bayesRatings

Rays at Braves

MLB · Tuesday, Sep 8 · 6:15 PM CT · Truist Park · Final TB 7 – ATL 1
← MLB / Sep 8

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
TB1030010117110
ATL100000000152
Team box
TB·ATL
11
hits
5
4
home runs
0
4
walks
1
9
strikeouts
3
133
pitches thrown
175
0
errors
2
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Yandy DiazTB2-5112
Liam HicksTB1-3112
Junior CamineroTB2-3211
Richie PalaciosTB1-4111
Victor Mesa Jr.TB2-5001
Drake BaldwinATL1-4001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Freddy Peralta (W)TB6.05112
AJ Smith-Shawver (L)ATL3.15423

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ATL +6
TB +6
123456789
largest lead: ATL 0 · TB 6lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was TB 47%, ATL 53% · Updated Sep 8

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
ATL 4.3 – 3.9 TB
Expected total
8.2
RaysThe matchupBraves
+113Our fair odds−113
3.9Expected runs4.3
+0.12Power rating+0.17
4.5Runs / game4.6
4.2Allowed / game3.8
8.8Hits / game8.3
1.04Home runs / game1.26
3.2Walks drawn / game2.9
85−58Season record85−59
6−4Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
TB chance · ATL chance
Our model fair46.9%53.1%
Kalshi50.7%53.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:15 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
TBTampa Bay Rays+11347%−10350.7%———
ATLAtlanta Braves−11353%−11653.7%———
Spreadabout even
TBTampa Bay Rays+0.4our margin————
ATLAtlanta Braves−0.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.2
Over8.2our total————
Under8.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Tampa Bay Rays by 12 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 11 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 10 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 9 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 8 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 7 runs: 2%Tampa Bay Rays by 6 runs: 2%Tampa Bay Rays by 5 runs: 4%Tampa Bay Rays by 4 runs: 5%Tampa Bay Rays by 3 runs: 7%Tampa Bay Rays by 2 runs: 10%Tampa Bay Rays by 1 run: 15%Atlanta Braves by 1 run: 14%Atlanta Braves by 2 runs: 11%Atlanta Braves by 3 runs: 8%Atlanta Braves by 4 runs: 6%Atlanta Braves by 5 runs: 4%Atlanta Braves by 6 runs: 3%Atlanta Braves by 7 runs: 2%Atlanta Braves by 8 runs: 2%Atlanta Braves by 9 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 10 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 11 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 12 runs: <1%
← TB wins byATL wins by →
Atlanta Braves wins by 2 or more39%
Atlanta Braves wins by 3 or more28%
Tampa Bay Rays wins by 2 or more32%
Decided by one run30%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.2 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 8%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 12%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.563%
Total over 8.543%
Total over 10.526%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
TBFreddy Peralta SP · last 3 starts: 19.0 IP, 2.84 ERA, 17 Kstarted
ATLAJ Smith-Shawver SP · last 3 starts: 13.1 IP, 8.10 ERA, 11 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
TB·ATL
Sep 6 at TEX
last game
Sep 7 at PHI
1 day
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
5th straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 143+ games
TB·ATL
+0.12
rating (0 = average)
+0.17
4.5
runs / game
4.6
4.2
runs allowed / game
3.8
85−58
season record
85−59
47−25
home record
48−24
38−33
away record
37−35
L1
streak
L1
6−4
last 10
6−4
8.8
hits / game
8.3
1.04
home runs / game
1.26
3.2
walks drawn / game
2.9
7.0
batter strikeouts / game
8.2
8.2
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.5
0.61
errors / game
0.43

Rating Trend

TB · ATL · 164 days
Tampa Bay RaysAtlanta Braves
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · ATL 5−5
Apr 13, 2025at TBTB 8 − 3
Apr 12, 2025at TBATL 5 − 4
Apr 11, 2025at TBTB 6 − 3
Jun 16, 2024at ATLTB 8 − 6
Jun 15, 2024at ATLATL 9 − 2
Jun 14, 2024at ATLATL 7 − 3
Jul 9, 2023at TBTB 10 − 4
Jul 8, 2023at TBATL 6 − 1
Jul 7, 2023at TBATL 2 − 1
Jul 18, 2021at ATLTB 7 − 5

TB · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Sep 6at TEX6 − 8L
Sep 5at TEX6 − 3W
Sep 4at TEX7 − 6W
Sep 3at TEX0 − 6L
Sep 2vs NYM4 − 10L
Sep 1vs NYM6 − 2W
Aug 31vs NYM2 − 3L
Aug 30vs SD5 − 4W
Aug 29vs SD7 − 6W
Aug 28vs SD9 − 4W

ATL · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Sep 7at PHI0 − 1L
Sep 6at PHI5 − 4W
Sep 5at PHI2 − 4L
Sep 4at PHI5 − 2W
Sep 2at WSH9 − 0W
Sep 1at WSH5 − 9L
Aug 31vs SF3 − 7L
Aug 30vs COL3 − 2W
Aug 29vs COL2 − 1W
Aug 28vs COL6 − 4W