bayesRatings

Cardinals at Rockies

MLB · Saturday, Sep 5 · 7:10 PM CT · Coors Field · Final STL 7 – COL 10
← MLB / Sep 5

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
STL0100220027132
COL0000604010110
Team box
STL·COL
13
hits
11
2
home runs
0
2
walks
4
12
strikeouts
6
152
pitches thrown
148
2
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Ivan HerreraSTL2-5113
Joshua BaezSTL2-4211
Hunter GoodmanCOL1-5102
Adael AmadorCOL2-4101
Cole CarriggCOL2-4101
Thomas SaggeseSTL2-2101
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Matthew Liberatore (L)STL4.14523
Mason AdamsCOL4.28317
Brennan Bernardino (W)COL0.20000
Jordan Romano (S)COL0.20001

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
COL +5
STL +5
123456789
largest lead: COL 5 · STL 3lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was STL 59%, COL 41% · Updated Sep 5

Expected margin
STL by 1.3
Expected score
STL 6.2 – 4.9 COL
Expected total
11.2
CardinalsThe matchupRockies
−146Our fair odds+146
6.2Expected runs4.9
−0.01Power rating−0.47
4.5Runs / game4.7
4.6Allowed / game5.7
8.1Hits / game8.6
1.06Home runs / game1.11
3.2Walks drawn / game3.2
71−71Season record54−87
5−5Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
STL chance · COL chance
Our model fair59.4%40.6%
Kalshi55.7%48.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 7:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
STLSt. Louis Cardinals−14659%−12655.7%———
COLColorado Rockies+14641%+10548.7%———
SpreadSTL by 1.3
STLSt. Louis Cardinals−1.3our margin————
COLColorado Rockies+1.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 11.2
Over11.2our total————
Under11.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

St. Louis Cardinals by 1.3 expected
St. Louis Cardinals by 17 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 16 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 15 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 14 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 13 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 12 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 11 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 10 runs: 2%St. Louis Cardinals by 9 runs: 2%St. Louis Cardinals by 8 runs: 3%St. Louis Cardinals by 7 runs: 4%St. Louis Cardinals by 6 runs: 4%St. Louis Cardinals by 5 runs: 5%St. Louis Cardinals by 4 runs: 6%St. Louis Cardinals by 3 runs: 7%St. Louis Cardinals by 2 runs: 9%St. Louis Cardinals by 1 run: 12%Colorado Rockies by 1 run: 11%Colorado Rockies by 2 runs: 8%Colorado Rockies by 3 runs: 6%Colorado Rockies by 4 runs: 4%Colorado Rockies by 5 runs: 3%Colorado Rockies by 6 runs: 3%Colorado Rockies by 7 runs: 2%Colorado Rockies by 8 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 9 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 10 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 11 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 12 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 13 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 14 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 15 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 16 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 17 runs: <1%
← STL wins byCOL wins by →
St. Louis Cardinals wins by 2 or more48%
St. Louis Cardinals wins by 3 or more38%
Colorado Rockies wins by 2 or more29%
Decided by one run23%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

11.2 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 3%4 runs: 3%5 runs: 6%6 runs: 5%7 runs: 9%8 runs: 6%9 runs: 9%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 9%12 runs: 6%13 runs: 7%14 runs: 5%15 runs: 5%16 runs: 3%17 runs: 4%18 runs: 2%19 runs: 2%20 runs: 2%21 runs: 1%22 runs: 1%23 runs: 1%24 runs: 1%25 runs: 1%26 runs: <1%27 runs: <1%28 runs: <1%29 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 9.557%
Total over 11.542%
Total over 13.529%
Total from 10 to 1328%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
STLMatthew Liberatore SP · last 3 starts: 15.2 IP, 8.04 ERA, 25 Kstarted
COLMason Adams SP · last 2 starts: 9.0 IP, 3.00 ERA, 10 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
STL·COL
Sep 4 at COL
last game
Sep 4 vs STL
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
5th straight road game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 141+ games
STL·COL
−0.01
rating (0 = average)
−0.47
4.5
runs / game
4.7
4.6
runs allowed / game
5.7
71−71
season record
54−87
34−38
home record
29−40
37−33
away record
25−47
W1
streak
L1
5−5
last 10
4−6
8.1
hits / game
8.6
1.06
home runs / game
1.11
3.2
walks drawn / game
3.2
7.9
batter strikeouts / game
8.7
7.9
pitcher strikeouts / game
6.8
0.42
errors / game
0.65

Rating Trend

STL · COL · 161 days
St. Louis CardinalsColorado Rockies
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · COL 5−5
Sep 4at COLSTL 7 − 6
Aug 9at STLSTL 7 − 4
Aug 8at STLCOL 8 − 6
Aug 7at STLSTL 3 − 2
Aug 13, 2025at STLCOL 6 − 5
Aug 12, 2025at STLCOL 3 − 0
Aug 11, 2025at STLSTL 3 − 2
Jul 23, 2025at COLCOL 6 − 0
Jul 22, 2025at COLCOL 8 − 4
Jul 21, 2025at COLSTL 6 − 2

STL · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Sep 4at COL7 − 6W
Sep 3at LAD2 − 3L
Sep 2at LAD8 − 6W
Sep 1at LAD13 − 8W
Aug 30vs PIT4 − 5L
Aug 29vs PIT2 − 6L
Aug 28vs PIT4 − 1W
Aug 27vs BAL7 − 5W
Aug 26vs BAL7 − 8L
Aug 25vs BAL1 − 13L

COL · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
Sep 4vs STL6 − 7L
Sep 2vs BAL6 − 5W
Sep 1vs BAL4 − 2W
Aug 31vs BAL1 − 2L
Aug 30at ATL2 − 3L
Aug 29at ATL1 − 2L
Aug 28at ATL4 − 6L
Aug 27at WSH1 − 7L
Aug 26at WSH13 − 1W
Aug 25at WSH3 − 1W