bayesRatings

Tigers at Twins

MLB · Monday, Aug 31 · 6:40 PM CT · Target Field · Final DET 1 – MIN 11
← MLB / Aug 31

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
DET000001000152
MIN100133121190
Team box
DET·MIN
5
hits
9
1
home runs
4
3
walks
7
11
strikeouts
5
166
pitches thrown
130
2
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Ryan JeffersMIN2-3224
Hao-Yu LeeDET2-3111
Kody ClemensMIN1-2212
Walker JenkinsMIN1-3212
Brooks LeeMIN1-5003
Luke KeaschallMIN2-3300
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Jackson Jobe (L)DET5.06424
Taj Bradley (W)MIN7.04139

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIN +10
DET +10
123456789
largest lead: MIN 10 · DET 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was DET 52%, MIN 48% · Updated Aug 31

Expected margin
DET by 0.8
Expected score
DET 4.9 – 4.1 MIN
Expected total
9.0
TigersThe matchupTwins
−110Our fair odds+110
4.9Expected runs4.1
+0.04Power rating−0.13
4.4Runs / game4.6
3.9Allowed / game5.0
8.0Hits / game8.3
1.14Home runs / game1.15
3.5Walks drawn / game3.2
63−73Season record65−72
2−8Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
DET chance · MIN chance
Our model fair52.3%47.7%
Kalshi48.7%55.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
DETDetroit Tigers−11052%+10548.7%———
MINMinnesota Twins+11048%−12655.7%———
SpreadDET by 0.8
DETDetroit Tigers−0.8our margin————
MINMinnesota Twins+0.8our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.0
Over9.0our total————
Under9.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Detroit Tigers by 0.8 expected
Detroit Tigers by 14 runs: <1%Detroit Tigers by 13 runs: <1%Detroit Tigers by 12 runs: <1%Detroit Tigers by 11 runs: 1%Detroit Tigers by 10 runs: 1%Detroit Tigers by 9 runs: 1%Detroit Tigers by 8 runs: 2%Detroit Tigers by 7 runs: 3%Detroit Tigers by 6 runs: 4%Detroit Tigers by 5 runs: 5%Detroit Tigers by 4 runs: 6%Detroit Tigers by 3 runs: 8%Detroit Tigers by 2 runs: 10%Detroit Tigers by 1 run: 11%Minnesota Twins by 1 run: 17%Minnesota Twins by 2 runs: 9%Minnesota Twins by 3 runs: 6%Minnesota Twins by 4 runs: 5%Minnesota Twins by 5 runs: 3%Minnesota Twins by 6 runs: 2%Minnesota Twins by 7 runs: 2%Minnesota Twins by 8 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 9 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 10 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 11 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 12 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 13 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 14 runs: <1%
← DET wins byMIN wins by →
Detroit Tigers wins by 2 or more43%
Detroit Tigers wins by 3 or more33%
Minnesota Twins wins by 2 or more29%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.0 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.558%
Total over 9.540%
Total over 11.525%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
DETJackson Jobe SP · last 3 starts: 13.1 IP, 5.40 ERA, 11 Kstarted
MINTaj Bradley SP · last 3 starts: 15.2 IP, 5.74 ERA, 21 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
DET·MIN
Aug 30 vs LAD
last game
Aug 30 vs CHW
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
road after a home game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 136+ games
DET·MIN
+0.04
rating (0 = average)
−0.13
4.4
runs / game
4.6
3.9
runs allowed / game
5.0
63−73
season record
65−72
34−35
home record
36−33
29−38
away record
29−39
L1
streak
W1
2−8
last 10
3−7
8.0
hits / game
8.3
1.14
home runs / game
1.15
3.5
walks drawn / game
3.2
8.6
batter strikeouts / game
7.9
8.1
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.3
0.45
errors / game
0.46

Rating Trend

DET · MIN · 156 days
Detroit TigersMinnesota Twins
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MIN 6−4
Jun 11at DETDET 11 − 0
Jun 10at DETMIN 6 − 4
Jun 9at DETDET 10 − 4
Apr 9at MINMIN 3 − 1
Apr 8at MINMIN 8 − 6
Apr 7at MINMIN 4 − 2
Apr 6at MINMIN 7 − 3
Aug 17, 2025at MINMIN 8 − 1
Aug 16, 2025at MINDET 8 − 5
Aug 15, 2025at MINDET 7 − 0

DET · Last 10

2−8 · streak L1
Aug 30vs LAD1 − 6L
Aug 29vs LAD2 − 1W
Aug 28vs LAD1 − 2L
Aug 26vs TB0 − 3L
Aug 25vs TB4 − 1W
Aug 24vs TB1 − 4L
Aug 23at KC7 − 11L
Aug 22at KC1 − 3L
Aug 21at KC2 − 5L
Aug 19at PIT3 − 4L

MIN · Last 10

3−7 · streak W1
Aug 30vs CHW5 − 1W
Aug 29vs CHW2 − 3L
Aug 28vs CHW4 − 7L
Aug 26at ATH4 − 7L
Aug 25at ATH2 − 4L
Aug 24at ATH9 − 6W
Aug 23at SD1 − 8L
Aug 22at SD5 − 7L
Aug 21at SD2 − 6L
Aug 19vs ATL6 − 4W