bayesRatings

Giants at Mets

MLB · Saturday, Sep 5 · 3:10 PM CT · Citi Field · Final SF 9 – NYM 5
← MLB / Sep 5

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
SF1020300219101
NYM020000102550
Team box
SF·NYM
10
hits
5
6
home runs
1
2
walks
4
8
strikeouts
9
161
pitches thrown
142
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Rafael DeversSF2-4223
Christian KossSF2-4223
A.J. EwingNYM1-2212
Osleivis BasabeSF1-4112
Grant McCraySF2-4211
Brett BatyNYM1-3003
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Anthony Molina (W)SF5.01016
Zac Thornton (L)NYM5.07616

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
NYM +6
SF +6
123456789
largest lead: NYM 1 · SF 6lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SF 45%, NYM 55% · Updated Sep 5

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
NYM 4.5 – 4.1 SF
Expected total
8.7
GiantsThe matchupMets
+122Our fair odds−122
4.1Expected runs4.5
−0.15Power rating−0.03
4.2Runs / game4.2
4.7Allowed / game4.5
8.4Hits / game7.9
1.11Home runs / game1.23
2.8Walks drawn / game3.2
58−84Season record64−77
4−6Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SF chance · NYM chance
Our model fair45.1%54.9%
Kalshi41.7%62.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 3:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SFSan Francisco Giants+12245%+14041.7%———
NYMNew York Mets−12255%−16862.7%———
Spreadabout even
SFSan Francisco Giants+0.4our margin————
NYMNew York Mets−0.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.7
Over8.7our total————
Under8.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
San Francisco Giants by 13 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 12 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 11 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 10 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 9 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 8 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 7 runs: 2%San Francisco Giants by 6 runs: 3%San Francisco Giants by 5 runs: 4%San Francisco Giants by 4 runs: 5%San Francisco Giants by 3 runs: 7%San Francisco Giants by 2 runs: 9%San Francisco Giants by 1 run: 12%New York Mets by 1 run: 16%New York Mets by 2 runs: 10%New York Mets by 3 runs: 8%New York Mets by 4 runs: 6%New York Mets by 5 runs: 5%New York Mets by 6 runs: 3%New York Mets by 7 runs: 2%New York Mets by 8 runs: 2%New York Mets by 9 runs: 1%New York Mets by 10 runs: 1%New York Mets by 11 runs: 1%New York Mets by 12 runs: <1%New York Mets by 13 runs: <1%
← SF wins byNYM wins by →
New York Mets wins by 2 or more39%
New York Mets wins by 3 or more29%
San Francisco Giants wins by 2 or more33%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.7 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.567%
Total over 8.547%
Total over 10.530%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
SFAnthony Molina SP · last 3 starts: 11.2 IP, 10.03 ERA, 8 Kstarted
NYMZac Thornton SP · last 3 starts: 16.0 IP, 3.38 ERA, 16 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SF·NYM
Sep 4 at NYM
last game
Sep 4 vs SF
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
6
6th straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 141+ games
SF·NYM
−0.15
rating (0 = average)
−0.03
4.2
runs / game
4.2
4.7
runs allowed / game
4.5
58−84
season record
64−77
33−36
home record
33−39
25−48
away record
31−38
L2
streak
W2
4−6
last 10
5−5
8.4
hits / game
7.9
1.11
home runs / game
1.23
2.8
walks drawn / game
3.2
8.0
batter strikeouts / game
8.5
7.5
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.9
0.65
errors / game
0.61

Rating Trend

SF · NYM · 161 days
San Francisco GiantsNew York Mets
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · NYM 7−3
Sep 4at NYMNYM 10 − 6
Apr 5at SFNYM 5 − 2
Apr 4at SFNYM 9 − 0
Apr 3at SFNYM 10 − 3
Apr 2at SFSF 7 − 2
Aug 3, 2025at NYMSF 12 − 4
Aug 2, 2025at NYMNYM 12 − 6
Aug 1, 2025at NYMSF 4 − 3
Jul 27, 2025at SFNYM 5 − 3
Jul 26, 2025at SFNYM 2 − 1

SF · Last 10

4−6 · streak L2
Sep 4at NYM6 − 10L
Sep 3at PIT2 − 5L
Sep 2at PIT5 − 4W
Sep 1at PIT12 − 13L
Aug 31at ATL7 − 3W
Aug 29vs ARI7 − 2W
Aug 29vs ARI1 − 7L
Aug 28vs ARI6 − 10L
Aug 27vs ARI6 − 1W
Aug 26vs CIN9 − 10L

NYM · Last 10

5−5 · streak W2
Sep 4vs SF10 − 6W
Sep 2at TB10 − 4W
Sep 1at TB2 − 6L
Aug 31at TB3 − 2W
Aug 30vs HOU3 − 6L
Aug 29vs HOU6 − 2W
Aug 28vs HOU1 − 3L
Aug 27vs MIL2 − 8L
Aug 26vs MIL1 − 8L
Aug 25vs MIL3 − 2W