bayesRatings

Astros at Rays

MLB · Friday, Sep 11 · 6:10 PM CT · Tropicana Field · Final HOU 1 – TB 3
← MLB / Sep 11

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
HOU000100000190
TB000010002340
Team box
HOU·TB
9
hits
4
0
home runs
2
1
walks
2
6
strikeouts
5
116
pitches thrown
116
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Junior CamineroTB1-4112
Victor Mesa Jr.TB1-2111
Yainer DiazHOU2-3001
Jose AltuveHOU1-4000
Taylor TrammellHOU1-3000
Isaac ParedesHOU1-4100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Miguel UllolaHOU1.00000
Bryan Abreu (L)HOU0.12201
Drew RasmussenTB7.08104
Bryan Baker (W)TB1.00011

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
TB +3
HOU +3
123456789
largest lead: TB 2 · HOU 1lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was HOU 44%, TB 56% · Updated Sep 11

Expected margin
TB by 0.6
Expected score
TB 4.5 – 4.0 HOU
Expected total
8.5
AstrosThe matchupRays
+126Our fair odds−126
4.0Expected runs4.5
−0.02Power rating+0.14
4.5Runs / game4.5
4.8Allowed / game4.2
8.1Hits / game8.8
1.31Home runs / game1.06
3.3Walks drawn / game3.2
75−72Season record87−59
6−4Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
HOU chance · TB chance
Our model fair44.2%55.8%
Kalshi39.6%65.6%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
HOUHouston Astros+12644%+15239.6%———
TBTampa Bay Rays−12656%−19165.6%———
SpreadTB by 0.6
HOUHouston Astros+0.6our margin————
TBTampa Bay Rays−0.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.5
Over8.5our total————
Under8.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Tampa Bay Rays by 0.6 expected
Houston Astros by 13 runs: <1%Houston Astros by 12 runs: <1%Houston Astros by 11 runs: <1%Houston Astros by 10 runs: <1%Houston Astros by 9 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 8 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 7 runs: 2%Houston Astros by 6 runs: 2%Houston Astros by 5 runs: 3%Houston Astros by 4 runs: 5%Houston Astros by 3 runs: 6%Houston Astros by 2 runs: 9%Houston Astros by 1 run: 14%Tampa Bay Rays by 1 run: 15%Tampa Bay Rays by 2 runs: 11%Tampa Bay Rays by 3 runs: 8%Tampa Bay Rays by 4 runs: 6%Tampa Bay Rays by 5 runs: 5%Tampa Bay Rays by 6 runs: 3%Tampa Bay Rays by 7 runs: 2%Tampa Bay Rays by 8 runs: 2%Tampa Bay Rays by 9 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 10 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 11 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 12 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 13 runs: <1%
← HOU wins byTB wins by →
Tampa Bay Rays wins by 2 or more41%
Tampa Bay Rays wins by 3 or more30%
Houston Astros wins by 2 or more31%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.5 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.565%
Total over 8.546%
Total over 10.529%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
HOUMiguel Ullola RP · no recent starts on recordstarted
TBDrew Rasmussen SP · last 3 starts: 19.0 IP, 1.89 ERA, 18 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
HOU·TB
Sep 10 at PHI
last game
Sep 10 at ATL
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
4th straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 146+ games
HOU·TB
−0.02
rating (0 = average)
+0.14
4.5
runs / game
4.5
4.8
runs allowed / game
4.2
75−72
season record
87−59
37−38
home record
47−25
38−34
away record
40−34
W1
streak
L1
6−4
last 10
5−5
8.1
hits / game
8.8
1.31
home runs / game
1.06
3.3
walks drawn / game
3.2
8.2
batter strikeouts / game
7.0
8.8
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.1
0.45
errors / game
0.60

Rating Trend

HOU · TB · 167 days
Houston AstrosTampa Bay Rays
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · TB 5−5
Jul 5at HOUHOU 2 − 0
Jul 4at HOUHOU 10 − 8
Jul 3at HOUTB 3 − 1
Jun 1, 2025at HOUHOU 1 − 0
May 31, 2025at HOUTB 16 − 3
May 30, 2025at HOUHOU 2 − 1
May 29, 2025at HOUTB 13 − 3
May 21, 2025at TBTB 8 − 4
May 20, 2025at TBTB 3 − 2
May 19, 2025at TBHOU 4 − 3

HOU · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Sep 10at PHI2 − 1W
Sep 9at PHI7 − 11L
Sep 8at PHI6 − 5W
Sep 6vs ARI2 − 3L
Sep 5vs ARI3 − 4L
Sep 4vs ARI3 − 1W
Sep 3vs CHW6 − 2W
Sep 2vs CHW2 − 0W
Sep 1vs CHW1 − 5L
Aug 31vs CHW6 − 3W

TB · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Sep 10at ATL1 − 3L
Sep 9at ATL7 − 2W
Sep 8at ATL7 − 1W
Sep 6at TEX6 − 8L
Sep 5at TEX6 − 3W
Sep 4at TEX7 − 6W
Sep 3at TEX0 − 6L
Sep 2vs NYM4 − 10L
Sep 1vs NYM6 − 2W
Aug 31vs NYM2 − 3L