bayesRatings

White Sox at Cardinals

MLB · Friday, Sep 11 · 7:15 PM CT · Busch Stadium · Final CHW 3 – STL 7
← MLB / Sep 11

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
CHW101000010390
STL111030107130
Team box
CHW·STL
9
hits
13
2
home runs
0
6
walks
2
7
strikeouts
5
142
pitches thrown
155
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Chase MeidrothCHW2-4222
Joshua BaezSTL3-4202
Leo BernalSTL3-4102
Alec BurlesonSTL2-4102
Randal GrichukCHW2-4000
Kyle TeelCHW2-2000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Anthony Kay (L)CHW4.05312
Matthew LiberatoreSTL4.16232
Gordon Graceffo (W)STL0.20011

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
STL +5
CHW +5
123456789
largest lead: STL 5 · CHW 1lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CHW 48%, STL 52% · Updated Sep 11

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
CHW 4.6 – 4.5 STL
Expected total
9.1
White SoxThe matchupCardinals
+107Our fair odds−107
4.6Expected runs4.5
−0.02Power rating−0.03
4.7Runs / game4.5
4.4Allowed / game4.6
7.9Hits / game8.2
1.30Home runs / game1.06
3.6Walks drawn / game3.2
75−71Season record72−75
3−7Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CHW chance · STL chance
Our model fair48.3%51.7%
Kalshi51.7%52.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 7:15 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CHWChicago White Sox+10748%−10751.8%———
STLSt. Louis Cardinals−10752%−11252.7%———
Spreadabout even
CHWChicago White Sox−0.2our margin————
STLSt. Louis Cardinals+0.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.1
Over9.1our total————
Under9.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Chicago White Sox by 13 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 12 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 11 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 10 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 9 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 8 runs: 2%Chicago White Sox by 7 runs: 2%Chicago White Sox by 6 runs: 3%Chicago White Sox by 5 runs: 4%Chicago White Sox by 4 runs: 6%Chicago White Sox by 3 runs: 7%Chicago White Sox by 2 runs: 10%Chicago White Sox by 1 run: 11%St. Louis Cardinals by 1 run: 17%St. Louis Cardinals by 2 runs: 9%St. Louis Cardinals by 3 runs: 7%St. Louis Cardinals by 4 runs: 5%St. Louis Cardinals by 5 runs: 4%St. Louis Cardinals by 6 runs: 3%St. Louis Cardinals by 7 runs: 2%St. Louis Cardinals by 8 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 9 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 10 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 11 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 12 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 13 runs: <1%
← CHW wins bySTL wins by →
Chicago White Sox wins by 2 or more38%
Chicago White Sox wins by 3 or more29%
St. Louis Cardinals wins by 2 or more34%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.1 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.559%
Total over 9.541%
Total over 11.526%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
CHWAnthony Kay SP · last 3 starts: 13.2 IP, 9.22 ERA, 12 Kstarted
STLMatthew Liberatore SP · last 3 starts: 14.0 IP, 10.29 ERA, 19 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CHW·STL
Sep 10 vs PIT
last game
Sep 9 at SF
0 days
days of rest
1 day
6
games in last 7 days
6
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 146+ games
CHW·STL
−0.02
rating (0 = average)
−0.03
4.7
runs / game
4.5
4.4
runs allowed / game
4.6
75−71
season record
72−75
43−31
home record
34−38
32−40
away record
38−37
L3
streak
L3
3−7
last 10
4−6
7.9
hits / game
8.2
1.30
home runs / game
1.06
3.6
walks drawn / game
3.2
9.2
batter strikeouts / game
7.9
8.3
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.9
0.50
errors / game
0.43

Rating Trend

CHW · STL · 167 days
Chicago White SoxSt. Louis Cardinals
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · STL 7−3
Jun 19, 2025at CHWSTL 8 − 6
Jun 19, 2025at CHWSTL 5 − 4
Jun 17, 2025at CHWSTL 12 − 2
May 5, 2024at STLCHW 5 − 1
May 4, 2024at STLCHW 6 − 5
May 3, 2024at STLSTL 3 − 0
Jul 9, 2023at CHWSTL 4 − 3
Jul 8, 2023at CHWSTL 3 − 0
Jul 7, 2023at CHWCHW 8 − 7
May 26, 2021at CHWSTL 4 − 0

CHW · Last 10

3−7 · streak L3
Sep 10vs PIT0 − 2L
Sep 9vs PIT2 − 4L
Sep 8vs PIT3 − 9L
Sep 6vs MIN10 − 1W
Sep 5vs MIN4 − 6L
Sep 4vs MIN4 − 1W
Sep 3at HOU2 − 6L
Sep 2at HOU0 − 2L
Sep 1at HOU5 − 1W
Aug 31at HOU3 − 6L

STL · Last 10

4−6 · streak L3
Sep 9at SF6 − 7L
Sep 8at SF1 − 2L
Sep 7at SF4 − 5L
Sep 6at COL10 − 8W
Sep 5at COL7 − 10L
Sep 4at COL7 − 6W
Sep 3at LAD2 − 3L
Sep 2at LAD8 − 6W
Sep 1at LAD13 − 8W
Aug 30vs PIT4 − 5L