bayesRatings

Rays at Braves

MLB · Wednesday, Sep 9 · 6:15 PM CT · Truist Park · Final TB 7 – ATL 2
← MLB / Sep 9

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
TB0303001007100
ATL000101000230
Team box
TB·ATL
10
hits
3
1
home runs
1
3
walks
3
6
strikeouts
5
128
pitches thrown
125
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Victor Mesa Jr.TB2-3211
Drake BaldwinATL1-3211
Jorge MateoTB1-3002
Yandy DiazTB1-4001
Cedric MullinsTB1-4101
Richie PalaciosTB1-3101
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Griffin Jax (W)TB5.02112
Reynaldo Lopez (L)ATL4.27635

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ATL +6
TB +6
123456789
largest lead: ATL 0 · TB 6lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was TB 48%, ATL 52% · Updated Sep 9

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
ATL 4.2 – 3.9 TB
Expected total
8.2
RaysThe matchupBraves
+110Our fair odds−110
3.9Expected runs4.2
+0.14Power rating+0.16
4.5Runs / game4.6
4.2Allowed / game3.8
8.8Hits / game8.3
1.06Home runs / game1.26
3.2Walks drawn / game2.9
86−58Season record85−60
6−4Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
TB chance · ATL chance
Our model fair47.6%52.4%
Kalshi48.7%55.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:15 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
TBTampa Bay Rays+11048%+10548.7%———
ATLAtlanta Braves−11052%−12655.7%———
Spreadabout even
TBTampa Bay Rays+0.3our margin————
ATLAtlanta Braves−0.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.2
Over8.2our total————
Under8.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Tampa Bay Rays by 12 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 11 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 10 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 9 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 8 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 7 runs: 2%Tampa Bay Rays by 6 runs: 2%Tampa Bay Rays by 5 runs: 4%Tampa Bay Rays by 4 runs: 5%Tampa Bay Rays by 3 runs: 7%Tampa Bay Rays by 2 runs: 10%Tampa Bay Rays by 1 run: 15%Atlanta Braves by 1 run: 15%Atlanta Braves by 2 runs: 11%Atlanta Braves by 3 runs: 8%Atlanta Braves by 4 runs: 6%Atlanta Braves by 5 runs: 4%Atlanta Braves by 6 runs: 3%Atlanta Braves by 7 runs: 2%Atlanta Braves by 8 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 9 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 10 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 11 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 12 runs: <1%
← TB wins byATL wins by →
Atlanta Braves wins by 2 or more38%
Atlanta Braves wins by 3 or more27%
Tampa Bay Rays wins by 2 or more32%
Decided by one run30%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.2 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 8%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 12%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.563%
Total over 8.543%
Total over 10.526%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
TBGriffin Jax SP · last 3 starts: 13.1 IP, 5.40 ERA, 19 Kstarted
ATLReynaldo Lopez RP · last 3 starts: 15.0 IP, 5.40 ERA, 15 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
TB·ATL
Sep 8 at ATL
last game
Sep 8 vs TB
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
6th straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 144+ games
TB·ATL
+0.14
rating (0 = average)
+0.16
4.5
runs / game
4.6
4.2
runs allowed / game
3.8
86−58
season record
85−60
47−25
home record
48−25
39−33
away record
37−35
W1
streak
L2
6−4
last 10
5−5
8.8
hits / game
8.3
1.06
home runs / game
1.26
3.2
walks drawn / game
2.9
7.0
batter strikeouts / game
8.1
8.1
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.5
0.60
errors / game
0.44

Rating Trend

TB · ATL · 165 days
Tampa Bay RaysAtlanta Braves
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · ATL 5−5
Sep 8at ATLTB 7 − 1
Apr 13, 2025at TBTB 8 − 3
Apr 12, 2025at TBATL 5 − 4
Apr 11, 2025at TBTB 6 − 3
Jun 16, 2024at ATLTB 8 − 6
Jun 15, 2024at ATLATL 9 − 2
Jun 14, 2024at ATLATL 7 − 3
Jul 9, 2023at TBTB 10 − 4
Jul 8, 2023at TBATL 6 − 1
Jul 7, 2023at TBATL 2 − 1

TB · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Sep 8at ATL7 − 1W
Sep 6at TEX6 − 8L
Sep 5at TEX6 − 3W
Sep 4at TEX7 − 6W
Sep 3at TEX0 − 6L
Sep 2vs NYM4 − 10L
Sep 1vs NYM6 − 2W
Aug 31vs NYM2 − 3L
Aug 30vs SD5 − 4W
Aug 29vs SD7 − 6W

ATL · Last 10

5−5 · streak L2
Sep 8vs TB1 − 7L
Sep 7at PHI0 − 1L
Sep 6at PHI5 − 4W
Sep 5at PHI2 − 4L
Sep 4at PHI5 − 2W
Sep 2at WSH9 − 0W
Sep 1at WSH5 − 9L
Aug 31vs SF3 − 7L
Aug 30vs COL3 − 2W
Aug 29vs COL2 − 1W