bayesRatings

Royals at Astros

MLB · Wednesday, Sep 16 · 7:10 PM CT · Daikin Park · Final KC 5 – HOU 2
← MLB / Sep 16

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
KC000200030580
HOU000000011281
Team box
KC·HOU
8
hits
8
2
home runs
1
7
walks
2
6
strikeouts
7
136
pitches thrown
149
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Michael MasseyKC3-5211
Yainer DiazHOU2-4111
John RaveKC1-4112
Jeremy PenaHOU3-4000
Carter JensenKC1-4001
Jose AltuveHOU1-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Daniel Lynch IV (W)KC5.02013
Cristian Javier (L)HOU5.15232

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
HOU +5
KC +5
123456789
largest lead: HOU 0 · KC 5lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was KC 46%, HOU 54% · Updated Sep 16

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
HOU 4.6 – 4.3 KC
Expected total
8.9
RoyalsThe matchupAstros
+119Our fair odds−119
4.3Expected runs4.6
−0.13Power rating−0.04
4.2Runs / game4.5
4.8Allowed / game4.8
8.2Hits / game8.0
1.03Home runs / game1.32
3.2Walks drawn / game3.3
66−85Season record76−75
3−7Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
KC chance · HOU chance
Our model fair45.7%54.3%
Kalshi41.7%62.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 7:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
KCKansas City Royals+11946%+14041.7%———
HOUHouston Astros−11954%−16862.7%———
Spreadabout even
KCKansas City Royals+0.3our margin————
HOUHouston Astros−0.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.9
Over8.9our total————
Under8.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Kansas City Royals by 13 runs: <1%Kansas City Royals by 12 runs: <1%Kansas City Royals by 11 runs: <1%Kansas City Royals by 10 runs: 1%Kansas City Royals by 9 runs: 1%Kansas City Royals by 8 runs: 1%Kansas City Royals by 7 runs: 2%Kansas City Royals by 6 runs: 3%Kansas City Royals by 5 runs: 4%Kansas City Royals by 4 runs: 5%Kansas City Royals by 3 runs: 7%Kansas City Royals by 2 runs: 9%Kansas City Royals by 1 run: 12%Houston Astros by 1 run: 16%Houston Astros by 2 runs: 10%Houston Astros by 3 runs: 7%Houston Astros by 4 runs: 6%Houston Astros by 5 runs: 4%Houston Astros by 6 runs: 3%Houston Astros by 7 runs: 2%Houston Astros by 8 runs: 2%Houston Astros by 9 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 10 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 11 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 12 runs: <1%Houston Astros by 13 runs: <1%
← KC wins byHOU wins by →
Houston Astros wins by 2 or more38%
Houston Astros wins by 3 or more28%
Kansas City Royals wins by 2 or more34%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.9 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.569%
Total over 8.549%
Total over 10.532%
Total from 7 to 1036%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
KCDaniel Lynch IV RP · last 3 starts: 13.1 IP, 6.08 ERA, 6 Kstarted
HOUCristian Javier SP · last 3 starts: 15.0 IP, 3.00 ERA, 21 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
KC·HOU
Sep 15 at HOU
last game
Sep 15 vs KC
0 days
days of rest
0 days
5
games in last 7 days
6
5th straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 151+ games
KC·HOU
−0.13
rating (0 = average)
−0.04
4.2
runs / game
4.5
4.8
runs allowed / game
4.8
66−85
season record
76−75
39−36
home record
38−38
27−49
away record
38−37
L3
streak
W1
3−7
last 10
4−6
8.2
hits / game
8.0
1.03
home runs / game
1.32
3.2
walks drawn / game
3.3
7.9
batter strikeouts / game
8.2
7.2
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.7
0.44
errors / game
0.44

Rating Trend

KC · HOU · 172 days
Kansas City RoyalsHouston Astros
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · HOU 6−4
Sep 15at HOUHOU 4 − 2
Jun 14at KCKC 4 − 0
Jun 13at KCHOU 8 − 7
Jun 12at KCHOU 10 − 8
May 14, 2025at HOUHOU 4 − 3
May 13, 2025at HOUHOU 2 − 1
May 12, 2025at HOUKC 7 − 5
Apr 27, 2025at KCHOU 7 − 3
Apr 26, 2025at KCKC 2 − 0
Apr 25, 2025at KCKC 2 − 0

KC · Last 10

3−7 · streak L3
Sep 15at HOU2 − 4L
Sep 13at BOS1 − 4L
Sep 12at BOS1 − 5L
Sep 11at BOS3 − 2W
Sep 9vs ARI5 − 2W
Sep 8vs ARI3 − 5L
Sep 7vs ARI4 − 5L
Sep 6vs TOR6 − 1W
Sep 5vs TOR3 − 4L
Sep 4vs TOR2 − 9L

HOU · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Sep 15vs KC4 − 2W
Sep 13at TB4 − 14L
Sep 12at TB2 − 3L
Sep 11at TB1 − 3L
Sep 10at PHI2 − 1W
Sep 9at PHI7 − 11L
Sep 8at PHI6 − 5W
Sep 6vs ARI2 − 3L
Sep 5vs ARI3 − 4L
Sep 4vs ARI3 − 1W