bayesRatings

Dodgers at Tigers

MLB · Friday, Aug 28 · 5:40 PM CT · Comerica Park · Final LAD 2 – DET 1
← MLB / Aug 28

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
LAD000001010290
DET000010000151
Team box
LAD·DET
9
hits
5
0
home runs
0
9
walks
2
9
strikeouts
12
119
pitches thrown
178
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Freddie FreemanLAD2-4001
Gleyber TorresDET2-4000
Max ClarkDET1-2001
Miguel RojasLAD1-1001
Teoscar HernandezLAD2-4100
Eduardo ValenciaDET1-2100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Tarik SkubalLAD6.04107
Evan Phillips (W)LAD1.00003
Tanner Scott (S)LAD1.00002
Drew AndersonDET4.24055
Jacob Waguespack (L)DET1.12100

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
DET +3
LAD +3
123456789
largest lead: DET 1 · LAD 1lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was LAD 54%, DET 46% · Updated Aug 28

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
LAD 4.4 – 4.0 DET
Expected total
8.3
DodgersThe matchupTigers
−118Our fair odds+118
4.4Expected runs4.0
+0.28Power rating+0.04
4.9Runs / game4.5
3.8Allowed / game3.9
8.7Hits / game8.1
1.25Home runs / game1.17
3.7Walks drawn / game3.5
80−54Season record62−71
6−4Last 102−8

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
LAD chance · DET chance
Our model fair54.0%46.0%
Kalshi65.6%38.6%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 5:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
LADLos Angeles Dodgers−11854%−19165.6%———
DETDetroit Tigers+11846%+15938.6%———
Spreadabout even
LADLos Angeles Dodgers−0.4our margin————
DETDetroit Tigers+0.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.3
Over8.3our total————
Under8.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Los Angeles Dodgers by 13 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 12 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 11 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 10 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 9 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 8 runs: 2%Los Angeles Dodgers by 7 runs: 2%Los Angeles Dodgers by 6 runs: 3%Los Angeles Dodgers by 5 runs: 4%Los Angeles Dodgers by 4 runs: 6%Los Angeles Dodgers by 3 runs: 8%Los Angeles Dodgers by 2 runs: 11%Los Angeles Dodgers by 1 run: 15%Detroit Tigers by 1 run: 14%Detroit Tigers by 2 runs: 10%Detroit Tigers by 3 runs: 7%Detroit Tigers by 4 runs: 5%Detroit Tigers by 5 runs: 4%Detroit Tigers by 6 runs: 2%Detroit Tigers by 7 runs: 2%Detroit Tigers by 8 runs: 1%Detroit Tigers by 9 runs: 1%Detroit Tigers by 10 runs: <1%Detroit Tigers by 11 runs: <1%Detroit Tigers by 12 runs: <1%Detroit Tigers by 13 runs: <1%
← LAD wins byDET wins by →
Los Angeles Dodgers wins by 2 or more39%
Los Angeles Dodgers wins by 3 or more28%
Detroit Tigers wins by 2 or more32%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.3 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 12%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.564%
Total over 8.544%
Total over 10.527%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
LADTarik Skubal SP · last 3 starts: 18.0 IP, 3.50 ERA, 24 Kstarted
DETDrew Anderson RP · last 3 starts: 14.0 IP, 4.50 ERA, 13 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
LAD·DET
Aug 27 at ATL
last game
Aug 26 vs TB
0 days
days of rest
1 day
6
games in last 7 days
6
4th straight road game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 133+ games
LAD·DET
+0.28
rating (0 = average)
+0.04
4.9
runs / game
4.5
3.8
runs allowed / game
3.9
80−54
season record
62−71
40−26
home record
33−33
40−28
away record
29−38
L3
streak
L1
6−4
last 10
2−8
8.7
hits / game
8.1
1.25
home runs / game
1.17
3.7
walks drawn / game
3.5
7.9
batter strikeouts / game
8.5
9.1
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.1
0.39
errors / game
0.44

Rating Trend

LAD · DET · 153 days
Los Angeles DodgersDetroit Tigers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · DET 3−7
Mar 29, 2025at LADLAD 7 − 3
Mar 28, 2025at LADLAD 8 − 5
Mar 27, 2025at LADLAD 5 − 4
Jul 14, 2024at DETDET 4 − 3
Jul 13, 2024at DETDET 11 − 9
Jul 12, 2024at DETLAD 4 − 3
Sep 20, 2023at LADDET 4 − 2
Sep 19, 2023at LADLAD 3 − 2
Sep 18, 2023at LADLAD 8 − 3
May 1, 2022at LADLAD 6 − 3

LAD · Last 10

6−4 · streak L3
Aug 27at ATL0 − 1L
Aug 26at ATL5 − 6L
Aug 25at ATL3 − 4L
Aug 23vs PIT4 − 0W
Aug 22vs PIT4 − 3W
Aug 21vs PIT5 − 4W
Aug 19at COL6 − 4W
Aug 18at COL7 − 6W
Aug 17at COL11 − 5W
Aug 16vs MIL2 − 6L

DET · Last 10

2−8 · streak L1
Aug 26vs TB0 − 3L
Aug 25vs TB4 − 1W
Aug 24vs TB1 − 4L
Aug 23at KC7 − 11L
Aug 22at KC1 − 3L
Aug 21at KC2 − 5L
Aug 19at PIT3 − 4L
Aug 18at PIT1 − 4L
Aug 17at PIT8 − 5W
Aug 16vs CHW5 − 7L