bayesRatings

Avalanche at Predators

NHL · Sunday, Oct 25 · 7:00 PM CT · Bridgestone Arena · Final COL 2 – NSH 6

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123T
COL0112
NSH2316
Team box
COL·NSH
21
shots
35
0 of 4
power play
4 of 7
38.3
faceoff %
61.7
15
hits
18
11
blocked shots
10
21
penalty minutes
15
Top performers
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Scott WedgewoodCOL3529.829
Justus AnnunenNSH2119.905

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
NSH +5
COL +5
P1P2P3
largest lead: NSH 5 · COL 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was COL 66%, NSH 34% · Updated Oct 25

Expected margin
COL by 1.3
Expected score
COL 3.9 – 2.6 NSH
Expected total
6.5
AvalancheThe matchupPredators
−198Our fair odds+198
3.9Expected goals2.6
+0.47Power rating−0.15
4.3Goals / game2.5
3.1Allowed / game3.3
30.0Shots / game24.8
46.8Faceoff %49.4
16.6Hits / game24.0
6−5Season record3−7
5−5Last 103−7
Nicolas Roy · Zachary L'HeureuxOut—

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
COL chance · NSH chance
Our model fair66.4%33.6%
Kalshi70.5%33.5%
Polymarket US70.5%33.5%
ProphetX68.9%34.1%
Novig67.5%33.0%
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 7:00 PM CTPolymarket USpre-game · 6:59 PM CTProphetXpre-game · 6:59 PM CTNovigpre-game · 6:59 PM CT
Moneyline
COLColorado Avalanche−19866%−23970.5%−23970.5%−22168.9%−20867.5%
NSHNashville Predators+19834%+19833.5%+19833.5%+19334.1%+20333.0%
SpreadCOL by 1.3
COLColorado Avalanche−1.3our margin−1.5 +10149.7%−1.5 +10149.7%−1.5 +10449.1%−1.5 +10848.0%
NSHNashville Predators+1.3our margin+1.5 −12154.7%+1.5 −12154.7%+1.5 −11653.8%+1.5 −11152.5%
Totalwe expect 6.5
Over6.5our totalo6.5 −10751.8%o6.5 −10751.7%o6.5 −10651.5%o6.5 −10250.5%
Under6.5our totalu6.5 −11252.7%u6.5 −11252.7%u6.5 −10551.2%u6.5 +10050.0%

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Colorado Avalanche by 1.3 expected
Colorado Avalanche by 7 goals: 1%Colorado Avalanche by 6 goals: 1%Colorado Avalanche by 5 goals: 5%Colorado Avalanche by 4 goals: 12%Colorado Avalanche by 3 goals: 18%Colorado Avalanche by 2 goals: 13%Colorado Avalanche by 1 goal: 18%Nashville Predators by 1 goal: 19%Nashville Predators by 2 goals: 5%Nashville Predators by 3 goals: 5%Nashville Predators by 4 goals: 2%Nashville Predators by 5 goals: 1%Nashville Predators by 6 goals: <1%Nashville Predators by 7 goals: <1%
← COL wins byNSH wins by →
Colorado Avalanche wins by 2 or more50%
Colorado Avalanche wins by 3 or more37%
Nashville Predators wins by 2 or more13%
Decided by one goal37%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

6.5 expected
1 goals: 1%2 goals: 2%3 goals: 9%4 goals: 8%5 goals: 19%6 goals: 12%7 goals: 19%8 goals: 9%9 goals: 11%10 goals: 4%11 goals: 4%12 goals: 1%13 goals: 1%14 goals: <1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 5.561%
Total over 6.549%
Total over 7.530%
Total from 6 to 730%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
COLScott Wedgewood G · last 5 starts: .898 save %, 2.85 GAAstarted
NSHJustus Annunen G · last 5 starts: .918 save %, 2.43 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
COL·NSH
Oct 23 vs TB
last game
Oct 24 at PIT
1 day
days of rest
0 days
no
back-to-back
yes
3
games in last 7 days
2
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

Injury list before the game · Oct 25, 2026, 5:40 PM CT
COLNicolas Roy · lower body, back about Oct 28Out
COLZachary L'Heureux · upper body, back about Nov 7IR

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026–27 season · box-score averages from 10+ games
COL·NSH
+0.47
rating (0 = average)
−0.15
4.3
goals / game
2.5
3.1
goals allowed / game
3.3
6−5
season record
3−7
4−2
home record
2−3
2−3
away record
1−4
W1
streak
L2
5−5
last 10
3−7
30.0
shots / game
24.8
46.8
faceoff %
49.4
16.6
hits / game
24.0
14.9
blocked shots / game
16.1
4.5
takeaways / game
5.1
17.7
giveaways / game
17.2

Rating Trend

COL · NSH · 26 days
Colorado AvalancheNashville Predators
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · NSH 5−5
Jan 16at COLNSH 7 − 3
Dec 13, 2025at COLCOL 4 − 2
Dec 9, 2025at NSHNSH 4 − 3 SO
Nov 22, 2025at NSHCOL 3 − 0
Feb 22, 2025at NSHNSH 2 − 1
Dec 14, 2024at COLCOL 5 − 2
Nov 11, 2024at COLCOL 3 − 2 OT
Nov 2, 2024at NSHNSH 5 − 2
Mar 30, 2024at COLCOL 7 − 4
Mar 2, 2024at NSHNSH 5 − 1

COL · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Oct 23vs TB6 − 3W
Oct 20at NJ3 − 4L
Oct 19at PHI2 − 3L
Oct 16vs PIT5 − 2W
Oct 14vs DAL2 − 3L
Oct 13at DAL3 − 2W
Oct 10vs TOR3 − 6L
Oct 8at CGY7 − 3W
Oct 7at WPG2 − 3L
Oct 3vs STL6 − 1W

NSH · Last 10

3−7 · streak L2
Oct 24at PIT2 − 3L
Oct 22at BOS0 − 6L
Oct 17vs STL5 − 2W
Oct 15vs SJ2 − 3L
Oct 13vs VGK2 − 5L
Oct 10at OTT2 − 3L
Oct 8at MTL5 − 2W
Oct 6at TOR4 − 5L
Oct 3vs DAL2 − 1W
Oct 1vs MIN1 − 3L