bayesRatings

Mariners at Athletics

MLB · Saturday, Sep 12 · 8:40 PM CT · Sutter Health Park · Final SEA 19 – ATH 1
← MLB / Sep 12

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
SEA23022034319231
ATH001000000151
Team box
SEA·ATH
23
hits
5
5
home runs
0
6
walks
3
4
strikeouts
7
128
pitches thrown
183
1
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Cole YoungSEA3-6215
Randy ArozarenaSEA2-5114
Michael ArroyoSEA3-4213
Weston WilsonSEA5-6301
J.P. CrawfordSEA2-6312
Dominic CanzoneSEA2-4112
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Bryan Woo (W)SEA6.03025
Gage Jump (L)ATH2.05512

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ATH +18
SEA +18
123456789
largest lead: ATH 0 · SEA 18lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SEA 54%, ATH 46% · Updated Sep 12

Expected margin
SEA by 0.6
Expected score
SEA 5.4 – 4.8 ATH
Expected total
10.2
MarinersThe matchupAthletics
−119Our fair odds+119
5.4Expected runs4.8
−0.08Power rating−0.34
4.0Runs / game4.4
4.5Allowed / game5.6
7.6Hits / game8.4
1.12Home runs / game1.22
3.4Walks drawn / game3.3
69−79Season record60−88
5−5Last 107−3

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SEA chance · ATH chance
Our model fair54.4%45.6%
Kalshi61.7%43.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 8:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SEASeattle Mariners−11954%−16161.7%———
ATHAthletics+11946%+12943.7%———
SpreadSEA by 0.6
SEASeattle Mariners−0.6our margin————
ATHAthletics+0.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 10.2
Over10.2our total————
Under10.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Seattle Mariners by 0.6 expected
Seattle Mariners by 15 runs: <1%Seattle Mariners by 14 runs: <1%Seattle Mariners by 13 runs: <1%Seattle Mariners by 12 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 11 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 10 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 9 runs: 2%Seattle Mariners by 8 runs: 2%Seattle Mariners by 7 runs: 3%Seattle Mariners by 6 runs: 4%Seattle Mariners by 5 runs: 5%Seattle Mariners by 4 runs: 6%Seattle Mariners by 3 runs: 7%Seattle Mariners by 2 runs: 9%Seattle Mariners by 1 run: 12%Athletics by 1 run: 13%Athletics by 2 runs: 9%Athletics by 3 runs: 6%Athletics by 4 runs: 5%Athletics by 5 runs: 4%Athletics by 6 runs: 3%Athletics by 7 runs: 2%Athletics by 8 runs: 1%Athletics by 9 runs: 1%Athletics by 10 runs: 1%Athletics by 11 runs: <1%Athletics by 12 runs: <1%Athletics by 13 runs: <1%Athletics by 14 runs: <1%Athletics by 15 runs: <1%
← SEA wins byATH wins by →
Seattle Mariners wins by 2 or more42%
Seattle Mariners wins by 3 or more33%
Athletics wins by 2 or more33%
Decided by one run25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

10.2 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 4%4 runs: 3%5 runs: 8%6 runs: 6%7 runs: 10%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 9%12 runs: 6%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 3%17 runs: 3%18 runs: 2%19 runs: 2%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: 1%23 runs: 1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%26 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 8.560%
Total over 10.543%
Total over 12.529%
Total from 9 to 1231%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
SEABryan Woo SP · last 3 starts: 18.0 IP, 3.50 ERA, 21 Kstarted
ATHGage Jump SP · last 3 starts: 14.2 IP, 6.75 ERA, 18 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SEA·ATH
Sep 11 at ATH
last game
Sep 11 vs SEA
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
2nd straight road game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 148+ games
SEA·ATH
−0.08
rating (0 = average)
−0.34
4.0
runs / game
4.4
4.5
runs allowed / game
5.6
69−79
season record
60−88
40−35
home record
28−45
29−44
away record
32−43
L1
streak
W2
5−5
last 10
7−3
7.6
hits / game
8.4
1.12
home runs / game
1.22
3.4
walks drawn / game
3.3
8.7
batter strikeouts / game
8.5
8.5
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.4
0.51
errors / game
0.47

Rating Trend

SEA · ATH · 168 days
Seattle MarinersAthletics
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · ATH 5−5
Sep 11at ATHATH 6 − 5
Sep 6at SEASEA 2 − 0
Sep 5at SEAATH 6 − 2
Sep 4at SEAATH 7 − 6
Sep 3at SEAATH 7 − 4
May 27at ATHSEA 9 − 1
May 26at ATHSEA 4 − 1
May 25at ATHSEA 9 − 2
Apr 22at SEASEA 5 − 4
Apr 21at SEAATH 5 − 2

SEA · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Sep 11at ATH5 − 6L
Sep 10vs TEX4 − 3W
Sep 9vs TEX3 − 2W
Sep 8vs TEX5 − 10L
Sep 6vs ATH2 − 0W
Sep 5vs ATH2 − 6L
Sep 4vs ATH6 − 7L
Sep 3vs ATH4 − 7L
Sep 2at BOS8 − 3W
Sep 1at BOS9 − 6W

ATH · Last 10

7−3 · streak W2
Sep 11vs SEA6 − 5W
Sep 9vs TOR2 − 0W
Sep 8vs TOR2 − 4L
Sep 7vs TOR6 − 5W
Sep 6at SEA0 − 2L
Sep 5at SEA6 − 2W
Sep 4at SEA7 − 6W
Sep 3at SEA7 − 4W
Sep 2at TEX9 − 2W
Sep 1at TEX5 − 8L