bayesRatings

Guardians at Orioles

MLB · Monday, Sep 7 · 12:35 PM CT · Oriole Park at Camden Yards · Final CLE 4 – BAL 6
← MLB / Sep 7

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
CLE000001003490
BAL01300200690
Team box
CLE·BAL
9
hits
9
1
home runs
2
0
walks
7
6
strikeouts
11
180
pitches thrown
134
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Coby MayoBAL2-5223
Nathaniel LoweCLE1-1113
Jo AdellCLE2-4101
Rece HindsBAL2-2000
Samuel BasalloBAL2-3200
Dylan BeaversBAL1-4001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Joey Cantillo (L)CLE2.13453
Trevor Rogers (W)BAL7.16106
Josh Walker (S)BAL0.10000

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
BAL +5
CLE +5
123456789
largest lead: BAL 5 · CLE 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CLE 50%, BAL 50% · Updated Sep 7

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
BAL 4.3 – 4.3 CLE
Expected total
8.6
GuardiansThe matchupOrioles
+102Our fair odds−102
4.3Expected runs4.3
−0.00Power rating−0.06
4.0Runs / game4.5
4.1Allowed / game4.7
7.8Hits / game7.8
0.93Home runs / game1.19
3.5Walks drawn / game3.7
73−71Season record69−75
5−5Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CLE chance · BAL chance
Our model fair49.5%50.5%
Kalshi45.7%58.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 12:35 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CLECleveland Guardians+10250%+11945.7%———
BALBaltimore Orioles−10250%−14258.7%———
Spreadabout even
CLECleveland GuardiansPKour margin————
BALBaltimore OriolesPKour margin————
Totalwe expect 8.6
Over8.6our total————
Under8.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Cleveland Guardians by 12 runs: <1%Cleveland Guardians by 11 runs: <1%Cleveland Guardians by 10 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 9 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 8 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 7 runs: 2%Cleveland Guardians by 6 runs: 3%Cleveland Guardians by 5 runs: 4%Cleveland Guardians by 4 runs: 5%Cleveland Guardians by 3 runs: 7%Cleveland Guardians by 2 runs: 10%Cleveland Guardians by 1 run: 14%Baltimore Orioles by 1 run: 15%Baltimore Orioles by 2 runs: 10%Baltimore Orioles by 3 runs: 7%Baltimore Orioles by 4 runs: 5%Baltimore Orioles by 5 runs: 4%Baltimore Orioles by 6 runs: 3%Baltimore Orioles by 7 runs: 2%Baltimore Orioles by 8 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 9 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 10 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 11 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 12 runs: <1%
← CLE wins byBAL wins by →
Baltimore Orioles wins by 2 or more36%
Baltimore Orioles wins by 3 or more26%
Cleveland Guardians wins by 2 or more36%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.6 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.566%
Total over 8.546%
Total over 10.530%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
CLEJoey Cantillo SP · last 3 starts: 16.0 IP, 3.94 ERA, 12 Kstarted
BALTrevor Rogers SP · last 3 starts: 18.2 IP, 5.30 ERA, 24 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CLE·BAL
Sep 6 vs DET
last game
Sep 6 vs BOS
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
7
road after a home game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 144+ games
CLE·BAL
−0.00
rating (0 = average)
−0.06
4.0
runs / game
4.5
4.1
runs allowed / game
4.7
73−71
season record
69−75
36−39
home record
34−38
37−32
away record
35−37
W1
streak
L6
5−5
last 10
4−6
7.8
hits / game
7.8
0.93
home runs / game
1.19
3.5
walks drawn / game
3.7
8.0
batter strikeouts / game
9.2
9.4
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.1
0.53
errors / game
0.60

Rating Trend

CLE · BAL · 163 days
Cleveland GuardiansBaltimore Orioles
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · BAL 4−6
Apr 19at CLECLE 8 − 4
Apr 18at CLECLE 4 − 2
Apr 17at CLEBAL 6 − 4
Apr 16at CLECLE 4 − 2
Jul 24, 2025at CLEBAL 4 − 3
Jul 23, 2025at CLECLE 3 − 2
Jul 22, 2025at CLECLE 6 − 3
Jul 21, 2025at CLECLE 10 − 5
Apr 17, 2025at BALBAL 6 − 2
Apr 16, 2025at BALBAL 9 − 1

CLE · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Sep 6vs DET3 − 2W
Sep 5vs DET0 − 6L
Sep 4vs DET4 − 3W
Sep 4vs DET7 − 6W
Sep 3vs TOR3 − 6L
Sep 2vs TOR0 − 11L
Sep 1vs TOR6 − 1W
Aug 30vs KC11 − 1W
Aug 29vs KC3 − 8L
Aug 28vs KC0 − 3L

BAL · Last 10

4−6 · streak L6
Sep 6vs BOS1 − 3L
Sep 5vs BOS0 − 5L
Sep 4vs BOS0 − 1L
Sep 3vs BOS5 − 6L
Sep 2at COL5 − 6L
Sep 1at COL2 − 4L
Aug 31at COL2 − 1W
Aug 30at ATH8 − 5W
Aug 29at ATH5 − 3W
Aug 28at ATH4 − 3W