bayesRatings

Royals at Astros

MLB · Thursday, Sep 17 · 6:15 PM CT · Daikin Park · Final KC 2 – HOU 6
← MLB / Sep 17

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
KC100000010230
HOU110021016110
Team box
KC·HOU
3
hits
11
0
home runs
5
2
walks
2
6
strikeouts
7
134
pitches thrown
117
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Jeremy PenaHOU2-5112
Yordan AlvarezHOU2-4111
LaMonte Wade Jr.HOU2-4111
Taylor TrammellHOU1-3211
Daulton VarshoHOU1-4111
Carter JensenKC2-3101
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Seth Lugo (L)KC5.08415
Miguel UllolaHOU0.20120
Bryan King (W)HOU1.10001

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
HOU +4
KC +4
123456789
largest lead: HOU 4 · KC 1lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was KC 46%, HOU 54% · Updated Sep 17

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
HOU 4.5 – 4.3 KC
Expected total
8.8
RoyalsThe matchupAstros
+117Our fair odds−117
4.3Expected runs4.5
−0.12Power rating−0.04
4.2Runs / game4.4
4.8Allowed / game4.8
8.2Hits / game8.0
1.04Home runs / game1.32
3.2Walks drawn / game3.3
67−85Season record76−76
4−6Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
KC chance · HOU chance
Our model fair46.1%53.9%
Kalshi43.7%60.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:15 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
KCKansas City Royals+11746%+12943.7%———
HOUHouston Astros−11754%−15460.7%———
Spreadabout even
KCKansas City Royals+0.2our margin————
HOUHouston Astros−0.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.8
Over8.8our total————
Under8.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Kansas City Royals by 13 runs: <1%Kansas City Royals by 12 runs: <1%Kansas City Royals by 11 runs: <1%Kansas City Royals by 10 runs: 1%Kansas City Royals by 9 runs: 1%Kansas City Royals by 8 runs: 1%Kansas City Royals by 7 runs: 2%Kansas City Royals by 6 runs: 3%Kansas City Royals by 5 runs: 4%Kansas City Royals by 4 runs: 5%Kansas City Royals by 3 runs: 7%Kansas City Royals by 2 runs: 10%Kansas City Royals by 1 run: 12%Houston Astros by 1 run: 17%Houston Astros by 2 runs: 10%Houston Astros by 3 runs: 7%Houston Astros by 4 runs: 6%Houston Astros by 5 runs: 4%Houston Astros by 6 runs: 3%Houston Astros by 7 runs: 2%Houston Astros by 8 runs: 2%Houston Astros by 9 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 10 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 11 runs: <1%Houston Astros by 12 runs: <1%Houston Astros by 13 runs: <1%
← KC wins byHOU wins by →
Houston Astros wins by 2 or more37%
Houston Astros wins by 3 or more27%
Kansas City Royals wins by 2 or more35%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.8 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.568%
Total over 8.548%
Total over 10.531%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
KCSeth Lugo SP · last 3 starts: 13.2 IP, 9.22 ERA, 10 Kstarted
HOUMiguel Ullola RP · last 1 start: 1.0 IP, 0.00 ERA, 0 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
KC·HOU
Sep 16 at HOU
last game
Sep 16 vs KC
0 days
days of rest
0 days
5
games in last 7 days
6
6th straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 152+ games
KC·HOU
−0.12
rating (0 = average)
−0.04
4.2
runs / game
4.4
4.8
runs allowed / game
4.8
67−85
season record
76−76
39−36
home record
38−39
28−49
away record
38−37
W1
streak
L1
4−6
last 10
3−7
8.2
hits / game
8.0
1.04
home runs / game
1.32
3.2
walks drawn / game
3.3
7.8
batter strikeouts / game
8.2
7.2
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.7
0.44
errors / game
0.45

Rating Trend

KC · HOU · 173 days
Kansas City RoyalsHouston Astros
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · HOU 6−4
Sep 16at HOUKC 5 − 2
Sep 15at HOUHOU 4 − 2
Jun 14at KCKC 4 − 0
Jun 13at KCHOU 8 − 7
Jun 12at KCHOU 10 − 8
May 14, 2025at HOUHOU 4 − 3
May 13, 2025at HOUHOU 2 − 1
May 12, 2025at HOUKC 7 − 5
Apr 27, 2025at KCHOU 7 − 3
Apr 26, 2025at KCKC 2 − 0

KC · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Sep 16at HOU5 − 2W
Sep 15at HOU2 − 4L
Sep 13at BOS1 − 4L
Sep 12at BOS1 − 5L
Sep 11at BOS3 − 2W
Sep 9vs ARI5 − 2W
Sep 8vs ARI3 − 5L
Sep 7vs ARI4 − 5L
Sep 6vs TOR6 − 1W
Sep 5vs TOR3 − 4L

HOU · Last 10

3−7 · streak L1
Sep 16vs KC2 − 5L
Sep 15vs KC4 − 2W
Sep 13at TB4 − 14L
Sep 12at TB2 − 3L
Sep 11at TB1 − 3L
Sep 10at PHI2 − 1W
Sep 9at PHI7 − 11L
Sep 8at PHI6 − 5W
Sep 6vs ARI2 − 3L
Sep 5vs ARI3 − 4L