bayesRatings

Tigers at Twins

MLB · Tuesday, Sep 1 · 6:40 PM CT · Target Field · Final DET 2 – MIN 15
← MLB / Sep 1

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
DET100000010281
MIN10003100115131
Team box
DET·MIN
8
hits
13
0
home runs
3
1
walks
6
8
strikeouts
6
169
pitches thrown
150
1
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Royce LewisMIN3-4213
Ryan JeffersMIN2-4113
Kaelen CulpepperMIN2-5103
Luke KeaschallMIN2-5102
Kody ClemensMIN1-3211
Hao-Yu LeeDET1-4001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Troy Melton (L)DET5.16514
Andrew MorrisMIN1.02100
Connor Prielipp (W)MIN5.03015

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIN +13
DET +13
123456789
largest lead: MIN 13 · DET 1lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was DET 51%, MIN 49% · Updated Sep 1

Expected margin
DET by 0.7
Expected score
DET 4.8 – 4.2 MIN
Expected total
9.0
TigersThe matchupTwins
−105Our fair odds+105
4.8Expected runs4.2
+0.02Power rating−0.11
4.4Runs / game4.6
4.0Allowed / game4.9
8.0Hits / game8.3
1.14Home runs / game1.17
3.5Walks drawn / game3.2
63−74Season record66−72
2−8Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
DET chance · MIN chance
Our model fair51.3%48.7%
Kalshi51.7%53.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
DETDetroit Tigers−10551%−10751.8%———
MINMinnesota Twins+10549%−11653.7%———
SpreadDET by 0.7
DETDetroit Tigers−0.7our margin————
MINMinnesota Twins+0.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.0
Over9.0our total————
Under9.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Detroit Tigers by 0.7 expected
Detroit Tigers by 14 runs: <1%Detroit Tigers by 13 runs: <1%Detroit Tigers by 12 runs: <1%Detroit Tigers by 11 runs: 1%Detroit Tigers by 10 runs: 1%Detroit Tigers by 9 runs: 1%Detroit Tigers by 8 runs: 2%Detroit Tigers by 7 runs: 3%Detroit Tigers by 6 runs: 4%Detroit Tigers by 5 runs: 5%Detroit Tigers by 4 runs: 6%Detroit Tigers by 3 runs: 8%Detroit Tigers by 2 runs: 10%Detroit Tigers by 1 run: 11%Minnesota Twins by 1 run: 17%Minnesota Twins by 2 runs: 9%Minnesota Twins by 3 runs: 6%Minnesota Twins by 4 runs: 5%Minnesota Twins by 5 runs: 3%Minnesota Twins by 6 runs: 2%Minnesota Twins by 7 runs: 2%Minnesota Twins by 8 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 9 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 10 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 11 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 12 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 13 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 14 runs: <1%
← DET wins byMIN wins by →
Detroit Tigers wins by 2 or more43%
Detroit Tigers wins by 3 or more32%
Minnesota Twins wins by 2 or more30%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.0 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.558%
Total over 9.540%
Total over 11.525%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
DETTroy Melton SP · last 3 starts: 17.0 IP, 3.71 ERA, 11 Kstarted
MINAndrew Morris RP · last 2 starts: 3.0 IP, 6.00 ERA, 2 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
DET·MIN
Aug 31 at MIN
last game
Aug 31 vs DET
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
2nd straight road game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 137+ games
DET·MIN
+0.02
rating (0 = average)
−0.11
4.4
runs / game
4.6
4.0
runs allowed / game
4.9
63−74
season record
66−72
34−35
home record
37−33
29−39
away record
29−39
L2
streak
W2
2−8
last 10
3−7
8.0
hits / game
8.3
1.14
home runs / game
1.17
3.5
walks drawn / game
3.2
8.6
batter strikeouts / game
7.9
8.1
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.3
0.46
errors / game
0.46

Rating Trend

DET · MIN · 157 days
Detroit TigersMinnesota Twins
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MIN 7−3
Aug 31at MINMIN 11 − 1
Jun 11at DETDET 11 − 0
Jun 10at DETMIN 6 − 4
Jun 9at DETDET 10 − 4
Apr 9at MINMIN 3 − 1
Apr 8at MINMIN 8 − 6
Apr 7at MINMIN 4 − 2
Apr 6at MINMIN 7 − 3
Aug 17, 2025at MINMIN 8 − 1
Aug 16, 2025at MINDET 8 − 5

DET · Last 10

2−8 · streak L2
Aug 31at MIN1 − 11L
Aug 30vs LAD1 − 6L
Aug 29vs LAD2 − 1W
Aug 28vs LAD1 − 2L
Aug 26vs TB0 − 3L
Aug 25vs TB4 − 1W
Aug 24vs TB1 − 4L
Aug 23at KC7 − 11L
Aug 22at KC1 − 3L
Aug 21at KC2 − 5L

MIN · Last 10

3−7 · streak W2
Aug 31vs DET11 − 1W
Aug 30vs CHW5 − 1W
Aug 29vs CHW2 − 3L
Aug 28vs CHW4 − 7L
Aug 26at ATH4 − 7L
Aug 25at ATH2 − 4L
Aug 24at ATH9 − 6W
Aug 23at SD1 − 8L
Aug 22at SD5 − 7L
Aug 21at SD2 − 6L