bayesRatings

Athletics at Mariners

MLB · Sunday, Sep 6 · 3:10 PM CT · T-Mobile Park · Final ATH 0 – SEA 2
← MLB / Sep 6

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
ATH000000000010
SEA00020000270
Team box
ATH·SEA
1
hits
7
0
home runs
0
2
walks
1
10
strikeouts
13
134
pitches thrown
117
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
J.P. CrawfordSEA1-4001
Randy ArozarenaSEA2-4000
Cal RaleighSEA1-3001
Henry BolteATH1-4000
Josh NaylorSEA1-3000
Julio RodriguezSEA1-4100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Gage Jump (L)ATH4.06207
Bryan Woo (W)SEA8.01029
Andres Munoz (S)SEA1.00001

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
SEA +3
ATH +3
123456789
largest lead: SEA 2 · ATH 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ATH 42%, SEA 58% · Updated Sep 6

Expected margin
SEA by 0.7
Expected score
SEA 4.9 – 4.2 ATH
Expected total
9.1
AthleticsThe matchupMariners
+140Our fair odds−140
4.2Expected runs4.9
−0.36Power rating−0.08
4.4Runs / game4.0
5.7Allowed / game4.5
8.4Hits / game7.6
1.22Home runs / game1.14
3.3Walks drawn / game3.4
57−86Season record66−77
5−5Last 102−8

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ATH chance · SEA chance
Our model fair41.6%58.4%
Kalshi36.6%67.6%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 3:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ATHAthletics+14042%+17336.6%———
SEASeattle Mariners−14058%−20867.6%———
SpreadSEA by 0.7
ATHAthletics+0.7our margin————
SEASeattle Mariners−0.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.1
Over9.1our total————
Under9.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Seattle Mariners by 0.7 expected
Athletics by 14 runs: <1%Athletics by 13 runs: <1%Athletics by 12 runs: <1%Athletics by 11 runs: <1%Athletics by 10 runs: 1%Athletics by 9 runs: 1%Athletics by 8 runs: 1%Athletics by 7 runs: 2%Athletics by 6 runs: 2%Athletics by 5 runs: 4%Athletics by 4 runs: 5%Athletics by 3 runs: 6%Athletics by 2 runs: 9%Athletics by 1 run: 11%Seattle Mariners by 1 run: 17%Seattle Mariners by 2 runs: 10%Seattle Mariners by 3 runs: 8%Seattle Mariners by 4 runs: 6%Seattle Mariners by 5 runs: 5%Seattle Mariners by 6 runs: 4%Seattle Mariners by 7 runs: 3%Seattle Mariners by 8 runs: 2%Seattle Mariners by 9 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 10 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 11 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 12 runs: <1%Seattle Mariners by 13 runs: <1%Seattle Mariners by 14 runs: <1%
← ATH wins bySEA wins by →
Seattle Mariners wins by 2 or more42%
Seattle Mariners wins by 3 or more31%
Athletics wins by 2 or more31%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.1 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.559%
Total over 9.541%
Total over 11.526%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
ATHGage Jump SP · last 3 starts: 14.2 IP, 8.59 ERA, 14 Kstarted
SEABryan Woo SP · last 3 starts: 16.0 IP, 5.06 ERA, 17 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ATH·SEA
Sep 5 at SEA
last game
Sep 5 vs ATH
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
7
7th straight road game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 143+ games
ATH·SEA
−0.36
rating (0 = average)
−0.08
4.4
runs / game
4.0
5.7
runs allowed / game
4.5
57−86
season record
66−77
25−44
home record
37−34
32−42
away record
29−43
W4
streak
L3
5−5
last 10
2−8
8.4
hits / game
7.6
1.22
home runs / game
1.14
3.3
walks drawn / game
3.4
8.6
batter strikeouts / game
8.7
8.4
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.4
0.48
errors / game
0.51

Rating Trend

ATH · SEA · 162 days
AthleticsSeattle Mariners
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · SEA 5−5
Sep 5at SEAATH 6 − 2
Sep 4at SEAATH 7 − 6
Sep 3at SEAATH 7 − 4
May 27at ATHSEA 9 − 1
May 26at ATHSEA 4 − 1
May 25at ATHSEA 9 − 2
Apr 22at SEASEA 5 − 4
Apr 21at SEAATH 5 − 2
Apr 20at SEAATH 6 − 4
Aug 24, 2025at SEASEA 11 − 4

ATH · Last 10

5−5 · streak W4
Sep 5at SEA6 − 2W
Sep 4at SEA7 − 6W
Sep 3at SEA7 − 4W
Sep 2at TEX9 − 2W
Sep 1at TEX5 − 8L
Aug 31at TEX1 − 8L
Aug 30vs BAL5 − 8L
Aug 29vs BAL3 − 5L
Aug 28vs BAL3 − 4L
Aug 26vs MIN7 − 4W

SEA · Last 10

2−8 · streak L3
Sep 5vs ATH2 − 6L
Sep 4vs ATH6 − 7L
Sep 3vs ATH4 − 7L
Sep 2at BOS8 − 3W
Sep 1at BOS9 − 6W
Aug 31at BOS8 − 9L
Aug 30at TOR0 − 7L
Aug 29at TOR3 − 4L
Aug 28at TOR1 − 8L
Aug 26vs PHI0 − 6L