts: .851 save %, 4.17 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIN·UTAH
Oct 25 at VAN
last game
Oct 24 vs TB
1 day
days of rest
2 days
no
back-to-back
no
4
games in last 7 days
2
5th straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

Injury list before the game · Oct 27, 2026, 6:40 PM CT
Minnesota Wild
MINBrock Faber · skull, back about Nov 3IR
MINFilip Gustavsson · hip, back about Nov 19IR
MINMarcus Foligno · lower body, back about Oct 29IR
MINNick Foligno · upper body, back about Oct 29IR
Utah Mammoth
UTAHJohn Marino · upper body, back about Nov 1Out
UTAHMaveric Lamoureux · shoulder, back about Feb 12, 2027IR
UTAHMichael Carcone · upper body, back about Nov 1IR

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026–27 season · box-score averages from 12+ games
MIN·UTAH
+0.20
rating (0 = average)
+0.10
3.2
goals / game
3.8
2.3
goals allowed / game
3.3
8−5
season record
8−4
4−0
home record
4−1
4−5
away record
4−3
W2
streak
W1
6−4
last 10
6−4
31.0
shots / game
30.3
50.7
faceoff %
53.9
22.3
hits / game
27.6
13.6
blocked shots / game
13.7
4.2
takeaways / game
3.6
16.9
giveaways / game
16.6

Rating Trend

MIN · UTAH · 28 days
Minnesota WildUtah Mammoth
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 7 meetings · UTAH 5−2
Mar 10at MINMIN 5 − 0
Feb 27at UTAHUTAH 5 − 2
Oct 25, 2025at MINUTAH 6 − 2
Feb 27, 2025at UTAHUTAH 6 − 1
Jan 23, 2025at MINUTAH 4 − 0
Dec 20, 2024at MINUTAH 2 − 1
Dec 10, 2024at UTAHMIN 5 − 4 SO

MIN · Last 10

6−4 · streak W2
Oct 25at VAN4 − 2W
Oct 24at SEA5 − 1W
Oct 22at CGY1 − 2L
Oct 20at EDM3 − 4L
Oct 18vs CBJ2 − 1W
Oct 15vs STL5 − 4W
Oct 13at WPG2 − 5L
Oct 12vs VGK4 − 2W
Oct 10at FLA4 − 1W
Oct 8at TB2 − 3L

UTAH · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Oct 24vs TB5 − 4W
Oct 22at SEA3 − 5L
Oct 19vs PIT5 − 4W
Oct 17vs EDM2 − 6L
Oct 15at EDM4 − 2W
Oct 13vs TOR5 − 4W
Oct 10at BUF4 − 1W
Oct 8at BOS1 − 6L
Oct 6at NJ5 − 3W
Oct 4at NYR2 − 4L