bayesRatings

Orioles at Blue Jays

MLB · Sunday, Sep 13 · 12:37 PM CT · Rogers Centre · Final BAL 1 – TOR 8
← MLB / Sep 13

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
BAL000010000190
TOR010030048100
Team box
BAL·TOR
9
hits
10
0
home runs
3
6
walks
5
15
strikeouts
6
152
pitches thrown
163
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
George SpringerTOR2-5114
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.TOR4-5111
Pete AlonsoBAL3-5001
Kazuma OkamotoTOR1-3111
Dylan BeaversBAL2-4100
Andres GimenezTOR1-4001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Trevor Rogers (L)BAL6.07415
Dylan Cease (W)TOR5.04159

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
TOR +7
BAL +7
123456789
largest lead: TOR 7 · BAL 1lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was BAL 45%, TOR 55% · Updated Sep 13

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
TOR 4.4 – 4.1 BAL
Expected total
8.5
OriolesThe matchupBlue Jays
+120Our fair odds−120
4.1Expected runs4.4
−0.05Power rating+0.05
4.5Runs / game4.0
4.7Allowed / game4.3
7.8Hits / game8.4
1.20Home runs / game0.97
3.7Walks drawn / game2.8
72−77Season record74−75
3−7Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
BAL chance · TOR chance
Our model fair45.4%54.6%
Kalshi43.7%60.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 12:37 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
BALBaltimore Orioles+12045%+12943.7%———
TORToronto Blue Jays−12055%−15460.7%———
Spreadabout even
BALBaltimore Orioles+0.3our margin————
TORToronto Blue Jays−0.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.5
Over8.5our total————
Under8.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Baltimore Orioles by 13 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 12 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 11 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 10 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 9 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 8 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 7 runs: 2%Baltimore Orioles by 6 runs: 3%Baltimore Orioles by 5 runs: 4%Baltimore Orioles by 4 runs: 5%Baltimore Orioles by 3 runs: 7%Baltimore Orioles by 2 runs: 10%Baltimore Orioles by 1 run: 12%Toronto Blue Jays by 1 run: 17%Toronto Blue Jays by 2 runs: 10%Toronto Blue Jays by 3 runs: 7%Toronto Blue Jays by 4 runs: 6%Toronto Blue Jays by 5 runs: 4%Toronto Blue Jays by 6 runs: 3%Toronto Blue Jays by 7 runs: 2%Toronto Blue Jays by 8 runs: 2%Toronto Blue Jays by 9 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 10 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 11 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 12 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 13 runs: <1%
← BAL wins byTOR wins by →
Toronto Blue Jays wins by 2 or more38%
Toronto Blue Jays wins by 3 or more27%
Baltimore Orioles wins by 2 or more33%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.5 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.565%
Total over 8.546%
Total over 10.529%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
BALTrevor Rogers SP · last 3 starts: 19.0 IP, 4.26 ERA, 24 Kstarted
TORDylan Cease SP · last 3 starts: 17.0 IP, 2.65 ERA, 18 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
BAL·TOR
Sep 12 at TOR
last game
Sep 12 vs BAL
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
3rd straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 149+ games
BAL·TOR
−0.05
rating (0 = average)
+0.05
4.5
runs / game
4.0
4.7
runs allowed / game
4.3
72−77
season record
74−75
36−39
home record
38−36
36−38
away record
36−39
L1
streak
W1
3−7
last 10
6−4
7.8
hits / game
8.4
1.20
home runs / game
0.97
3.7
walks drawn / game
2.8
9.3
batter strikeouts / game
7.2
8.1
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.7
0.60
errors / game
0.60

Rating Trend

BAL · TOR · 169 days
Baltimore OriolesToronto Blue Jays
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · TOR 6−4
Sep 12at TORTOR 7 − 3
Sep 11at TORBAL 7 − 4
Jun 7at TORTOR 6 − 4
Jun 6at TORTOR 6 − 4
Jun 5at TORBAL 13 − 3
May 31at BALBAL 9 − 5
May 30at BALBAL 6 − 5
May 29at BALTOR 6 − 5
May 28at BALTOR 2 − 1
Sep 14, 2025at TORTOR 11 − 2

BAL · Last 10

3−7 · streak L1
Sep 12at TOR3 − 7L
Sep 11at TOR7 − 4W
Sep 9vs CLE9 − 5W
Sep 8vs CLE5 − 9L
Sep 7vs CLE6 − 4W
Sep 6vs BOS1 − 3L
Sep 5vs BOS0 − 5L
Sep 4vs BOS0 − 1L
Sep 3vs BOS5 − 6L
Sep 2at COL5 − 6L

TOR · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Sep 12vs BAL7 − 3W
Sep 11vs BAL4 − 7L
Sep 9at ATH0 − 2L
Sep 8at ATH4 − 2W
Sep 7at ATH5 − 6L
Sep 6at KC1 − 6L
Sep 5at KC4 − 3W
Sep 4at KC9 − 2W
Sep 3at CLE6 − 3W
Sep 2at CLE11 − 0W