bayesRatings

Blue Jays at Rangers

MLB · Saturday, Sep 19 · 6:05 PM CT · Globe Life Field · Final TOR 2 – TEX 6
← MLB / Sep 19

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
TOR000001100261
TEX12000300650
Team box
TOR·TEX
6
hits
5
1
home runs
1
1
walks
4
4
strikeouts
12
120
pitches thrown
125
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Josh JungTEX1-3211
Davis SchneiderTOR1-2111
Alejandro KirkTOR2-4001
Danny JansenTEX1-2001
Wyatt LangfordTEX1-2201
Brandon NimmoTEX1-4100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Jose Soriano (L)TOR5.04518
Cal QuantrillTEX1.10000
Jordan Montgomery (W)TEX3.20011

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
TEX +5
TOR +5
123456789
largest lead: TEX 5 · TOR 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was TOR 50%, TEX 50% · Updated Sep 19

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
TEX 4.2 – 4.2 TOR
Expected total
8.3
Blue JaysThe matchupRangers
+100Our fair odds−100
4.2Expected runs4.2
+0.04Power rating−0.04
4.0Runs / game4.2
4.3Allowed / game4.4
8.4Hits / game8.1
0.96Home runs / game1.13
2.8Walks drawn / game3.3
76−78Season record77−77
4−6Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
TOR chance · TEX chance
Our model fair50.0%50.0%
Kalshi50.7%53.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:05 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
TORToronto Blue Jays+10050%−10350.7%———
TEXTexas Rangers−10050%−11653.7%———
Spreadabout even
TORToronto Blue JaysPKour margin————
TEXTexas RangersPKour margin————
Totalwe expect 8.3
Over8.3our total————
Under8.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Toronto Blue Jays by 12 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 11 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 10 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 9 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 8 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 7 runs: 2%Toronto Blue Jays by 6 runs: 3%Toronto Blue Jays by 5 runs: 4%Toronto Blue Jays by 4 runs: 5%Toronto Blue Jays by 3 runs: 7%Toronto Blue Jays by 2 runs: 10%Toronto Blue Jays by 1 run: 15%Texas Rangers by 1 run: 15%Texas Rangers by 2 runs: 10%Texas Rangers by 3 runs: 7%Texas Rangers by 4 runs: 5%Texas Rangers by 5 runs: 4%Texas Rangers by 6 runs: 3%Texas Rangers by 7 runs: 2%Texas Rangers by 8 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 9 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 10 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 11 runs: <1%Texas Rangers by 12 runs: <1%
← TOR wins byTEX wins by →
Texas Rangers wins by 2 or more35%
Texas Rangers wins by 3 or more25%
Toronto Blue Jays wins by 2 or more35%
Decided by one run30%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.3 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 12%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.564%
Total over 8.544%
Total over 10.527%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
TORJose Soriano SP · last 3 starts: 18.0 IP, 4.50 ERA, 10 Kstarted
TEXCal Quantrill RP · last 3 starts: 19.0 IP, 2.37 ERA, 13 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
TOR·TEX
Sep 18 at TEX
last game
Sep 18 vs TOR
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
2nd straight road game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 154+ games
TOR·TEX
+0.04
rating (0 = average)
−0.04
4.0
runs / game
4.2
4.3
runs allowed / game
4.4
76−78
season record
77−77
40−38
home record
43−33
36−40
away record
34−44
L1
streak
W1
4−6
last 10
6−4
8.4
hits / game
8.1
0.96
home runs / game
1.13
2.8
walks drawn / game
3.3
7.2
batter strikeouts / game
8.5
8.7
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.4
0.62
errors / game
0.43

Rating Trend

TOR · TEX · 175 days
Toronto Blue JaysTexas Rangers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · TEX 7−3
Sep 18at TEXTEX 7 − 1
Jun 28at TORTEX 3 − 2
Jun 27at TORTEX 7 − 4
Jun 26at TORTEX 5 − 4
Jun 25at TORTEX 6 − 5
Aug 17, 2025at TORTEX 10 − 4
Aug 16, 2025at TORTOR 14 − 2
Aug 15, 2025at TORTOR 6 − 5
May 28, 2025at TEXTOR 2 − 0
May 27, 2025at TEXTEX 2 − 0

TOR · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
Sep 18at TEX1 − 7L
Sep 16vs DET5 − 1W
Sep 15vs DET1 − 10L
Sep 14vs DET5 − 6L
Sep 13vs BAL8 − 1W
Sep 12vs BAL7 − 3W
Sep 11vs BAL4 − 7L
Sep 9at ATH0 − 2L
Sep 8at ATH4 − 2W
Sep 7at ATH5 − 6L

TEX · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Sep 18vs TOR7 − 1W
Sep 17vs BOS3 − 4L
Sep 16vs BOS7 − 3W
Sep 15vs BOS4 − 2W
Sep 13at ARI7 − 6W
Sep 12at ARI6 − 2W
Sep 11at ARI1 − 9L
Sep 10at SEA3 − 4L
Sep 9at SEA2 − 3L
Sep 8at SEA10 − 5W