bayesRatings

Tigers at White Sox

MLB · Sunday, Sep 20 · 1:10 PM CT · Rate Field · Final DET 1 – CHW 8
← MLB / Sep 20

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
DET000000010161
CHW010320028100
Team box
DET·CHW
6
hits
10
0
home runs
1
5
walks
8
9
strikeouts
7
178
pitches thrown
145
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Chase MeidrothCHW1-5212
Sam AntonacciCHW2-4102
Braden MontgomeryCHW2-4001
Eduardo ValenciaDET3-4000
Kyle TeelCHW1-4101
Tommy PhamCHW1-1000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Troy Melton (L)DET3.24434
Davis MartinCHW4.13026
Huascar Brazoban (W)CHW1.01000

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CHW +7
DET +7
123456789
largest lead: CHW 7 · DET 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was DET 49%, CHW 51% · Updated Sep 20

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
DET 4.4 – 4.2 CHW
Expected total
8.6
TigersThe matchupWhite Sox
+102Our fair odds−102
4.4Expected runs4.2
+0.04Power rating−0.03
4.5Runs / game4.7
4.0Allowed / game4.5
8.1Hits / game7.8
1.12Home runs / game1.28
3.6Walks drawn / game3.6
73−82Season record79−76
7−3Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
DET chance · CHW chance
Our model fair49.5%50.5%
Kalshi49.7%53.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 1:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
DETDetroit Tigers+10249%+10149.7%———
CHWChicago White Sox−10251%−11653.7%———
Spreadabout even
DETDetroit Tigers−0.2our margin————
CHWChicago White Sox+0.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.6
Over8.6our total————
Under8.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Detroit Tigers by 13 runs: <1%Detroit Tigers by 12 runs: <1%Detroit Tigers by 11 runs: <1%Detroit Tigers by 10 runs: 1%Detroit Tigers by 9 runs: 1%Detroit Tigers by 8 runs: 2%Detroit Tigers by 7 runs: 2%Detroit Tigers by 6 runs: 3%Detroit Tigers by 5 runs: 4%Detroit Tigers by 4 runs: 6%Detroit Tigers by 3 runs: 7%Detroit Tigers by 2 runs: 10%Detroit Tigers by 1 run: 12%Chicago White Sox by 1 run: 17%Chicago White Sox by 2 runs: 10%Chicago White Sox by 3 runs: 7%Chicago White Sox by 4 runs: 5%Chicago White Sox by 5 runs: 4%Chicago White Sox by 6 runs: 3%Chicago White Sox by 7 runs: 2%Chicago White Sox by 8 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 9 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 10 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 11 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 12 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 13 runs: <1%
← DET wins byCHW wins by →
Detroit Tigers wins by 2 or more38%
Detroit Tigers wins by 3 or more28%
Chicago White Sox wins by 2 or more33%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.6 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.566%
Total over 8.546%
Total over 10.530%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
DETTroy Melton SP · last 3 starts: 13.2 IP, 7.24 ERA, 10 Kstarted
CHWDavis Martin SP · last 3 starts: 12.2 IP, 2.84 ERA, 7 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
DET·CHW
Sep 19 at CHW
last game
Sep 19 vs DET
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
7
7th straight road game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 155+ games
DET·CHW
+0.04
rating (0 = average)
−0.03
4.5
runs / game
4.7
4.0
runs allowed / game
4.5
73−82
season record
79−76
39−36
home record
45−32
34−46
away record
34−44
L1
streak
W1
7−3
last 10
4−6
8.1
hits / game
7.8
1.12
home runs / game
1.28
3.6
walks drawn / game
3.6
8.7
batter strikeouts / game
9.3
8.0
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.2
0.49
errors / game
0.52

Rating Trend

DET · CHW · 176 days
Detroit TigersChicago White Sox
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CHW 6−4
Sep 19at CHWCHW 3 − 1
Sep 18at CHWDET 11 − 8
Sep 17at CHWCHW 3 − 1
Aug 16at DETCHW 7 − 5
Aug 15at DETCHW 4 − 3
Aug 14at DETCHW 9 − 5
Jun 21at DETDET 5 − 4
Jun 20at DETDET 4 − 1
Jun 19at DETDET 4 − 3
May 31at CHWCHW 2 − 1

DET · Last 10

7−3 · streak L1
Sep 19at CHW1 − 3L
Sep 18at CHW11 − 8W
Sep 17at CHW1 − 3L
Sep 16at TOR1 − 5L
Sep 15at TOR10 − 1W
Sep 14at TOR6 − 5W
Sep 13vs COL8 − 1W
Sep 12vs COL11 − 7W
Sep 11vs COL6 − 2W
Sep 9vs MIN7 − 2W

CHW · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Sep 19vs DET3 − 1W
Sep 18vs DET8 − 11L
Sep 17vs DET3 − 1W
Sep 16at CLE3 − 6L
Sep 15at CLE6 − 7L
Sep 14at CLE7 − 3W
Sep 13at STL1 − 3L
Sep 12at STL6 − 5W
Sep 11at STL3 − 7L
Sep 10vs PIT0 − 2L