bayesRatings

Astros at Rays

MLB · Saturday, Sep 12 · 5:10 PM CT · Tropicana Field · Final HOU 2 – TB 3
← MLB / Sep 12

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
HOU100001000250
TB00002010370
Team box
HOU·TB
5
hits
7
1
home runs
0
3
walks
4
14
strikeouts
4
129
pitches thrown
139
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Yainer DiazHOU3-4001
Isaac ParedesHOU1-4111
Richie PalaciosTB1-2002
Jose AltuveHOU1-3100
Jonathan ArandaTB1-3000
Nick MadrigalTB0-0001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Peter Lambert (L)HOU6.06304
Ian SeymourTB6.042110
Tyler Wells (W)TB1.00012
Bryan Baker (S)TB1.11001

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
TB +3
HOU +3
123456789
largest lead: TB 1 · HOU 1lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was HOU 44%, TB 56% · Updated Sep 12

Expected margin
TB by 0.6
Expected score
TB 4.5 – 3.9 HOU
Expected total
8.4
AstrosThe matchupRays
+128Our fair odds−128
3.9Expected runs4.5
−0.03Power rating+0.14
4.5Runs / game4.5
4.8Allowed / game4.1
8.1Hits / game8.7
1.30Home runs / game1.07
3.3Walks drawn / game3.2
75−73Season record88−59
5−5Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
HOU chance · TB chance
Our model fair43.8%56.2%
Kalshi44.7%59.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 5:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
HOUHouston Astros+12844%+12444.7%———
TBTampa Bay Rays−12856%−14859.7%———
SpreadTB by 0.6
HOUHouston Astros+0.6our margin————
TBTampa Bay Rays−0.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.4
Over8.4our total————
Under8.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Tampa Bay Rays by 0.6 expected
Houston Astros by 13 runs: <1%Houston Astros by 12 runs: <1%Houston Astros by 11 runs: <1%Houston Astros by 10 runs: <1%Houston Astros by 9 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 8 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 7 runs: 2%Houston Astros by 6 runs: 2%Houston Astros by 5 runs: 3%Houston Astros by 4 runs: 5%Houston Astros by 3 runs: 6%Houston Astros by 2 runs: 9%Houston Astros by 1 run: 13%Tampa Bay Rays by 1 run: 16%Tampa Bay Rays by 2 runs: 11%Tampa Bay Rays by 3 runs: 8%Tampa Bay Rays by 4 runs: 6%Tampa Bay Rays by 5 runs: 5%Tampa Bay Rays by 6 runs: 3%Tampa Bay Rays by 7 runs: 2%Tampa Bay Rays by 8 runs: 2%Tampa Bay Rays by 9 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 10 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 11 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 12 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 13 runs: <1%
← HOU wins byTB wins by →
Tampa Bay Rays wins by 2 or more40%
Tampa Bay Rays wins by 3 or more30%
Houston Astros wins by 2 or more30%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.4 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.565%
Total over 8.545%
Total over 10.528%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
HOUPeter Lambert SP · last 3 starts: 17.1 IP, 3.63 ERA, 17 Kstarted
TBIan Seymour SP · last 3 starts: 14.1 IP, 5.65 ERA, 20 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
HOU·TB
Sep 11 at TB
last game
Sep 11 vs HOU
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
5th straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 147+ games
HOU·TB
−0.03
rating (0 = average)
+0.14
4.5
runs / game
4.5
4.8
runs allowed / game
4.1
75−73
season record
88−59
37−38
home record
48−25
38−35
away record
40−34
L1
streak
W1
5−5
last 10
6−4
8.1
hits / game
8.7
1.30
home runs / game
1.07
3.3
walks drawn / game
3.2
8.2
batter strikeouts / game
7.0
8.8
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.0
0.45
errors / game
0.59

Rating Trend

HOU · TB · 168 days
Houston AstrosTampa Bay Rays
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · TB 6−4
Sep 11at TBTB 3 − 1
Jul 5at HOUHOU 2 − 0
Jul 4at HOUHOU 10 − 8
Jul 3at HOUTB 3 − 1
Jun 1, 2025at HOUHOU 1 − 0
May 31, 2025at HOUTB 16 − 3
May 30, 2025at HOUHOU 2 − 1
May 29, 2025at HOUTB 13 − 3
May 21, 2025at TBTB 8 − 4
May 20, 2025at TBTB 3 − 2

HOU · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Sep 11at TB1 − 3L
Sep 10at PHI2 − 1W
Sep 9at PHI7 − 11L
Sep 8at PHI6 − 5W
Sep 6vs ARI2 − 3L
Sep 5vs ARI3 − 4L
Sep 4vs ARI3 − 1W
Sep 3vs CHW6 − 2W
Sep 2vs CHW2 − 0W
Sep 1vs CHW1 − 5L

TB · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Sep 11vs HOU3 − 1W
Sep 10at ATL1 − 3L
Sep 9at ATL7 − 2W
Sep 8at ATL7 − 1W
Sep 6at TEX6 − 8L
Sep 5at TEX6 − 3W
Sep 4at TEX7 − 6W
Sep 3at TEX0 − 6L
Sep 2vs NYM4 − 10L
Sep 1vs NYM6 − 2W