bayesRatings

Pirates at White Sox

MLB · Tuesday, Sep 8 · 6:40 PM CT · Rate Field · Final PIT 9 – CHW 3
← MLB / Sep 8

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
PIT5200200009180
CHW000011100360
Team box
PIT·CHW
18
hits
6
1
home runs
1
3
walks
0
3
strikeouts
10
134
pitches thrown
166
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Rafael Flores Jr.PIT3-5111
Oneil CruzPIT3-5102
Spencer HorwitzPIT2-5003
Kyle TeelCHW2-3111
Bryan ReynoldsPIT2-4202
Andrew BenintendiCHW2-4200
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Bubba Chandler (W)PIT6.04208
Sean Burke (L)CHW1.18722

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CHW +9
PIT +9
123456789
largest lead: CHW 0 · PIT 9lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was PIT 48%, CHW 52% · Updated Sep 8

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
CHW 4.6 – 4.5 PIT
Expected total
9.1
PiratesThe matchupWhite Sox
+109Our fair odds−109
4.5Expected runs4.6
−0.01Power rating+0.00
4.8Runs / game4.8
4.6Allowed / game4.4
8.6Hits / game7.9
1.15Home runs / game1.31
3.6Walks drawn / game3.6
71−73Season record75−68
6−4Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
PIT chance · CHW chance
Our model fair47.8%52.2%
Kalshi45.7%58.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
PITPittsburgh Pirates+10948%+11945.7%———
CHWChicago White Sox−10952%−14258.7%———
Spreadabout even
PITPittsburgh Pirates+0.2our margin————
CHWChicago White Sox−0.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.1
Over9.1our total————
Under9.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Pittsburgh Pirates by 13 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 12 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 11 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 10 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 9 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 8 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 7 runs: 2%Pittsburgh Pirates by 6 runs: 3%Pittsburgh Pirates by 5 runs: 4%Pittsburgh Pirates by 4 runs: 5%Pittsburgh Pirates by 3 runs: 7%Pittsburgh Pirates by 2 runs: 9%Pittsburgh Pirates by 1 run: 13%Chicago White Sox by 1 run: 14%Chicago White Sox by 2 runs: 10%Chicago White Sox by 3 runs: 7%Chicago White Sox by 4 runs: 6%Chicago White Sox by 5 runs: 4%Chicago White Sox by 6 runs: 3%Chicago White Sox by 7 runs: 2%Chicago White Sox by 8 runs: 2%Chicago White Sox by 9 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 10 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 11 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 12 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 13 runs: <1%
← PIT wins byCHW wins by →
Chicago White Sox wins by 2 or more38%
Chicago White Sox wins by 3 or more28%
Pittsburgh Pirates wins by 2 or more35%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.1 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.559%
Total over 9.541%
Total over 11.526%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
PITBubba Chandler SP · last 3 starts: 14.2 IP, 4.91 ERA, 13 Kstarted
CHWSean Burke SP · last 3 starts: 14.2 IP, 3.68 ERA, 13 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
PIT·CHW
Sep 6 vs LAA
last game
Sep 6 vs MIN
1 day
days of rest
1 day
6
games in last 7 days
6
road after a home game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 143+ games
PIT·CHW
−0.01
rating (0 = average)
+0.00
4.8
runs / game
4.8
4.6
runs allowed / game
4.4
71−73
season record
75−68
38−34
home record
43−28
33−39
away record
32−40
W1
streak
W1
6−4
last 10
5−5
8.6
hits / game
7.9
1.15
home runs / game
1.31
3.6
walks drawn / game
3.6
9.5
batter strikeouts / game
9.1
9.2
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.3
0.62
errors / game
0.51

Rating Trend

PIT · CHW · 164 days
Pittsburgh PiratesChicago White Sox
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CHW 5−5
Jul 20, 2025at PITCHW 7 − 2
Jul 19, 2025at PITCHW 10 − 4
Jul 18, 2025at PITCHW 10 − 1
Jul 14, 2024at CHWPIT 9 − 4
Jul 13, 2024at CHWPIT 6 − 2
Jul 12, 2024at CHWPIT 4 − 1
Apr 9, 2023at PITPIT 1 − 0
Apr 8, 2023at PITCHW 11 − 5
Apr 7, 2023at PITPIT 13 − 9
Sep 1, 2021at CHWCHW 6 − 3

PIT · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Sep 6vs LAA1 − 0W
Sep 5vs LAA1 − 6L
Sep 4vs LAA1 − 0W
Sep 3vs SF5 − 2W
Sep 2vs SF4 − 5L
Sep 1vs SF13 − 12W
Aug 30at STL5 − 4W
Aug 29at STL6 − 2W
Aug 28at STL1 − 4L
Aug 26at SD0 − 3L

CHW · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Sep 6vs MIN10 − 1W
Sep 5vs MIN4 − 6L
Sep 4vs MIN4 − 1W
Sep 3at HOU2 − 6L
Sep 2at HOU0 − 2L
Sep 1at HOU5 − 1W
Aug 31at HOU3 − 6L
Aug 30at MIN1 − 5L
Aug 29at MIN3 − 2W
Aug 28at MIN7 − 4W