bayesRatings

Twins at White Sox

MLB · Friday, Sep 4 · 6:40 PM CT · Rate Field · Final MIN 1 – CHW 4
← MLB / Sep 4

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
MIN000000001180
CHW11020000461
Team box
MIN·CHW
8
hits
6
1
home runs
3
3
walks
2
5
strikeouts
7
121
pitches thrown
138
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Colson MontgomeryCHW1-4112
Josh BellMIN2-3111
Miguel VargasCHW1-4111
Braden MontgomeryCHW1-3111
Kody ClemensMIN3-4000
Tristan PetersCHW2-3000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Zebby Matthews (L)MIN5.04414
Erick Fedde (W)CHW5.03022

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CHW +4
MIN +4
123456789
largest lead: CHW 4 · MIN 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIN 46%, CHW 54% · Updated Sep 4

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
CHW 4.9 – 4.5 MIN
Expected total
9.4
TwinsThe matchupWhite Sox
+118Our fair odds−118
4.5Expected runs4.9
−0.10Power rating−0.01
4.7Runs / game4.7
5.0Allowed / game4.5
8.3Hits / game7.9
1.18Home runs / game1.29
3.2Walks drawn / game3.6
67−73Season record73−67
4−6Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIN chance · CHW chance
Our model fair45.8%54.2%
Kalshi48.7%55.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MINMinnesota Twins+11846%+10548.7%———
CHWChicago White Sox−11854%−12655.7%———
Spreadabout even
MINMinnesota Twins+0.4our margin————
CHWChicago White Sox−0.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.4
Over9.4our total————
Under9.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Minnesota Twins by 14 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 13 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 12 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 11 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 10 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 9 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 8 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 7 runs: 2%Minnesota Twins by 6 runs: 3%Minnesota Twins by 5 runs: 4%Minnesota Twins by 4 runs: 5%Minnesota Twins by 3 runs: 7%Minnesota Twins by 2 runs: 9%Minnesota Twins by 1 run: 12%Chicago White Sox by 1 run: 15%Chicago White Sox by 2 runs: 10%Chicago White Sox by 3 runs: 7%Chicago White Sox by 4 runs: 6%Chicago White Sox by 5 runs: 5%Chicago White Sox by 6 runs: 3%Chicago White Sox by 7 runs: 3%Chicago White Sox by 8 runs: 2%Chicago White Sox by 9 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 10 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 11 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 12 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 13 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 14 runs: <1%
← MIN wins byCHW wins by →
Chicago White Sox wins by 2 or more40%
Chicago White Sox wins by 3 or more30%
Minnesota Twins wins by 2 or more34%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.4 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.561%
Total over 9.543%
Total over 11.528%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
MINZebby Matthews SP · last 3 starts: 21.0 IP, 1.29 ERA, 16 Kstarted
CHWErick Fedde SP · last 3 starts: 14.1 IP, 3.77 ERA, 12 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIN·CHW
Sep 2 vs DET
last game
Sep 3 at HOU
1 day
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
7
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 140+ games
MIN·CHW
−0.10
rating (0 = average)
−0.01
4.7
runs / game
4.7
5.0
runs allowed / game
4.5
67−73
season record
73−67
38−34
home record
41−27
29−39
away record
32−40
L1
streak
L2
4−6
last 10
5−5
8.3
hits / game
7.9
1.18
home runs / game
1.29
3.2
walks drawn / game
3.6
8.0
batter strikeouts / game
9.1
8.3
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.3
0.46
errors / game
0.51

Rating Trend

MIN · CHW · 160 days
Minnesota TwinsChicago White Sox
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CHW 6−4
Aug 30at MINMIN 5 − 1
Aug 29at MINCHW 3 − 2
Aug 28at MINCHW 7 − 4
Jun 3at MINCHW 8 − 0
Jun 2at MINMIN 6 − 4
Jun 1at MINMIN 9 − 6
May 28at CHWCHW 6 − 2
May 27at CHWCHW 15 − 2
May 26at CHWMIN 5 − 3
May 25at CHWCHW 3 − 1

MIN · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
Sep 2vs DET6 − 11L
Sep 1vs DET15 − 2W
Aug 31vs DET11 − 1W
Aug 30vs CHW5 − 1W
Aug 29vs CHW2 − 3L
Aug 28vs CHW4 − 7L
Aug 26at ATH4 − 7L
Aug 25at ATH2 − 4L
Aug 24at ATH9 − 6W
Aug 23at SD1 − 8L

CHW · Last 10

5−5 · streak L2
Sep 3at HOU2 − 6L
Sep 2at HOU0 − 2L
Sep 1at HOU5 − 1W
Aug 31at HOU3 − 6L
Aug 30at MIN1 − 5L
Aug 29at MIN3 − 2W
Aug 28at MIN7 − 4W
Aug 26vs TEX10 − 4W
Aug 25vs TEX11 − 7W
Aug 24vs TEX2 − 11L