bayesRatings

Cardinals at Dodgers

MLB · Thursday, Sep 3 · 9:10 PM CT · Dodger Stadium · Final STL 2 – LAD 3
← MLB / Sep 3

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
STL1010000002120
LAD000010002360
Team box
STL·LAD
12
hits
6
0
home runs
0
1
walks
8
10
strikeouts
8
170
pitches thrown
155
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Teoscar HernandezLAD2-3002
Tommy EdmanLAD4-5200
Ramon UriasSTL1-4001
Ivan HerreraSTL2-5100
Jordan WalkerSTL2-4000
Joshua BaezSTL1-3001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Quinn MathewsSTL5.04144
Riley O'Brien (L)STL0.12210
Tarik SkubalLAD5.210216
Brock Stewart (W)LAD0.20000

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
LAD +3
STL +3
123456789
largest lead: LAD 1 · STL 2lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was STL 41%, LAD 59% · Updated Sep 3

Expected margin
LAD by 1.1
Expected score
LAD 5.1 – 4.0 STL
Expected total
9.1
CardinalsThe matchupDodgers
+142Our fair odds−142
4.0Expected runs5.1
−0.01Power rating+0.27
4.5Runs / game4.9
4.6Allowed / game3.9
8.1Hits / game8.7
1.07Home runs / game1.23
3.2Walks drawn / game3.7
70−70Season record82−57
4−6Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
STL chance · LAD chance
Our model fair41.4%58.6%
Kalshi29.4%74.4%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 9:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
STLSt. Louis Cardinals+14241%+24029.4%———
LADLos Angeles Dodgers−14259%−29074.4%———
SpreadLAD by 1.1
STLSt. Louis Cardinals+1.1our margin————
LADLos Angeles Dodgers−1.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.1
Over9.1our total————
Under9.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Los Angeles Dodgers by 1.1 expected
St. Louis Cardinals by 15 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 14 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 13 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 12 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 11 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 10 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 9 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 8 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 7 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 6 runs: 2%St. Louis Cardinals by 5 runs: 3%St. Louis Cardinals by 4 runs: 4%St. Louis Cardinals by 3 runs: 6%St. Louis Cardinals by 2 runs: 8%St. Louis Cardinals by 1 run: 14%Los Angeles Dodgers by 1 run: 13%Los Angeles Dodgers by 2 runs: 11%Los Angeles Dodgers by 3 runs: 8%Los Angeles Dodgers by 4 runs: 7%Los Angeles Dodgers by 5 runs: 5%Los Angeles Dodgers by 6 runs: 4%Los Angeles Dodgers by 7 runs: 3%Los Angeles Dodgers by 8 runs: 2%Los Angeles Dodgers by 9 runs: 2%Los Angeles Dodgers by 10 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 11 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 12 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 13 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 14 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 15 runs: <1%
← STL wins byLAD wins by →
Los Angeles Dodgers wins by 2 or more46%
Los Angeles Dodgers wins by 3 or more35%
St. Louis Cardinals wins by 2 or more27%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.1 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.558%
Total over 9.541%
Total over 11.526%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
STLQuinn Mathews SP · last 3 starts: 14.2 IP, 5.52 ERA, 17 Kstarted
LADTarik Skubal SP · last 3 starts: 19.0 IP, 2.37 ERA, 25 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
STL·LAD
Sep 2 at LAD
last game
Sep 2 vs STL
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
3rd straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 139+ games
STL·LAD
−0.01
rating (0 = average)
+0.27
4.5
runs / game
4.9
4.6
runs allowed / game
3.9
70−70
season record
82−57
34−38
home record
40−28
36−32
away record
42−29
W2
streak
L2
4−6
last 10
4−6
8.1
hits / game
8.7
1.07
home runs / game
1.23
3.2
walks drawn / game
3.7
7.9
batter strikeouts / game
7.9
7.9
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.1
0.41
errors / game
0.39

Rating Trend

STL · LAD · 159 days
St. Louis CardinalsLos Angeles Dodgers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · LAD 3−7
Sep 2at LADSTL 8 − 6
Sep 1at LADSTL 13 − 8
May 3at STLLAD 4 − 1
May 2at STLSTL 3 − 2
May 1at STLSTL 7 − 2
Aug 6, 2025at LADSTL 5 − 3
Aug 5, 2025at LADLAD 12 − 6
Aug 4, 2025at LADSTL 3 − 2
Jun 8, 2025at STLLAD 7 − 3
Jun 7, 2025at STLSTL 2 − 1

STL · Last 10

4−6 · streak W2
Sep 2at LAD8 − 6W
Sep 1at LAD13 − 8W
Aug 30vs PIT4 − 5L
Aug 29vs PIT2 − 6L
Aug 28vs PIT4 − 1W
Aug 27vs BAL7 − 5W
Aug 26vs BAL7 − 8L
Aug 25vs BAL1 − 13L
Aug 23at PHI4 − 6L
Aug 22at PHI3 − 12L

LAD · Last 10

4−6 · streak L2
Sep 2vs STL6 − 8L
Sep 1vs STL8 − 13L
Aug 30at DET6 − 1W
Aug 29at DET1 − 2L
Aug 28at DET2 − 1W
Aug 27at ATL0 − 1L
Aug 26at ATL5 − 6L
Aug 25at ATL3 − 4L
Aug 23vs PIT4 − 0W
Aug 22vs PIT4 − 3W