bayesRatings

Blue Jays at Athletics

MLB · Monday, Sep 7 · 9:05 PM CT · Sutter Health Park · Final TOR 5 – ATH 6
← MLB / Sep 7

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
TOR010000301593
ATH202010001660
Team box
TOR·ATH
9
hits
6
3
home runs
1
3
walks
4
4
strikeouts
10
156
pitches thrown
143
3
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Andres GimenezTOR2-4112
Alejandro KirkTOR2-4111
Henry BolteATH1-2311
Kazuma OkamotoTOR1-2111
Carlos CortesATH2-2001
Zack GelofATH1-4202
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Dylan CeaseTOR5.04426
Louis Varland (L)TOR0.22120
Jacob LopezATH6.07411
Hogan Harris (W)ATH1.11111

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ATH +4
TOR +4
123456789
largest lead: ATH 4 · TOR 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was TOR 59%, ATH 41% · Updated Sep 7

Expected margin
TOR by 1.2
Expected score
TOR 5.8 – 4.6 ATH
Expected total
10.3
Blue JaysThe matchupAthletics
−142Our fair odds+142
5.8Expected runs4.6
+0.06Power rating−0.37
4.0Runs / game4.4
4.3Allowed / game5.7
8.4Hits / game8.4
0.94Home runs / game1.21
2.8Walks drawn / game3.3
72−72Season record57−87
7−3Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
TOR chance · ATH chance
Our model fair58.7%41.3%
Kalshi68.5%36.6%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 9:05 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
TORToronto Blue Jays−14259%−21868.5%———
ATHAthletics+14241%+17336.6%———
SpreadTOR by 1.2
TORToronto Blue Jays−1.2our margin————
ATHAthletics+1.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 10.3
Over10.3our total————
Under10.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Toronto Blue Jays by 1.2 expected
Toronto Blue Jays by 16 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 15 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 14 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 13 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 12 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 11 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 10 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 9 runs: 2%Toronto Blue Jays by 8 runs: 3%Toronto Blue Jays by 7 runs: 3%Toronto Blue Jays by 6 runs: 4%Toronto Blue Jays by 5 runs: 5%Toronto Blue Jays by 4 runs: 6%Toronto Blue Jays by 3 runs: 8%Toronto Blue Jays by 2 runs: 10%Toronto Blue Jays by 1 run: 12%Athletics by 1 run: 12%Athletics by 2 runs: 8%Athletics by 3 runs: 6%Athletics by 4 runs: 4%Athletics by 5 runs: 3%Athletics by 6 runs: 2%Athletics by 7 runs: 2%Athletics by 8 runs: 1%Athletics by 9 runs: 1%Athletics by 10 runs: 1%Athletics by 11 runs: <1%Athletics by 12 runs: <1%Athletics by 13 runs: <1%Athletics by 14 runs: <1%Athletics by 15 runs: <1%Athletics by 16 runs: <1%
← TOR wins byATH wins by →
Toronto Blue Jays wins by 2 or more47%
Toronto Blue Jays wins by 3 or more37%
Athletics wins by 2 or more29%
Decided by one run25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

10.3 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 4%4 runs: 3%5 runs: 8%6 runs: 6%7 runs: 10%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 9%12 runs: 6%13 runs: 7%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 5%16 runs: 3%17 runs: 3%18 runs: 2%19 runs: 2%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: 1%23 runs: 1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%26 runs: <1%27 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 8.561%
Total over 10.544%
Total over 12.530%
Total from 9 to 1231%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
TORDylan Cease SP · last 3 starts: 18.2 IP, 0.96 ERA, 20 Kstarted
ATHJacob Lopez SP · last 3 starts: 17.0 IP, 2.12 ERA, 22 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
TOR·ATH
Sep 6 at KC
last game
Sep 6 at SEA
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
7
7th straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 144+ games
TOR·ATH
+0.06
rating (0 = average)
−0.37
4.0
runs / game
4.4
4.3
runs allowed / game
5.7
72−72
season record
57−87
37−35
home record
25−44
35−37
away record
32−43
L1
streak
L1
7−3
last 10
4−6
8.4
hits / game
8.4
0.94
home runs / game
1.21
2.8
walks drawn / game
3.3
7.2
batter strikeouts / game
8.6
8.7
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.5
0.58
errors / game
0.48

Rating Trend

TOR · ATH · 163 days
Toronto Blue JaysAthletics
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · ATH 2−8
Mar 29at TORTOR 5 − 2
Mar 28at TORTOR 8 − 7
Mar 27at TORTOR 3 − 2
Jul 13, 2025at ATHATH 6 − 3
Jul 12, 2025at ATHATH 4 − 3
Jul 11, 2025at ATHTOR 7 − 6
Jun 1, 2025at TORTOR 8 − 4
May 31, 2025at TORTOR 8 − 7
May 30, 2025at TORTOR 11 − 7
May 29, 2025at TORTOR 12 − 0

TOR · Last 10

7−3 · streak L1
Sep 6at KC1 − 6L
Sep 5at KC4 − 3W
Sep 4at KC9 − 2W
Sep 3at CLE6 − 3W
Sep 2at CLE11 − 0W
Sep 1at CLE1 − 6L
Aug 30vs SEA7 − 0W
Aug 29vs SEA4 − 3W
Aug 28vs SEA8 − 1W
Aug 27vs KC2 − 13L

ATH · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
Sep 6at SEA0 − 2L
Sep 5at SEA6 − 2W
Sep 4at SEA7 − 6W
Sep 3at SEA7 − 4W
Sep 2at TEX9 − 2W
Sep 1at TEX5 − 8L
Aug 31at TEX1 − 8L
Aug 30vs BAL5 − 8L
Aug 29vs BAL3 − 5L
Aug 28vs BAL3 − 4L