bayesRatings

Cardinals at Giants

MLB · Monday, Sep 7 · 7:10 PM CT · Oracle Park · Final STL 4 – SF 5
← MLB / Sep 7

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234567891011THE
STL00000110110491
SF101010000115100
Team box
STL·SF
9
hits
10
1
home runs
0
5
walks
5
11
strikeouts
6
164
pitches thrown
191
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Bryce EldridgeSF2-4003
Alec BurlesonSTL1-5211
Rafael DeversSF2-3101
Shay WhitcombSF2-5001
Nathan ChurchSTL1-5001
Thomas SaggeseSTL2-5000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Michael McGreevySTL6.26224
George Soriano (L)STL0.11000
Logan WebbSF6.03128
Jason Foley (W)SF2.01010

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
SF +3
STL +3
1234567891011
largest lead: SF 3 · STL 1lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was STL 51%, SF 49% · Updated Sep 7

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
STL 4.6 – 4.4 SF
Expected total
9.0
CardinalsThe matchupGiants
−106Our fair odds+106
4.6Expected runs4.4
−0.02Power rating−0.15
4.6Runs / game4.2
4.6Allowed / game4.7
8.2Hits / game8.4
1.07Home runs / game1.14
3.2Walks drawn / game2.8
72−72Season record59−85
6−4Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
STL chance · SF chance
Our model fair51.4%48.6%
Kalshi47.7%56.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 7:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
STLSt. Louis Cardinals−10651%+10947.7%———
SFSan Francisco Giants+10649%−13156.7%———
Spreadabout even
STLSt. Louis Cardinals−0.2our margin————
SFSan Francisco Giants+0.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.0
Over9.0our total————
Under9.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
St. Louis Cardinals by 13 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 12 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 11 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 10 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 9 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 8 runs: 2%St. Louis Cardinals by 7 runs: 2%St. Louis Cardinals by 6 runs: 3%St. Louis Cardinals by 5 runs: 4%St. Louis Cardinals by 4 runs: 6%St. Louis Cardinals by 3 runs: 7%St. Louis Cardinals by 2 runs: 10%St. Louis Cardinals by 1 run: 14%San Francisco Giants by 1 run: 14%San Francisco Giants by 2 runs: 9%San Francisco Giants by 3 runs: 7%San Francisco Giants by 4 runs: 5%San Francisco Giants by 5 runs: 4%San Francisco Giants by 6 runs: 3%San Francisco Giants by 7 runs: 2%San Francisco Giants by 8 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 9 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 10 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 11 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 12 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 13 runs: <1%
← STL wins bySF wins by →
St. Louis Cardinals wins by 2 or more38%
St. Louis Cardinals wins by 3 or more28%
San Francisco Giants wins by 2 or more34%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.0 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.558%
Total over 9.540%
Total over 11.525%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
STLMichael McGreevy SP · last 3 starts: 15.1 IP, 8.22 ERA, 11 Kstarted
SFLogan Webb SP · last 3 starts: 10.2 IP, 13.50 ERA, 9 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
STL·SF
Sep 6 at COL
last game
Sep 6 at NYM
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
7
7th straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 144+ games
STL·SF
−0.02
rating (0 = average)
−0.15
4.6
runs / game
4.2
4.6
runs allowed / game
4.7
72−72
season record
59−85
34−38
home record
33−36
38−34
away record
26−49
W1
streak
L1
6−4
last 10
4−6
8.2
hits / game
8.4
1.07
home runs / game
1.14
3.2
walks drawn / game
2.8
7.9
batter strikeouts / game
8.0
7.9
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.5
0.43
errors / game
0.65

Rating Trend

STL · SF · 163 days
St. Louis CardinalsSan Francisco Giants
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · SF 3−7
Sep 24, 2025at SFSF 4 − 3
Sep 23, 2025at SFSTL 9 − 8
Sep 22, 2025at SFSTL 6 − 5
Sep 7, 2025at STLSTL 4 − 3
Sep 6, 2025at STLSTL 3 − 2
Sep 5, 2025at STLSF 8 − 2
Sep 29, 2024at SFSTL 6 − 1
Sep 28, 2024at SFSF 6 − 5
Sep 27, 2024at SFSTL 6 − 3
Jun 23, 2024at STLSTL 5 − 3

STL · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Sep 6at COL10 − 8W
Sep 5at COL7 − 10L
Sep 4at COL7 − 6W
Sep 3at LAD2 − 3L
Sep 2at LAD8 − 6W
Sep 1at LAD13 − 8W
Aug 30vs PIT4 − 5L
Aug 29vs PIT2 − 6L
Aug 28vs PIT4 − 1W
Aug 27vs BAL7 − 5W

SF · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
Sep 6at NYM2 − 4L
Sep 5at NYM9 − 5W
Sep 4at NYM6 − 10L
Sep 3at PIT2 − 5L
Sep 2at PIT5 − 4W
Sep 1at PIT12 − 13L
Aug 31at ATL7 − 3W
Aug 29vs ARI7 − 2W
Aug 29vs ARI1 − 7L
Aug 28vs ARI6 − 10L