bayesRatings

White Sox at Cardinals

MLB · Saturday, Sep 12 · 6:15 PM CT · Busch Stadium · Final CHW 6 – STL 5
← MLB / Sep 12

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
CHW000130002662
STL030100010581
Team box
CHW·STL
6
hits
8
1
home runs
1
7
walks
6
12
strikeouts
13
173
pitches thrown
163
2
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Randal GrichukCHW1-4112
Masyn WinnSTL2-4102
Nathan ChurchSTL3-4001
Leo BernalSTL1-5111
Munetaka MurakamiCHW1-4101
Tristan PetersCHW1-4001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Sean NewcombCHW1.11114
Jordan Hicks (W)CHW0.10010
Bryan Hudson (S)CHW1.00001
Kyle LeahySTL3.02004
Riley O'Brien (L)STL1.01212

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
STL +3
CHW +3
123456789
largest lead: STL 3 · CHW 1lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CHW 48%, STL 52% · Updated Sep 12

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
CHW 4.6 – 4.5 STL
Expected total
9.1
White SoxThe matchupCardinals
+109Our fair odds−109
4.6Expected runs4.5
−0.03Power rating−0.03
4.7Runs / game4.6
4.4Allowed / game4.6
7.9Hits / game8.2
1.31Home runs / game1.05
3.6Walks drawn / game3.2
75−72Season record73−75
3−7Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CHW chance · STL chance
Our model fair47.8%52.2%
Kalshi52.7%51.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:15 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CHWChicago White Sox+10948%−11252.7%———
STLSt. Louis Cardinals−10952%−10751.8%———
Spreadabout even
CHWChicago White Sox−0.1our margin————
STLSt. Louis Cardinals+0.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.1
Over9.1our total————
Under9.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Chicago White Sox by 13 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 12 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 11 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 10 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 9 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 8 runs: 2%Chicago White Sox by 7 runs: 2%Chicago White Sox by 6 runs: 3%Chicago White Sox by 5 runs: 4%Chicago White Sox by 4 runs: 6%Chicago White Sox by 3 runs: 7%Chicago White Sox by 2 runs: 10%Chicago White Sox by 1 run: 11%St. Louis Cardinals by 1 run: 17%St. Louis Cardinals by 2 runs: 9%St. Louis Cardinals by 3 runs: 7%St. Louis Cardinals by 4 runs: 5%St. Louis Cardinals by 5 runs: 4%St. Louis Cardinals by 6 runs: 3%St. Louis Cardinals by 7 runs: 2%St. Louis Cardinals by 8 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 9 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 10 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 11 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 12 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 13 runs: <1%
← CHW wins bySTL wins by →
Chicago White Sox wins by 2 or more38%
Chicago White Sox wins by 3 or more28%
St. Louis Cardinals wins by 2 or more35%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.1 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.559%
Total over 9.541%
Total over 11.526%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
CHWSean Newcomb RP · last 3 starts: 5.1 IP, 0.00 ERA, 5 Kstarted
STLKyle Leahy SP · last 3 starts: 9.2 IP, 5.59 ERA, 13 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CHW·STL
Sep 11 at STL
last game
Sep 11 vs CHW
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
2nd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 147+ games
CHW·STL
−0.03
rating (0 = average)
−0.03
4.7
runs / game
4.6
4.4
runs allowed / game
4.6
75−72
season record
73−75
43−31
home record
35−38
32−41
away record
38−37
L4
streak
W1
3−7
last 10
5−5
7.9
hits / game
8.2
1.31
home runs / game
1.05
3.6
walks drawn / game
3.2
9.1
batter strikeouts / game
7.8
8.2
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.9
0.50
errors / game
0.43

Rating Trend

CHW · STL · 168 days
Chicago White SoxSt. Louis Cardinals
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · STL 7−3
Sep 11at STLSTL 7 − 3
Jun 19, 2025at CHWSTL 8 − 6
Jun 19, 2025at CHWSTL 5 − 4
Jun 17, 2025at CHWSTL 12 − 2
May 5, 2024at STLCHW 5 − 1
May 4, 2024at STLCHW 6 − 5
May 3, 2024at STLSTL 3 − 0
Jul 9, 2023at CHWSTL 4 − 3
Jul 8, 2023at CHWSTL 3 − 0
Jul 7, 2023at CHWCHW 8 − 7

CHW · Last 10

3−7 · streak L4
Sep 11at STL3 − 7L
Sep 10vs PIT0 − 2L
Sep 9vs PIT2 − 4L
Sep 8vs PIT3 − 9L
Sep 6vs MIN10 − 1W
Sep 5vs MIN4 − 6L
Sep 4vs MIN4 − 1W
Sep 3at HOU2 − 6L
Sep 2at HOU0 − 2L
Sep 1at HOU5 − 1W

STL · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Sep 11vs CHW7 − 3W
Sep 9at SF6 − 7L
Sep 8at SF1 − 2L
Sep 7at SF4 − 5L
Sep 6at COL10 − 8W
Sep 5at COL7 − 10L
Sep 4at COL7 − 6W
Sep 3at LAD2 − 3L
Sep 2at LAD8 − 6W
Sep 1at LAD13 − 8W