bayesRatings

Dodgers at Tigers

MLB · Sunday, Aug 30 · 12:40 PM CT · Comerica Park · Final LAD 6 – DET 1
← MLB / Aug 30

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
LAD000102030690
DET000100000121
Team box
LAD·DET
9
hits
2
1
home runs
0
3
walks
2
9
strikeouts
7
117
pitches thrown
167
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Teoscar HernandezLAD2-3212
Kevin McGonigleDET1-4001
Freddie FreemanLAD2-2300
Miguel RojasLAD1-2001
Max MuncyLAD1-1001
Gleyber TorresDET1-4100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Tyler Glasnow (W)LAD7.02116
Framber Valdez (L)DET6.06315

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
DET +5
LAD +5
123456789
largest lead: DET 0 · LAD 5lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was LAD 54%, DET 46% · Updated Aug 30

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
LAD 4.3 – 3.9 DET
Expected total
8.2
DodgersThe matchupTigers
−118Our fair odds+118
4.3Expected runs3.9
+0.29Power rating+0.04
4.9Runs / game4.4
3.8Allowed / game3.9
8.7Hits / game8.0
1.24Home runs / game1.15
3.7Walks drawn / game3.5
81−55Season record63−72
6−4Last 102−8

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
LAD chance · DET chance
Our model fair54.0%46.0%
Kalshi61.7%42.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 12:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
LADLos Angeles Dodgers−11854%−16161.7%———
DETDetroit Tigers+11846%+13442.7%———
Spreadabout even
LADLos Angeles Dodgers−0.4our margin————
DETDetroit Tigers+0.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.2
Over8.2our total————
Under8.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Los Angeles Dodgers by 12 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 11 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 10 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 9 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 8 runs: 2%Los Angeles Dodgers by 7 runs: 2%Los Angeles Dodgers by 6 runs: 3%Los Angeles Dodgers by 5 runs: 4%Los Angeles Dodgers by 4 runs: 6%Los Angeles Dodgers by 3 runs: 8%Los Angeles Dodgers by 2 runs: 11%Los Angeles Dodgers by 1 run: 15%Detroit Tigers by 1 run: 14%Detroit Tigers by 2 runs: 10%Detroit Tigers by 3 runs: 7%Detroit Tigers by 4 runs: 5%Detroit Tigers by 5 runs: 4%Detroit Tigers by 6 runs: 2%Detroit Tigers by 7 runs: 2%Detroit Tigers by 8 runs: 1%Detroit Tigers by 9 runs: 1%Detroit Tigers by 10 runs: <1%Detroit Tigers by 11 runs: <1%Detroit Tigers by 12 runs: <1%
← LAD wins byDET wins by →
Los Angeles Dodgers wins by 2 or more39%
Los Angeles Dodgers wins by 3 or more28%
Detroit Tigers wins by 2 or more32%
Decided by one run30%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.2 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 8%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 12%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.563%
Total over 8.543%
Total over 10.526%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
LADTyler Glasnow SP · last 3 starts: 11.2 IP, 4.63 ERA, 18 Kstarted
DETFramber Valdez SP · last 3 starts: 17.1 IP, 5.71 ERA, 8 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
LAD·DET
Aug 29 at DET
last game
Aug 29 vs LAD
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
6th straight road game
home / road
6th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 135+ games
LAD·DET
+0.29
rating (0 = average)
+0.04
4.9
runs / game
4.4
3.8
runs allowed / game
3.9
81−55
season record
63−72
40−26
home record
34−34
41−29
away record
29−38
L1
streak
W1
6−4
last 10
2−8
8.7
hits / game
8.0
1.24
home runs / game
1.15
3.7
walks drawn / game
3.5
7.8
batter strikeouts / game
8.6
9.1
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.1
0.39
errors / game
0.44

Rating Trend

LAD · DET · 155 days
Los Angeles DodgersDetroit Tigers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · DET 4−6
Aug 29at DETDET 2 − 1
Aug 28at DETLAD 2 − 1
Mar 29, 2025at LADLAD 7 − 3
Mar 28, 2025at LADLAD 8 − 5
Mar 27, 2025at LADLAD 5 − 4
Jul 14, 2024at DETDET 4 − 3
Jul 13, 2024at DETDET 11 − 9
Jul 12, 2024at DETLAD 4 − 3
Sep 20, 2023at LADDET 4 − 2
Sep 19, 2023at LADLAD 3 − 2

LAD · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Aug 29at DET1 − 2L
Aug 28at DET2 − 1W
Aug 27at ATL0 − 1L
Aug 26at ATL5 − 6L
Aug 25at ATL3 − 4L
Aug 23vs PIT4 − 0W
Aug 22vs PIT4 − 3W
Aug 21vs PIT5 − 4W
Aug 19at COL6 − 4W
Aug 18at COL7 − 6W

DET · Last 10

2−8 · streak W1
Aug 29vs LAD2 − 1W
Aug 28vs LAD1 − 2L
Aug 26vs TB0 − 3L
Aug 25vs TB4 − 1W
Aug 24vs TB1 − 4L
Aug 23at KC7 − 11L
Aug 22at KC1 − 3L
Aug 21at KC2 − 5L
Aug 19at PIT3 − 4L
Aug 18at PIT1 − 4L