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Sharks at Wild

NHL · Friday, Nov 6 · 7:00 PM CT · Grand Casino Arena · early forecast

Early forecast: it updates each morning until game day, when it is locked in and graded.

← NHL / Nov 6

Chance to win, from our model · Updated Oct 30

Expected margin
MIN by 1.4
Expected score
MIN 4.0 – 2.5 SJ
Expected total
6.5
SharksThe matchupWild
+222Our fair odds−222
2.5Expected goals4.0
−0.27Power rating+0.21
2.9Goals / game3.1
3.4Allowed / game2.3
27.4Shots / game30.5
47.2Faceoff %49.3
25.6Hits / game23.0
7−7Season record9−6
4−6Last 106−4
Adam Gaudette RW · Alexander Wennberg C
Igor Chernyshov LW · Kyle Keyser G
Quentin Musty LWOutBrock Faber D · Jared Spurgeon D
Marcus Foligno LW · Nick Foligno LW

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SJ chance · MIN chance
Our model fair31.0%69.0%
Kalshi34.5%74.4%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi5:26 AM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SJSan Jose Sharks+22231%+18934.5%———
MINMinnesota Wild−22269%−29074.4%———
SpreadMIN by 1.4
SJSan Jose Sharks+1.4our margin————
MINMinnesota Wild−1.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 6.5
Over6.5our total————
Under6.5our total————

Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Minnesota Wild by 1.4 expected
San Jose Sharks by 7 goals: <1%San Jose Sharks by 6 goals: <1%San Jose Sharks by 5 goals: 1%San Jose Sharks by 4 goals: 2%San Jose Sharks by 3 goals: 5%San Jose Sharks by 2 goals: 5%San Jose Sharks by 1 goal: 18%Minnesota Wild by 1 goal: 18%Minnesota Wild by 2 goals: 13%Minnesota Wild by 3 goals: 19%Minnesota Wild by 4 goals: 12%Minnesota Wild by 5 goals: 5%Minnesota Wild by 6 goals: 1%Minnesota Wild by 7 goals: 1%
← SJ wins byMIN wins by →
Minnesota Wild wins by 2 or more52%
Minnesota Wild wins by 3 or more39%
San Jose Sharks wins by 2 or more12%
Decided by one goal36%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

6.5 expected
1 goals: 1%2 goals: 2%3 goals: 9%4 goals: 8%5 goals: 19%6 goals: 12%7 goals: 19%8 goals: 9%9 goals: 11%10 goals: 4%11 goals: 4%12 goals: 1%13 goals: 1%14 goals: <1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 5.561%
Total over 6.549%
Total over 7.531%
Total from 6 to 730%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Probable Starting Goalies

as announced
SJYaroslav Askarov G · last 5 starts: .926 save %, 2.44 GAAexpected
MINJesper Wallstedt G · last 5 starts: .908 save %, 2.38 GAAexpected

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SJ·MIN
Oct 29 vs VAN
last game
Oct 29 vs NYI
7 days
days of rest
7 days
no
back-to-back
no
0
games in last 7 days
0
road after a home game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

Current team injury lists
San Jose Sharks
SJAdam Gaudette RWIR
SJAlexander Wennberg C · upper body, back about Nov 9IR
SJIgor Chernyshov LW · upper body, back about Nov 14IR
SJKyle Keyser G · upper body, back about Dec 1IR
SJQuentin Musty LW · upper body, back about Dec 1IR
Minnesota Wild
MINJoel Eriksson Ek C · undisclosedDay-to-day
MINBrock Faber D · skull surgeryIR
MINJared Spurgeon D · undisclosed, back about Nov 6IR
MINMarcus Foligno LW · lower bodyIR
MINNick Foligno LW · upper bodyIR

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026–27 season · box-score averages from 14+ games
SJ·MIN
−0.27
rating (0 = average)
+0.21
2.9
goals / game
3.1
3.4
goals allowed / game
2.3
7−7
season record
9−6
3−3
home record
4−1
4−4
away record
5−5
W1
streak
L1
4−6
last 10
6−4
27.4
shots / game
30.5
47.2
faceoff %
49.3
25.6
hits / game
23.0
14.4
blocked shots / game
14.0
4.8
takeaways / game
4.4
18.6
giveaways / game
16.9

Rating Trend

SJ · MIN · 31 days
San Jose SharksMinnesota Wild
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MIN 7−3
Dec 31, 2025at SJSJ 4 − 3 SO
Nov 11, 2025at MINSJ 2 − 1 OT
Oct 26, 2025at MINSJ 6 − 5 OT
Apr 9, 2025at MINMIN 8 − 7 OT
Jan 11, 2025at SJMIN 3 − 1
Nov 7, 2024at SJMIN 5 − 2
Apr 13, 2024at SJMIN 6 − 2
Mar 28, 2024at MINMIN 3 − 1
Mar 3, 2024at MINMIN 4 − 3
Mar 11, 2023at SJMIN 5 − 2

SJ · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Oct 29vs VAN3 − 2W
Oct 27vs BUF0 − 2L
Oct 24at BOS4 − 6L
Oct 22at OTT6 − 2W
Oct 20at MTL4 − 3W
Oct 19at TOR1 − 3L
Oct 17at DET3 − 4L
Oct 15at NSH3 − 2W
Oct 13vs BOS3 − 6L
Oct 10vs EDM1 − 3L

MIN · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Oct 29vs NYI3 − 4L
Oct 27at UTAH3 − 1W
Oct 25at VAN4 − 2W
Oct 24at SEA5 − 1W
Oct 22at CGY1 − 2L
Oct 20at EDM3 − 4L
Oct 18vs CBJ2 − 1W
Oct 15vs STL5 − 4W
Oct 13at WPG2 − 5L
Oct 12vs VGK4 − 2W