bayesRatings

Guardians at Orioles

MLB · Wednesday, Sep 9 · 5:35 PM CT · Oriole Park at Camden Yards · Final CLE 5 – BAL 9
← MLB / Sep 9

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
CLE200003000592
BAL008001009101
Team box
CLE·BAL
9
hits
10
2
home runs
1
2
walks
3
8
strikeouts
10
133
pitches thrown
155
2
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Chase DeLauterCLE2-5112
Dylan BeaversBAL2-5103
Nathaniel LoweCLE1-4112
Coby MayoBAL1-3211
Leody TaverasBAL2-4101
Jeremiah JacksonBAL1-4101
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Foster Griffin (L)CLE2.17824
Shane Baz (W)BAL5.26515
Rico Garcia (S)BAL1.22003

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
BAL +6
CLE +6
123456789
largest lead: BAL 6 · CLE 2lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CLE 50%, BAL 50% · Updated Sep 9

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
BAL 4.3 – 4.3 CLE
Expected total
8.7
GuardiansThe matchupOrioles
+101Our fair odds−101
4.3Expected runs4.3
−0.00Power rating−0.06
4.1Runs / game4.5
4.1Allowed / game4.7
7.9Hits / game7.8
0.93Home runs / game1.20
3.5Walks drawn / game3.7
74−72Season record70−76
6−4Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CLE chance · BAL chance
Our model fair49.7%50.3%
Kalshi54.7%48.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 5:35 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CLECleveland Guardians+10150%−12154.7%———
BALBaltimore Orioles−10150%+10548.7%———
Spreadabout even
CLECleveland GuardiansPKour margin————
BALBaltimore OriolesPKour margin————
Totalwe expect 8.7
Over8.7our total————
Under8.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Cleveland Guardians by 12 runs: <1%Cleveland Guardians by 11 runs: <1%Cleveland Guardians by 10 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 9 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 8 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 7 runs: 2%Cleveland Guardians by 6 runs: 3%Cleveland Guardians by 5 runs: 4%Cleveland Guardians by 4 runs: 5%Cleveland Guardians by 3 runs: 7%Cleveland Guardians by 2 runs: 10%Cleveland Guardians by 1 run: 14%Baltimore Orioles by 1 run: 15%Baltimore Orioles by 2 runs: 10%Baltimore Orioles by 3 runs: 7%Baltimore Orioles by 4 runs: 5%Baltimore Orioles by 5 runs: 4%Baltimore Orioles by 6 runs: 3%Baltimore Orioles by 7 runs: 2%Baltimore Orioles by 8 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 9 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 10 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 11 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 12 runs: <1%
← CLE wins byBAL wins by →
Baltimore Orioles wins by 2 or more36%
Baltimore Orioles wins by 3 or more26%
Cleveland Guardians wins by 2 or more36%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.7 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.567%
Total over 8.547%
Total over 10.530%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
CLEFoster Griffin SP · last 3 starts: 16.0 IP, 3.94 ERA, 11 Kstarted
BALShane Baz SP · last 3 starts: 17.2 IP, 3.06 ERA, 13 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CLE·BAL
Sep 8 at BAL
last game
Sep 8 vs CLE
0 days
days of rest
0 days
8
games in last 7 days
7
3rd straight road game
home / road
7th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 146+ games
CLE·BAL
−0.00
rating (0 = average)
−0.06
4.1
runs / game
4.5
4.1
runs allowed / game
4.7
74−72
season record
70−76
36−39
home record
35−39
38−33
away record
35−37
W1
streak
L1
6−4
last 10
3−7
7.9
hits / game
7.8
0.93
home runs / game
1.20
3.5
walks drawn / game
3.7
8.0
batter strikeouts / game
9.3
9.4
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.0
0.52
errors / game
0.60

Rating Trend

CLE · BAL · 165 days
Cleveland GuardiansBaltimore Orioles
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · BAL 3−7
Sep 8at BALCLE 9 − 5
Sep 7at BALBAL 6 − 4
Apr 19at CLECLE 8 − 4
Apr 18at CLECLE 4 − 2
Apr 17at CLEBAL 6 − 4
Apr 16at CLECLE 4 − 2
Jul 24, 2025at CLEBAL 4 − 3
Jul 23, 2025at CLECLE 3 − 2
Jul 22, 2025at CLECLE 6 − 3
Jul 21, 2025at CLECLE 10 − 5

CLE · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Sep 8at BAL9 − 5W
Sep 7at BAL4 − 6L
Sep 6vs DET3 − 2W
Sep 5vs DET0 − 6L
Sep 4vs DET4 − 3W
Sep 4vs DET7 − 6W
Sep 3vs TOR3 − 6L
Sep 2vs TOR0 − 11L
Sep 1vs TOR6 − 1W
Aug 30vs KC11 − 1W

BAL · Last 10

3−7 · streak L1
Sep 8vs CLE5 − 9L
Sep 7vs CLE6 − 4W
Sep 6vs BOS1 − 3L
Sep 5vs BOS0 − 5L
Sep 4vs BOS0 − 1L
Sep 3vs BOS5 − 6L
Sep 2at COL5 − 6L
Sep 1at COL2 − 4L
Aug 31at COL2 − 1W
Aug 30at ATH8 − 5W