bayesRatings

Giants at Mets

MLB · Friday, Sep 4 · 6:10 PM CT · Citi Field · Final SF 6 – NYM 10
← MLB / Sep 4

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
SF0020001306121
NYM340002011090
Team box
SF·NYM
12
hits
9
1
home runs
5
6
walks
4
11
strikeouts
4
124
pitches thrown
173
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Rafael DeversSF3-4115
Francisco AlvarezNYM2-4222
Mark VientosNYM2-4113
Francisco LindorNYM2-5212
Bo BichetteNYM2-3212
Turner HillSF2-4001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Matt Wilkinson (L)SF3.05422
Nolan McLean (W)NYM6.06247

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
NYM +7
SF +7
123456789
largest lead: NYM 7 · SF 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SF 45%, NYM 55% · Updated Sep 4

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
NYM 4.5 – 4.1 SF
Expected total
8.6
GiantsThe matchupMets
+120Our fair odds−120
4.1Expected runs4.5
−0.14Power rating−0.03
4.2Runs / game4.1
4.7Allowed / game4.5
8.4Hits / game7.9
1.11Home runs / game1.20
2.8Walks drawn / game3.2
58−83Season record63−77
5−5Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SF chance · NYM chance
Our model fair45.4%54.6%
Kalshi36.6%67.6%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SFSan Francisco Giants+12045%+17336.6%———
NYMNew York Mets−12055%−20867.6%———
Spreadabout even
SFSan Francisco Giants+0.3our margin————
NYMNew York Mets−0.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.6
Over8.6our total————
Under8.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
San Francisco Giants by 13 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 12 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 11 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 10 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 9 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 8 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 7 runs: 2%San Francisco Giants by 6 runs: 3%San Francisco Giants by 5 runs: 4%San Francisco Giants by 4 runs: 5%San Francisco Giants by 3 runs: 7%San Francisco Giants by 2 runs: 10%San Francisco Giants by 1 run: 12%New York Mets by 1 run: 17%New York Mets by 2 runs: 10%New York Mets by 3 runs: 7%New York Mets by 4 runs: 6%New York Mets by 5 runs: 4%New York Mets by 6 runs: 3%New York Mets by 7 runs: 2%New York Mets by 8 runs: 2%New York Mets by 9 runs: 1%New York Mets by 10 runs: 1%New York Mets by 11 runs: <1%New York Mets by 12 runs: <1%New York Mets by 13 runs: <1%
← SF wins byNYM wins by →
New York Mets wins by 2 or more38%
New York Mets wins by 3 or more28%
San Francisco Giants wins by 2 or more33%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.6 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.566%
Total over 8.546%
Total over 10.530%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
SFMatt Wilkinson SP · last 3 starts: 11.2 IP, 4.63 ERA, 6 Kstarted
NYMNolan McLean SP · last 3 starts: 19.0 IP, 0.47 ERA, 13 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SF·NYM
Sep 3 at PIT
last game
Sep 2 at TB
0 days
days of rest
1 day
7
games in last 7 days
6
5th straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 140+ games
SF·NYM
−0.14
rating (0 = average)
−0.03
4.2
runs / game
4.1
4.7
runs allowed / game
4.5
58−83
season record
63−77
33−36
home record
32−39
25−47
away record
31−38
L1
streak
W1
5−5
last 10
4−6
8.4
hits / game
7.9
1.11
home runs / game
1.20
2.8
walks drawn / game
3.2
8.0
batter strikeouts / game
8.5
7.5
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.9
0.65
errors / game
0.61

Rating Trend

SF · NYM · 160 days
San Francisco GiantsNew York Mets
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · NYM 7−3
Apr 5at SFNYM 5 − 2
Apr 4at SFNYM 9 − 0
Apr 3at SFNYM 10 − 3
Apr 2at SFSF 7 − 2
Aug 3, 2025at NYMSF 12 − 4
Aug 2, 2025at NYMNYM 12 − 6
Aug 1, 2025at NYMSF 4 − 3
Jul 27, 2025at SFNYM 5 − 3
Jul 26, 2025at SFNYM 2 − 1
Jul 25, 2025at SFNYM 8 − 1

SF · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Sep 3at PIT2 − 5L
Sep 2at PIT5 − 4W
Sep 1at PIT12 − 13L
Aug 31at ATL7 − 3W
Aug 29vs ARI7 − 2W
Aug 29vs ARI1 − 7L
Aug 28vs ARI6 − 10L
Aug 27vs ARI6 − 1W
Aug 26vs CIN9 − 10L
Aug 25vs CIN3 − 1W

NYM · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Sep 2at TB10 − 4W
Sep 1at TB2 − 6L
Aug 31at TB3 − 2W
Aug 30vs HOU3 − 6L
Aug 29vs HOU6 − 2W
Aug 28vs HOU1 − 3L
Aug 27vs MIL2 − 8L
Aug 26vs MIL1 − 8L
Aug 25vs MIL3 − 2W
Aug 23at CHW1 − 2L