bayesRatings

Giants at Mets

MLB · Sunday, Sep 6 · 12:40 PM CT · Citi Field · Final SF 2 – NYM 4
← MLB / Sep 6

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
SF000200000250
NYM00000004471
Team box
SF·NYM
5
hits
7
0
home runs
2
0
walks
2
12
strikeouts
4
119
pitches thrown
144
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Bo BichetteNYM1-4113
Brett BatyNYM1-1111
Jung Hoo LeeSF1-4002
A.J. EwingNYM2-3100
Marcus SemienNYM1-3000
Juan SotoNYM1-3100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Cesar PerdomoSF6.03014
Carson Seymour (L)SF1.03410
Christian ScottNYM4.24207
Tobias Myers (W)NYM1.01002
Kodai Senga (S)NYM1.00001

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
NYM +3
SF +3
123456789
largest lead: NYM 2 · SF 2lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SF 46%, NYM 54% · Updated Sep 6

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
NYM 4.6 – 4.2 SF
Expected total
8.8
GiantsThe matchupMets
+119Our fair odds−119
4.2Expected runs4.6
−0.14Power rating−0.04
4.2Runs / game4.2
4.7Allowed / game4.5
8.4Hits / game7.9
1.15Home runs / game1.23
2.8Walks drawn / game3.2
59−84Season record64−78
5−5Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SF chance · NYM chance
Our model fair45.7%54.3%
Kalshi41.7%62.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 12:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SFSan Francisco Giants+11946%+14041.7%———
NYMNew York Mets−11954%−16862.7%———
Spreadabout even
SFSan Francisco Giants+0.3our margin————
NYMNew York Mets−0.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.8
Over8.8our total————
Under8.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
San Francisco Giants by 13 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 12 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 11 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 10 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 9 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 8 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 7 runs: 2%San Francisco Giants by 6 runs: 3%San Francisco Giants by 5 runs: 4%San Francisco Giants by 4 runs: 5%San Francisco Giants by 3 runs: 7%San Francisco Giants by 2 runs: 10%San Francisco Giants by 1 run: 12%New York Mets by 1 run: 16%New York Mets by 2 runs: 10%New York Mets by 3 runs: 7%New York Mets by 4 runs: 6%New York Mets by 5 runs: 4%New York Mets by 6 runs: 3%New York Mets by 7 runs: 2%New York Mets by 8 runs: 2%New York Mets by 9 runs: 1%New York Mets by 10 runs: 1%New York Mets by 11 runs: 1%New York Mets by 12 runs: <1%New York Mets by 13 runs: <1%
← SF wins byNYM wins by →
New York Mets wins by 2 or more38%
New York Mets wins by 3 or more28%
San Francisco Giants wins by 2 or more34%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.8 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.568%
Total over 8.548%
Total over 10.531%
Total from 7 to 1036%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
SFCesar Perdomo RP · no recent starts on recordstarted
NYMChristian Scott SP · last 3 starts: 16.1 IP, 5.51 ERA, 15 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SF·NYM
Sep 5 at NYM
last game
Sep 5 vs SF
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
7th straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 142+ games
SF·NYM
−0.14
rating (0 = average)
−0.04
4.2
runs / game
4.2
4.7
runs allowed / game
4.5
59−84
season record
64−78
33−36
home record
33−40
26−48
away record
31−38
W1
streak
L1
5−5
last 10
4−6
8.4
hits / game
7.9
1.15
home runs / game
1.23
2.8
walks drawn / game
3.2
8.0
batter strikeouts / game
8.5
7.5
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.9
0.66
errors / game
0.61

Rating Trend

SF · NYM · 162 days
San Francisco GiantsNew York Mets
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · NYM 6−4
Sep 5at NYMSF 9 − 5
Sep 4at NYMNYM 10 − 6
Apr 5at SFNYM 5 − 2
Apr 4at SFNYM 9 − 0
Apr 3at SFNYM 10 − 3
Apr 2at SFSF 7 − 2
Aug 3, 2025at NYMSF 12 − 4
Aug 2, 2025at NYMNYM 12 − 6
Aug 1, 2025at NYMSF 4 − 3
Jul 27, 2025at SFNYM 5 − 3

SF · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Sep 5at NYM9 − 5W
Sep 4at NYM6 − 10L
Sep 3at PIT2 − 5L
Sep 2at PIT5 − 4W
Sep 1at PIT12 − 13L
Aug 31at ATL7 − 3W
Aug 29vs ARI7 − 2W
Aug 29vs ARI1 − 7L
Aug 28vs ARI6 − 10L
Aug 27vs ARI6 − 1W

NYM · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
Sep 5vs SF5 − 9L
Sep 4vs SF10 − 6W
Sep 2at TB10 − 4W
Sep 1at TB2 − 6L
Aug 31at TB3 − 2W
Aug 30vs HOU3 − 6L
Aug 29vs HOU6 − 2W
Aug 28vs HOU1 − 3L
Aug 27vs MIL2 − 8L
Aug 26vs MIL1 − 8L