bayesRatings

Cardinals at Dodgers

MLB · Wednesday, Sep 2 · 9:10 PM CT · Dodger Stadium · Final STL 8 – LAD 6
← MLB / Sep 2

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team12345678910THE
STL0000022103890
LAD30000200016110
Team box
STL·LAD
9
hits
11
2
home runs
2
2
walks
6
9
strikeouts
13
189
pitches thrown
138
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Freddie FreemanLAD2-2113
Thomas SaggeseSTL2-4213
Mookie BettsLAD2-6112
Leo BernalSTL1-4112
Joshua BaezSTL2-2102
Teoscar HernandezLAD3-5000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Brycen MautzSTL1.02330
Justin Bruihl (W)STL1.01001
Riley O'Brien (S)STL1.00001
Yoshinobu YamamotoLAD7.05428
Brock Stewart (L)LAD1.03201

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
LAD +3
STL +3
12345678910
largest lead: LAD 3 · STL 3lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was STL 41%, LAD 59% · Updated Sep 2

Expected margin
LAD by 1.1
Expected score
LAD 5.0 – 4.0 STL
Expected total
9.0
CardinalsThe matchupDodgers
+146Our fair odds−146
4.0Expected runs5.0
−0.02Power rating+0.28
4.5Runs / game4.9
4.6Allowed / game3.8
8.1Hits / game8.7
1.06Home runs / game1.22
3.2Walks drawn / game3.7
69−70Season record82−56
3−7Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
STL chance · LAD chance
Our model fair40.6%59.4%
Kalshi29.4%74.4%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 9:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
STLSt. Louis Cardinals+14641%+24029.4%———
LADLos Angeles Dodgers−14659%−29074.4%———
SpreadLAD by 1.1
STLSt. Louis Cardinals+1.1our margin————
LADLos Angeles Dodgers−1.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.0
Over9.0our total————
Under9.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Los Angeles Dodgers by 1.1 expected
St. Louis Cardinals by 15 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 14 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 13 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 12 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 11 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 10 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 9 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 8 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 7 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 6 runs: 2%St. Louis Cardinals by 5 runs: 3%St. Louis Cardinals by 4 runs: 4%St. Louis Cardinals by 3 runs: 6%St. Louis Cardinals by 2 runs: 8%St. Louis Cardinals by 1 run: 13%Los Angeles Dodgers by 1 run: 14%Los Angeles Dodgers by 2 runs: 11%Los Angeles Dodgers by 3 runs: 8%Los Angeles Dodgers by 4 runs: 7%Los Angeles Dodgers by 5 runs: 5%Los Angeles Dodgers by 6 runs: 4%Los Angeles Dodgers by 7 runs: 3%Los Angeles Dodgers by 8 runs: 2%Los Angeles Dodgers by 9 runs: 2%Los Angeles Dodgers by 10 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 11 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 12 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 13 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 14 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 15 runs: <1%
← STL wins byLAD wins by →
Los Angeles Dodgers wins by 2 or more45%
Los Angeles Dodgers wins by 3 or more35%
St. Louis Cardinals wins by 2 or more27%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.0 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.558%
Total over 9.540%
Total over 11.525%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
STLBrycen Mautz RP · no recent starts on recordstarted
LADYoshinobu Yamamoto SP · last 3 starts: 18.2 IP, 1.93 ERA, 26 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
STL·LAD
Sep 1 at LAD
last game
Sep 1 vs STL
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
2nd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 138+ games
STL·LAD
−0.02
rating (0 = average)
+0.28
4.5
runs / game
4.9
4.6
runs allowed / game
3.8
69−70
season record
82−56
34−38
home record
40−27
35−32
away record
42−29
W1
streak
L1
3−7
last 10
5−5
8.1
hits / game
8.7
1.06
home runs / game
1.22
3.2
walks drawn / game
3.7
7.8
batter strikeouts / game
7.8
7.9
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.1
0.42
errors / game
0.39

Rating Trend

STL · LAD · 158 days
St. Louis CardinalsLos Angeles Dodgers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · LAD 3−7
Sep 1at LADSTL 13 − 8
May 3at STLLAD 4 − 1
May 2at STLSTL 3 − 2
May 1at STLSTL 7 − 2
Aug 6, 2025at LADSTL 5 − 3
Aug 5, 2025at LADLAD 12 − 6
Aug 4, 2025at LADSTL 3 − 2
Jun 8, 2025at STLLAD 7 − 3
Jun 7, 2025at STLSTL 2 − 1
Jun 6, 2025at STLSTL 5 − 0

STL · Last 10

3−7 · streak W1
Sep 1at LAD13 − 8W
Aug 30vs PIT4 − 5L
Aug 29vs PIT2 − 6L
Aug 28vs PIT4 − 1W
Aug 27vs BAL7 − 5W
Aug 26vs BAL7 − 8L
Aug 25vs BAL1 − 13L
Aug 23at PHI4 − 6L
Aug 22at PHI3 − 12L
Aug 21at PHI6 − 7L

LAD · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Sep 1vs STL8 − 13L
Aug 30at DET6 − 1W
Aug 29at DET1 − 2L
Aug 28at DET2 − 1W
Aug 27at ATL0 − 1L
Aug 26at ATL5 − 6L
Aug 25at ATL3 − 4L
Aug 23vs PIT4 − 0W
Aug 22vs PIT4 − 3W
Aug 21vs PIT5 − 4W