bayesRatings

Cardinals at Dodgers

MLB · Tuesday, Sep 1 · 9:10 PM CT · Dodger Stadium · Final STL 13 – LAD 8
← MLB / Sep 1

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
STL02521012013131
LAD003010103891
Team box
STL·LAD
13
hits
9
5
home runs
0
3
walks
6
10
strikeouts
7
174
pitches thrown
159
1
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Thomas SaggeseSTL2-3323
Jordan WalkerSTL3-5212
Mookie BettsLAD2-3104
Tommy EdmanLAD3-5101
Ramon UriasSTL1-2111
Joshua BaezSTL1-3211
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Michael McGreevy (W)STL5.05424
Eric Lauer (L)LAD3.08712

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
LAD +8
STL +8
123456789
largest lead: LAD 0 · STL 8lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was STL 40%, LAD 60% · Updated Sep 1

Expected margin
LAD by 1.2
Expected score
LAD 5.0 – 3.9 STL
Expected total
8.9
CardinalsThe matchupDodgers
+149Our fair odds−149
3.9Expected runs5.0
−0.03Power rating+0.29
4.4Runs / game4.9
4.5Allowed / game3.8
8.1Hits / game8.7
1.04Home runs / game1.23
3.2Walks drawn / game3.7
68−70Season record82−55
3−7Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
STL chance · LAD chance
Our model fair40.1%59.9%
Kalshi37.6%66.6%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 9:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
STLSt. Louis Cardinals+14940%+16637.6%———
LADLos Angeles Dodgers−14960%−19966.6%———
SpreadLAD by 1.2
STLSt. Louis Cardinals+1.2our margin————
LADLos Angeles Dodgers−1.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.9
Over8.9our total————
Under8.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Los Angeles Dodgers by 1.2 expected
St. Louis Cardinals by 15 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 14 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 13 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 12 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 11 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 10 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 9 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 8 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 7 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 6 runs: 2%St. Louis Cardinals by 5 runs: 3%St. Louis Cardinals by 4 runs: 4%St. Louis Cardinals by 3 runs: 6%St. Louis Cardinals by 2 runs: 8%St. Louis Cardinals by 1 run: 14%Los Angeles Dodgers by 1 run: 14%Los Angeles Dodgers by 2 runs: 11%Los Angeles Dodgers by 3 runs: 8%Los Angeles Dodgers by 4 runs: 7%Los Angeles Dodgers by 5 runs: 5%Los Angeles Dodgers by 6 runs: 4%Los Angeles Dodgers by 7 runs: 3%Los Angeles Dodgers by 8 runs: 2%Los Angeles Dodgers by 9 runs: 2%Los Angeles Dodgers by 10 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 11 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 12 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 13 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 14 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 15 runs: <1%
← STL wins byLAD wins by →
Los Angeles Dodgers wins by 2 or more46%
Los Angeles Dodgers wins by 3 or more36%
St. Louis Cardinals wins by 2 or more26%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.9 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.568%
Total over 8.549%
Total over 10.532%
Total from 7 to 1036%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
STLMichael McGreevy SP · last 3 starts: 16.1 IP, 5.51 ERA, 13 Kstarted
LADEric Lauer SP · last 3 starts: 15.1 IP, 6.46 ERA, 13 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
STL·LAD
Aug 30 vs PIT
last game
Aug 30 at DET
1 day
days of rest
1 day
6
games in last 7 days
6
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 137+ games
STL·LAD
−0.03
rating (0 = average)
+0.29
4.4
runs / game
4.9
4.5
runs allowed / game
3.8
68−70
season record
82−55
34−38
home record
40−26
34−32
away record
42−29
L2
streak
W1
3−7
last 10
6−4
8.1
hits / game
8.7
1.04
home runs / game
1.23
3.2
walks drawn / game
3.7
7.8
batter strikeouts / game
7.9
7.9
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.1
0.41
errors / game
0.39

Rating Trend

STL · LAD · 157 days
St. Louis CardinalsLos Angeles Dodgers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · LAD 4−6
May 3at STLLAD 4 − 1
May 2at STLSTL 3 − 2
May 1at STLSTL 7 − 2
Aug 6, 2025at LADSTL 5 − 3
Aug 5, 2025at LADLAD 12 − 6
Aug 4, 2025at LADSTL 3 − 2
Jun 8, 2025at STLLAD 7 − 3
Jun 7, 2025at STLSTL 2 − 1
Jun 6, 2025at STLSTL 5 − 0
Aug 18, 2024at STLLAD 2 − 1

STL · Last 10

3−7 · streak L2
Aug 30vs PIT4 − 5L
Aug 29vs PIT2 − 6L
Aug 28vs PIT4 − 1W
Aug 27vs BAL7 − 5W
Aug 26vs BAL7 − 8L
Aug 25vs BAL1 − 13L
Aug 23at PHI4 − 6L
Aug 22at PHI3 − 12L
Aug 21at PHI6 − 7L
Aug 20at CIN10 − 9W

LAD · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Aug 30at DET6 − 1W
Aug 29at DET1 − 2L
Aug 28at DET2 − 1W
Aug 27at ATL0 − 1L
Aug 26at ATL5 − 6L
Aug 25at ATL3 − 4L
Aug 23vs PIT4 − 0W
Aug 22vs PIT4 − 3W
Aug 21vs PIT5 − 4W
Aug 19at COL6 − 4W