bayesRatings

Mariners at Athletics

MLB · Sunday, Sep 13 · 3:05 PM CT · Sutter Health Park · Final SEA 7 – ATH 8
← MLB / Sep 13

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
SEA0023100107121
ATH200000402890
Team box
SEA·ATH
12
hits
9
2
home runs
3
6
walks
6
6
strikeouts
7
156
pitches thrown
196
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Randy ArozarenaSEA3-5224
Lawrence ButlerATH2-4224
Zack GelofATH2-3312
Jhonny PeredaSEA2-2102
Shea LangeliersATH1-1002
Alika WilliamsATH2-3100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Bryce MillerSEA5.02255
Andres Munoz (L)SEA0.22201
Jacob LopezATH3.26533
Elvis Alvarado (W)ATH1.01000

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ATH +4
SEA +4
123456789
largest lead: ATH 2 · SEA 4lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SEA 56%, ATH 44% · Updated Sep 13

Expected margin
SEA by 0.9
Expected score
SEA 5.6 – 4.7 ATH
Expected total
10.3
MarinersThe matchupAthletics
−125Our fair odds+125
5.6Expected runs4.7
−0.06Power rating−0.37
4.1Runs / game4.3
4.4Allowed / game5.7
7.7Hits / game8.3
1.15Home runs / game1.21
3.4Walks drawn / game3.3
70−79Season record60−89
5−5Last 107−3

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SEA chance · ATH chance
Our model fair55.6%44.4%
Kalshi56.7%47.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 3:05 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SEASeattle Mariners−12556%−13156.7%———
ATHAthletics+12544%+10947.7%———
SpreadSEA by 0.9
SEASeattle Mariners−0.9our margin————
ATHAthletics+0.9our margin————
Totalwe expect 10.3
Over10.3our total————
Under10.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Seattle Mariners by 0.9 expected
Seattle Mariners by 16 runs: <1%Seattle Mariners by 15 runs: <1%Seattle Mariners by 14 runs: <1%Seattle Mariners by 13 runs: <1%Seattle Mariners by 12 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 11 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 10 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 9 runs: 2%Seattle Mariners by 8 runs: 2%Seattle Mariners by 7 runs: 3%Seattle Mariners by 6 runs: 4%Seattle Mariners by 5 runs: 5%Seattle Mariners by 4 runs: 6%Seattle Mariners by 3 runs: 7%Seattle Mariners by 2 runs: 10%Seattle Mariners by 1 run: 11%Athletics by 1 run: 14%Athletics by 2 runs: 8%Athletics by 3 runs: 6%Athletics by 4 runs: 5%Athletics by 5 runs: 4%Athletics by 6 runs: 3%Athletics by 7 runs: 2%Athletics by 8 runs: 1%Athletics by 9 runs: 1%Athletics by 10 runs: 1%Athletics by 11 runs: <1%Athletics by 12 runs: <1%Athletics by 13 runs: <1%Athletics by 14 runs: <1%Athletics by 15 runs: <1%Athletics by 16 runs: <1%
← SEA wins byATH wins by →
Seattle Mariners wins by 2 or more45%
Seattle Mariners wins by 3 or more35%
Athletics wins by 2 or more31%
Decided by one run25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

10.3 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 4%4 runs: 3%5 runs: 8%6 runs: 6%7 runs: 10%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 9%12 runs: 6%13 runs: 7%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 5%16 runs: 3%17 runs: 3%18 runs: 2%19 runs: 2%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: 1%23 runs: 1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%26 runs: <1%27 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 8.561%
Total over 10.544%
Total over 12.530%
Total from 9 to 1231%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
SEABryce Miller SP · last 3 starts: 12.2 IP, 7.82 ERA, 14 Kstarted
ATHJacob Lopez SP · last 3 starts: 17.0 IP, 3.71 ERA, 14 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SEA·ATH
Sep 12 at ATH
last game
Sep 12 vs SEA
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
3rd straight road game
home / road
6th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 149+ games
SEA·ATH
−0.06
rating (0 = average)
−0.37
4.1
runs / game
4.3
4.4
runs allowed / game
5.7
70−79
season record
60−89
40−35
home record
28−46
30−44
away record
32−43
W1
streak
L1
5−5
last 10
7−3
7.7
hits / game
8.3
1.15
home runs / game
1.21
3.4
walks drawn / game
3.3
8.7
batter strikeouts / game
8.5
8.5
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.4
0.52
errors / game
0.48

Rating Trend

SEA · ATH · 169 days
Seattle MarinersAthletics
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · ATH 4−6
Sep 12at ATHSEA 19 − 1
Sep 11at ATHATH 6 − 5
Sep 6at SEASEA 2 − 0
Sep 5at SEAATH 6 − 2
Sep 4at SEAATH 7 − 6
Sep 3at SEAATH 7 − 4
May 27at ATHSEA 9 − 1
May 26at ATHSEA 4 − 1
May 25at ATHSEA 9 − 2
Apr 22at SEASEA 5 − 4

SEA · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Sep 12at ATH19 − 1W
Sep 11at ATH5 − 6L
Sep 10vs TEX4 − 3W
Sep 9vs TEX3 − 2W
Sep 8vs TEX5 − 10L
Sep 6vs ATH2 − 0W
Sep 5vs ATH2 − 6L
Sep 4vs ATH6 − 7L
Sep 3vs ATH4 − 7L
Sep 2at BOS8 − 3W

ATH · Last 10

7−3 · streak L1
Sep 12vs SEA1 − 19L
Sep 11vs SEA6 − 5W
Sep 9vs TOR2 − 0W
Sep 8vs TOR2 − 4L
Sep 7vs TOR6 − 5W
Sep 6at SEA0 − 2L
Sep 5at SEA6 − 2W
Sep 4at SEA7 − 6W
Sep 3at SEA7 − 4W
Sep 2at TEX9 − 2W