bayesRatings

Pirates at White Sox

MLB · Thursday, Sep 10 · 6:40 PM CT · Rate Field · Final PIT 2 – CHW 0
← MLB / Sep 10

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
PIT000100010271
CHW000000000020
Team box
PIT·CHW
7
hits
2
1
home runs
0
1
walks
2
6
strikeouts
11
119
pitches thrown
139
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Oneil CruzPIT3-4112
Randal GrichukCHW1-1000
Colson MontgomeryCHW1-3000
Jared TrioloPIT1-2100
Spencer HorwitzPIT1-3000
Nick GonzalesPIT1-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Jared Jones (W)PIT7.01028
Mason Montgomery (S)PIT1.01001
Hagen SmithCHW2.02003
Erick Fedde (L)CHW5.14211

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CHW +3
PIT +3
123456789
largest lead: CHW 0 · PIT 2lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was PIT 49%, CHW 51% · Updated Sep 10

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
CHW 4.5 – 4.5 PIT
Expected total
9.0
PiratesThe matchupWhite Sox
+105Our fair odds−105
4.5Expected runs4.5
+0.01Power rating−0.02
4.8Runs / game4.7
4.6Allowed / game4.4
8.7Hits / game7.9
1.14Home runs / game1.31
3.6Walks drawn / game3.6
73−73Season record75−70
8−2Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
PIT chance · CHW chance
Our model fair48.7%51.3%
Kalshi50.7%54.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
PITPittsburgh Pirates+10549%−10350.7%———
CHWChicago White Sox−10551%−12154.7%———
Spreadabout even
PITPittsburgh Pirates+0.1our margin————
CHWChicago White Sox−0.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.0
Over9.0our total————
Under9.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Pittsburgh Pirates by 13 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 12 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 11 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 10 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 9 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 8 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 7 runs: 2%Pittsburgh Pirates by 6 runs: 3%Pittsburgh Pirates by 5 runs: 4%Pittsburgh Pirates by 4 runs: 5%Pittsburgh Pirates by 3 runs: 7%Pittsburgh Pirates by 2 runs: 10%Pittsburgh Pirates by 1 run: 13%Chicago White Sox by 1 run: 14%Chicago White Sox by 2 runs: 10%Chicago White Sox by 3 runs: 7%Chicago White Sox by 4 runs: 6%Chicago White Sox by 5 runs: 4%Chicago White Sox by 6 runs: 3%Chicago White Sox by 7 runs: 2%Chicago White Sox by 8 runs: 2%Chicago White Sox by 9 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 10 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 11 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 12 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 13 runs: <1%
← PIT wins byCHW wins by →
Chicago White Sox wins by 2 or more37%
Chicago White Sox wins by 3 or more27%
Pittsburgh Pirates wins by 2 or more35%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.0 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.558%
Total over 9.540%
Total over 11.525%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
PITJared Jones SP · last 3 starts: 14.2 IP, 3.07 ERA, 20 Kstarted
CHWHagen Smith SP · no recent starts on recordstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
PIT·CHW
Sep 9 at CHW
last game
Sep 9 vs PIT
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
3rd straight road game
home / road
6th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 145+ games
PIT·CHW
+0.01
rating (0 = average)
−0.02
4.8
runs / game
4.7
4.6
runs allowed / game
4.4
73−73
season record
75−70
38−34
home record
43−30
35−39
away record
32−40
W3
streak
L2
8−2
last 10
3−7
8.7
hits / game
7.9
1.14
home runs / game
1.31
3.6
walks drawn / game
3.6
9.4
batter strikeouts / game
9.2
9.2
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.3
0.62
errors / game
0.50

Rating Trend

PIT · CHW · 166 days
Pittsburgh PiratesChicago White Sox
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CHW 4−6
Sep 9at CHWPIT 4 − 2
Sep 8at CHWPIT 9 − 3
Jul 20, 2025at PITCHW 7 − 2
Jul 19, 2025at PITCHW 10 − 4
Jul 18, 2025at PITCHW 10 − 1
Jul 14, 2024at CHWPIT 9 − 4
Jul 13, 2024at CHWPIT 6 − 2
Jul 12, 2024at CHWPIT 4 − 1
Apr 9, 2023at PITPIT 1 − 0
Apr 8, 2023at PITCHW 11 − 5

PIT · Last 10

8−2 · streak W3
Sep 9at CHW4 − 2W
Sep 8at CHW9 − 3W
Sep 6vs LAA1 − 0W
Sep 5vs LAA1 − 6L
Sep 4vs LAA1 − 0W
Sep 3vs SF5 − 2W
Sep 2vs SF4 − 5L
Sep 1vs SF13 − 12W
Aug 30at STL5 − 4W
Aug 29at STL6 − 2W

CHW · Last 10

3−7 · streak L2
Sep 9vs PIT2 − 4L
Sep 8vs PIT3 − 9L
Sep 6vs MIN10 − 1W
Sep 5vs MIN4 − 6L
Sep 4vs MIN4 − 1W
Sep 3at HOU2 − 6L
Sep 2at HOU0 − 2L
Sep 1at HOU5 − 1W
Aug 31at HOU3 − 6L
Aug 30at MIN1 − 5L