bayesRatings

Athletics at Mariners

MLB · Friday, Sep 4 · 9:10 PM CT · T-Mobile Park · Final ATH 7 – SEA 6
← MLB / Sep 4

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
ATH0050200007111
SEA0230000106101
Team box
ATH·SEA
11
hits
10
4
home runs
1
3
walks
4
12
strikeouts
2
128
pitches thrown
162
1
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Jeff McNeilATH2-5112
Zack GelofATH2-5212
Max MuncyATH3-4111
Cal RaleighSEA2-3312
Josh NaylorSEA3-4001
Alika WilliamsATH1-3211
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Kade MorrisATH2.25510
Brady Basso (W)ATH3.03010
Hogan Harris (S)ATH1.00011
Logan Gilbert (L)SEA4.287210

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
SEA +3
ATH +3
123456789
largest lead: SEA 2 · ATH 3lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ATH 40%, SEA 60% · Updated Sep 4

Expected margin
SEA by 0.8
Expected score
SEA 4.9 – 4.1 ATH
Expected total
9.0
AthleticsThe matchupMariners
+148Our fair odds−148
4.1Expected runs4.9
−0.38Power rating−0.06
4.4Runs / game4.0
5.7Allowed / game4.4
8.4Hits / game7.6
1.19Home runs / game1.15
3.3Walks drawn / game3.4
55−86Season record66−75
4−6Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ATH chance · SEA chance
Our model fair40.3%59.7%
Kalshi33.5%70.5%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 9:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ATHAthletics+14840%+19833.5%———
SEASeattle Mariners−14860%−23970.5%———
SpreadSEA by 0.8
ATHAthletics+0.8our margin————
SEASeattle Mariners−0.8our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.0
Over9.0our total————
Under9.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Seattle Mariners by 0.8 expected
Athletics by 14 runs: <1%Athletics by 13 runs: <1%Athletics by 12 runs: <1%Athletics by 11 runs: <1%Athletics by 10 runs: <1%Athletics by 9 runs: 1%Athletics by 8 runs: 1%Athletics by 7 runs: 2%Athletics by 6 runs: 2%Athletics by 5 runs: 3%Athletics by 4 runs: 5%Athletics by 3 runs: 6%Athletics by 2 runs: 9%Athletics by 1 run: 10%Seattle Mariners by 1 run: 17%Seattle Mariners by 2 runs: 10%Seattle Mariners by 3 runs: 8%Seattle Mariners by 4 runs: 6%Seattle Mariners by 5 runs: 5%Seattle Mariners by 6 runs: 4%Seattle Mariners by 7 runs: 3%Seattle Mariners by 8 runs: 2%Seattle Mariners by 9 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 10 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 11 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 12 runs: <1%Seattle Mariners by 13 runs: <1%Seattle Mariners by 14 runs: <1%
← ATH wins bySEA wins by →
Seattle Mariners wins by 2 or more42%
Seattle Mariners wins by 3 or more32%
Athletics wins by 2 or more30%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.0 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.558%
Total over 9.540%
Total over 11.525%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
ATHKade Morris SP · last 1 start: 4.0 IP, 20.25 ERA, 4 Kstarted
SEALogan Gilbert SP · last 3 starts: 15.0 IP, 4.80 ERA, 14 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ATH·SEA
Sep 3 at SEA
last game
Sep 3 vs ATH
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
7
5th straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 141+ games
ATH·SEA
−0.38
rating (0 = average)
−0.06
4.4
runs / game
4.0
5.7
runs allowed / game
4.4
55−86
season record
66−75
25−44
home record
37−32
30−42
away record
29−43
W2
streak
L1
4−6
last 10
4−6
8.4
hits / game
7.6
1.19
home runs / game
1.15
3.3
walks drawn / game
3.4
8.6
batter strikeouts / game
8.8
8.5
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.4
0.48
errors / game
0.51

Rating Trend

ATH · SEA · 160 days
AthleticsSeattle Mariners
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · SEA 6−4
Sep 3at SEAATH 7 − 4
May 27at ATHSEA 9 − 1
May 26at ATHSEA 4 − 1
May 25at ATHSEA 9 − 2
Apr 22at SEASEA 5 − 4
Apr 21at SEAATH 5 − 2
Apr 20at SEAATH 6 − 4
Aug 24, 2025at SEASEA 11 − 4
Aug 23, 2025at SEAATH 2 − 1
Aug 22, 2025at SEASEA 3 − 2

ATH · Last 10

4−6 · streak W2
Sep 3at SEA7 − 4W
Sep 2at TEX9 − 2W
Sep 1at TEX5 − 8L
Aug 31at TEX1 − 8L
Aug 30vs BAL5 − 8L
Aug 29vs BAL3 − 5L
Aug 28vs BAL3 − 4L
Aug 26vs MIN7 − 4W
Aug 25vs MIN4 − 2W
Aug 24vs MIN6 − 9L

SEA · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
Sep 3vs ATH4 − 7L
Sep 2at BOS8 − 3W
Sep 1at BOS9 − 6W
Aug 31at BOS8 − 9L
Aug 30at TOR0 − 7L
Aug 29at TOR3 − 4L
Aug 28at TOR1 − 8L
Aug 26vs PHI0 − 6L
Aug 25vs PHI4 − 1W
Aug 24vs PHI9 − 2W