bayesRatings

Capitals at Predators

NHL · Thursday, Oct 29 · 7:00 PM CT · Bridgestone Arena · Final WSH 4 – NSH 3

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123T
WSH1214
NSH1113
Team box
WSH·NSH
29
shots
27
0 of 2
power play
1 of 3
39.3
faceoff %
60.7
23
hits
17
9
blocked shots
9
6
penalty minutes
4
Top performers
PlayerTeamGASOG
Roman JosiNSH036
Filip ForsbergNSH203
Cole HutsonWSH202
Aliaksei ProtasWSH020
Jack St. IvanyWSH020
Ross ColtonNSH103
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Charlie LindgrenWSH2724.889
Juuse SarosNSH2925.862

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
NSH +3
WSH +3
P1P2P3
largest lead: NSH 1 · WSH 1lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was WSH 50%, NSH 50% · Updated Oct 29

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
WSH 3.3 – 3.2 NSH
Expected total
6.4
CapitalsThe matchupPredators
−101Our fair odds+101
3.3Expected goals3.2
+0.17Power rating−0.12
3.5Goals / game2.8
3.1Allowed / game3.2
27.6Shots / game25.5
49.2Faceoff %49.7
22.5Hits / game23.2
7−4Season record4−8
6−4Last 103−7
Patrick Thomas · Rasmus Sandin
Vincent Desharnais
Out—

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
WSH chance · NSH chance
Our model fair50.2%49.8%
Kalshi52.7%51.7%
Polymarket US51.7%52.7%
ProphetX52.2%50.3%
Novig51.0%49.5%
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 7:00 PM CTPolymarket USpre-game · 6:59 PM CTProphetXpre-game · 6:57 PM CTNovigpre-game · 6:58 PM CT
Moneyline
WSHWashington Capitals−10150%−11252.7%−10751.7%−10952.2%−10451.0%
NSHNashville Predators+10150%−10751.8%−11252.7%−10150.3%+10249.5%
Spreadabout even
WSHWashington Capitals−0.1our margin−1.5 +20832.5%−1.5 +20832.5%−1.5 +21132.2%−1.5 +22830.5%
NSHNashville Predators+0.1our margin+1.5 −25171.5%+1.5 −25071.5%+1.5 −24270.7%+1.5 −23370.0%
Totalwe expect 6.4
Over6.4our totalo6.5 −10751.8%o6.5 −10751.7%o6.5 −10150.3%o6.5 +10449.0%
Under6.4our totalu6.5 −11252.7%u6.5 −11252.7%u6.5 −10852.0%u6.5 −10651.5%

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Washington Capitals by 6 goals: <1%Washington Capitals by 5 goals: 2%Washington Capitals by 4 goals: 6%Washington Capitals by 3 goals: 12%Washington Capitals by 2 goals: 10%Washington Capitals by 1 goal: 19%Nashville Predators by 1 goal: 22%Nashville Predators by 2 goals: 9%Nashville Predators by 3 goals: 11%Nashville Predators by 4 goals: 5%Nashville Predators by 5 goals: 2%Nashville Predators by 6 goals: <1%
← WSH wins byNSH wins by →
Washington Capitals wins by 2 or more31%
Washington Capitals wins by 3 or more21%
Nashville Predators wins by 2 or more27%
Decided by one goal42%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

6.4 expected
1 goals: 1%2 goals: 2%3 goals: 10%4 goals: 8%5 goals: 20%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 19%8 goals: 8%9 goals: 11%10 goals: 4%11 goals: 4%12 goals: 1%13 goals: 1%14 goals: <1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 5.560%
Total over 6.549%
Total over 7.529%
Total from 6 to 730%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
WSHCharlie Lindgren G · last 5 starts: .874 save %, 3.58 GAAstarted
NSHJuuse Saros G · last 5 starts: .899 save %, 2.89 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
WSH·NSH
Oct 28 vs PHI
last game
Oct 27 vs NYI
0 days
days of rest
1 day
yes
back-to-back
no
2
games in last 7 days
4
road after a home game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

Injury list before the game · Oct 29, 2026, 5:40 PM CT
WSHPatrick Thomas · upper body, back about Nov 14IR
WSHRasmus Sandin · right knee, back about Dec 26IR
WSHVincent Desharnais · abdomen, back about Dec 5IR

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026–27 season · box-score averages from 11+ games
WSH·NSH
+0.17
rating (0 = average)
−0.12
3.5
goals / game
2.8
3.1
goals allowed / game
3.2
7−4
season record
4−8
6−2
home record
3−4
1−2
away record
1−4
W2
streak
L1
6−4
last 10
3−7
27.6
shots / game
25.5
49.2
faceoff %
49.7
22.5
hits / game
23.2
17.8
blocked shots / game
15.7
3.1
takeaways / game
5.0
16.1
giveaways / game
17.0

Rating Trend

WSH · NSH · 30 days
Washington CapitalsNashville Predators
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · NSH 4−6
Feb 5at WSHWSH 4 − 2
Jan 11at NSHNSH 3 − 2
Jan 11, 2025at NSHWSH 4 − 1
Nov 6, 2024at WSHWSH 3 − 2
Dec 30, 2023at WSHNSH 3 − 2 SO
Dec 16, 2023at NSHNSH 3 − 1
Jan 6, 2023at WSHNSH 3 − 2
Oct 29, 2022at NSHWSH 3 − 0
Feb 15, 2022at NSHWSH 4 − 1
Dec 29, 2021at WSHWSH 5 − 3

WSH · Last 10

6−4 · streak W2
Oct 28vs PHI5 − 2W
Oct 24vs BUF4 − 3W
Oct 20vs LA2 − 5L
Oct 17vs NJ4 − 2W
Oct 14vs MTL5 − 4W
Oct 13at CAR2 − 4L
Oct 11vs SEA3 − 5L
Oct 9vs NYR3 − 1W
Oct 7vs PIT5 − 3W
Oct 3at TB1 − 3L

NSH · Last 10

3−7 · streak L1
Oct 27vs NYI3 − 4L
Oct 25vs COL6 − 2W
Oct 24at PIT2 − 3L
Oct 22at BOS0 − 6L
Oct 17vs STL5 − 2W
Oct 15vs SJ2 − 3L
Oct 13vs VGK2 − 5L
Oct 10at OTT2 − 3L
Oct 8at MTL5 − 2W
Oct 6at TOR4 − 5L