bayesRatings

Orioles at Blue Jays

MLB · Saturday, Sep 12 · 2:07 PM CT · Rogers Centre · Final BAL 3 – TOR 7
← MLB / Sep 12

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
BAL000100200360
TOR203001107113
Team box
BAL·TOR
6
hits
11
1
home runs
2
4
walks
5
11
strikeouts
10
153
pitches thrown
148
0
errors
3
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Alejandro KirkTOR2-4113
Pete AlonsoBAL1-3112
Brett BatemanTOR1-4211
Andres GimenezTOR2-4001
George SpringerTOR2-5100
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.TOR1-4201
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Kyle Bradish (L)BAL3.08522
Spencer MilesTOR2.01025
Spencer Arrighetti (W)TOR2.22022

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
TOR +5
BAL +5
123456789
largest lead: TOR 5 · BAL 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was BAL 46%, TOR 54% · Updated Sep 12

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
TOR 4.4 – 4.0 BAL
Expected total
8.4
OriolesThe matchupBlue Jays
+119Our fair odds−119
4.0Expected runs4.4
−0.05Power rating+0.04
4.5Runs / game4.0
4.7Allowed / game4.3
7.8Hits / game8.4
1.20Home runs / game0.96
3.7Walks drawn / game2.8
72−76Season record73−75
3−7Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
BAL chance · TOR chance
Our model fair45.7%54.3%
Kalshi46.7%57.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 2:07 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
BALBaltimore Orioles+11946%+11446.7%———
TORToronto Blue Jays−11954%−13757.7%———
Spreadabout even
BALBaltimore Orioles+0.3our margin————
TORToronto Blue Jays−0.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.4
Over8.4our total————
Under8.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Baltimore Orioles by 12 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 11 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 10 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 9 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 8 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 7 runs: 2%Baltimore Orioles by 6 runs: 3%Baltimore Orioles by 5 runs: 4%Baltimore Orioles by 4 runs: 5%Baltimore Orioles by 3 runs: 7%Baltimore Orioles by 2 runs: 10%Baltimore Orioles by 1 run: 13%Toronto Blue Jays by 1 run: 17%Toronto Blue Jays by 2 runs: 10%Toronto Blue Jays by 3 runs: 8%Toronto Blue Jays by 4 runs: 6%Toronto Blue Jays by 5 runs: 4%Toronto Blue Jays by 6 runs: 3%Toronto Blue Jays by 7 runs: 2%Toronto Blue Jays by 8 runs: 2%Toronto Blue Jays by 9 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 10 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 11 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 12 runs: <1%
← BAL wins byTOR wins by →
Toronto Blue Jays wins by 2 or more38%
Toronto Blue Jays wins by 3 or more27%
Baltimore Orioles wins by 2 or more33%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.4 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.565%
Total over 8.545%
Total over 10.528%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
BALKyle Bradish SP · last 3 starts: 13.1 IP, 6.08 ERA, 11 Kstarted
TORSpencer Miles RP · last 3 starts: 7.0 IP, 7.71 ERA, 5 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
BAL·TOR
Sep 11 at TOR
last game
Sep 11 vs BAL
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
2nd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 148+ games
BAL·TOR
−0.05
rating (0 = average)
+0.04
4.5
runs / game
4.0
4.7
runs allowed / game
4.3
72−76
season record
73−75
36−39
home record
37−36
36−37
away record
36−39
W2
streak
L2
3−7
last 10
5−5
7.8
hits / game
8.4
1.20
home runs / game
0.96
3.7
walks drawn / game
2.8
9.3
batter strikeouts / game
7.2
8.0
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.6
0.61
errors / game
0.58

Rating Trend

BAL · TOR · 168 days
Baltimore OriolesToronto Blue Jays
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · TOR 6−4
Sep 11at TORBAL 7 − 4
Jun 7at TORTOR 6 − 4
Jun 6at TORTOR 6 − 4
Jun 5at TORBAL 13 − 3
May 31at BALBAL 9 − 5
May 30at BALBAL 6 − 5
May 29at BALTOR 6 − 5
May 28at BALTOR 2 − 1
Sep 14, 2025at TORTOR 11 − 2
Sep 13, 2025at TORTOR 5 − 4

BAL · Last 10

3−7 · streak W2
Sep 11at TOR7 − 4W
Sep 9vs CLE9 − 5W
Sep 8vs CLE5 − 9L
Sep 7vs CLE6 − 4W
Sep 6vs BOS1 − 3L
Sep 5vs BOS0 − 5L
Sep 4vs BOS0 − 1L
Sep 3vs BOS5 − 6L
Sep 2at COL5 − 6L
Sep 1at COL2 − 4L

TOR · Last 10

5−5 · streak L2
Sep 11vs BAL4 − 7L
Sep 9at ATH0 − 2L
Sep 8at ATH4 − 2W
Sep 7at ATH5 − 6L
Sep 6at KC1 − 6L
Sep 5at KC4 − 3W
Sep 4at KC9 − 2W
Sep 3at CLE6 − 3W
Sep 2at CLE11 − 0W
Sep 1at CLE1 − 6L