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Bruins at Penguins

NHL · Thursday, Nov 5 · 6:00 PM CT · PPG Paints Arena · early forecast

Early forecast: it updates each morning until game day, when it is locked in and graded.

← NHL / Nov 5

Chance to win, from our model · Updated Oct 30

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
BOS 3.4 – 3.1 PIT
Expected total
6.5
BruinsThe matchupPenguins
−112Our fair odds+112
3.4Expected goals3.1
+0.15Power rating−0.02
3.6Goals / game3.3
2.3Allowed / game3.4
25.9Shots / game28.0
53.6Faceoff %45.1
22.0Hits / game11.5
9−5Season record5−8
7−3Last 103−7
—OutJustin Brazeau RW · Bryan Rust RW
Elmer Soderblom LW · Ryan Graves D
Trevor van Riemsdyk D

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
BOS chance · PIT chance
Our model fair52.8%47.2%
Kalshi54.7%52.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi5:13 AM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
BOSBoston Bruins−11253%−12154.7%———
PITPittsburgh Penguins+11247%−11252.7%———
Spreadabout even
BOSBoston Bruins−0.2our margin————
PITPittsburgh Penguins+0.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 6.5
Over6.5our total————
Under6.5our total————

Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Boston Bruins by 6 goals: 1%Boston Bruins by 5 goals: 3%Boston Bruins by 4 goals: 7%Boston Bruins by 3 goals: 13%Boston Bruins by 2 goals: 10%Boston Bruins by 1 goal: 20%Pittsburgh Penguins by 1 goal: 21%Pittsburgh Penguins by 2 goals: 9%Pittsburgh Penguins by 3 goals: 10%Pittsburgh Penguins by 4 goals: 5%Pittsburgh Penguins by 5 goals: 2%Pittsburgh Penguins by 6 goals: <1%
← BOS wins byPIT wins by →
Boston Bruins wins by 2 or more33%
Boston Bruins wins by 3 or more23%
Pittsburgh Penguins wins by 2 or more26%
Decided by one goal41%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

6.5 expected
1 goals: 1%2 goals: 2%3 goals: 9%4 goals: 7%5 goals: 20%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 19%8 goals: 8%9 goals: 11%10 goals: 4%11 goals: 4%12 goals: 1%13 goals: 1%14 goals: <1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 5.561%
Total over 6.550%
Total over 7.530%
Total from 6 to 730%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Probable Starting Goalies

as announced
BOSJeremy Swayman G · last 5 starts: .889 save %, 2.78 GAAexpected
PITArturs Silovs G · last 5 starts: .891 save %, 3.19 GAAexpected

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
BOS·PIT
Oct 29 at STL
last game
Oct 29 vs UTAH
6 days
days of rest
6 days
no
back-to-back
no
1
games in last 7 days
1
3rd straight road game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

Current team injury lists
PITJustin Brazeau RW · lower bodyOut
PITBryan Rust RW · lower body, back about Dec 5IR
PITElmer Soderblom LW · upper body, back about Nov 7IR
PITRyan Graves D · kneeIR
PITTrevor van Riemsdyk D · lower bodyIR

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026–27 season · box-score averages from 13+ games
BOS·PIT
+0.15
rating (0 = average)
−0.02
3.6
goals / game
3.3
2.3
goals allowed / game
3.4
9−5
season record
5−8
5−1
home record
4−2
4−4
away record
1−6
L2
streak
L1
7−3
last 10
3−7
25.9
shots / game
28.0
53.6
faceoff %
45.1
22.0
hits / game
11.5
14.7
blocked shots / game
13.2
4.1
takeaways / game
4.2
17.1
giveaways / game
16.8

Rating Trend

BOS · PIT · 31 days
Boston BruinsPittsburgh Penguins
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · PIT 3−7
Mar 8at PITPIT 5 − 4 OT
Mar 3at BOSBOS 2 − 1
Jan 11at BOSBOS 1 − 0
Apr 13, 2025at PITBOS 4 − 1
Mar 1, 2025at PITBOS 3 − 2
Nov 29, 2024at BOSPIT 2 − 1
Apr 13, 2024at PITBOS 6 − 4
Mar 9, 2024at BOSBOS 5 − 1
Jan 4, 2024at BOSPIT 6 − 5
Apr 1, 2023at PITBOS 4 − 3

BOS · Last 10

7−3 · streak L2
Oct 29at STL1 − 4L
Oct 27at CAR1 − 2L
Oct 24vs SJ6 − 4W
Oct 22vs NSH6 − 0W
Oct 20at DAL2 − 3L
Oct 17at LA4 − 1W
Oct 16at ANA4 − 2W
Oct 13at SJ6 − 3W
Oct 10vs PHI5 − 1W
Oct 8vs UTAH6 − 1W

PIT · Last 10

3−7 · streak L1
Oct 29vs UTAH3 − 4L
Oct 24vs NSH3 − 2W
Oct 22vs FLA4 − 0W
Oct 19at UTAH4 − 5L
Oct 17at VGK2 − 6L
Oct 16at COL2 − 5L
Oct 13at CHI3 − 5L
Oct 10vs DAL2 − 1W
Oct 9at CBJ2 − 3L
Oct 7at WSH3 − 5L