bayesRatings

Rockies at Tigers

MLB · Saturday, Sep 12 · 12:10 PM CT · Comerica Park · Final COL 7 – DET 11
← MLB / Sep 12

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
COL0031020107120
DET0022000711182
Team box
COL·DET
12
hits
18
2
home runs
1
2
walks
7
9
strikeouts
8
194
pitches thrown
147
0
errors
2
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Hao-Yu LeeDET3-5203
Hunter GoodmanCOL1-4113
Kevin McGonigleDET2-5111
Max ClarkDET3-4101
Ezequiel TovarCOL1-3111
Jake McCarthyCOL1-4102
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Tanner GordonCOL4.010415
Jaden Hill (L)COL0.04510
Andrew SearsDET4.17415
Beau Brieske (W)DET1.22102

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
DET +4
COL +4
123456789
largest lead: DET 4 · COL 3lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was COL 36%, DET 64% · Updated Sep 12

Expected margin
DET by 1.7
Expected score
DET 5.5 – 3.8 COL
Expected total
9.3
RockiesThe matchupTigers
+181Our fair odds−181
3.8Expected runs5.5
−0.50Power rating+0.02
4.7Runs / game4.4
5.8Allowed / game4.0
8.6Hits / game8.0
1.10Home runs / game1.13
3.2Walks drawn / game3.5
55−92Season record68−79
3−7Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
COL chance · DET chance
Our model fair35.6%64.4%
Kalshi42.7%61.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 12:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
COLColorado Rockies+18136%+13442.7%———
DETDetroit Tigers−18164%−16161.7%———
SpreadDET by 1.7
COLColorado Rockies+1.7our margin————
DETDetroit Tigers−1.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.3
Over9.3our total————
Under9.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Detroit Tigers by 1.7 expected
Colorado Rockies by 16 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 15 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 14 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 13 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 12 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 11 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 10 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 9 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 8 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 7 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 6 runs: 2%Colorado Rockies by 5 runs: 3%Colorado Rockies by 4 runs: 4%Colorado Rockies by 3 runs: 5%Colorado Rockies by 2 runs: 8%Colorado Rockies by 1 run: 12%Detroit Tigers by 1 run: 14%Detroit Tigers by 2 runs: 11%Detroit Tigers by 3 runs: 8%Detroit Tigers by 4 runs: 7%Detroit Tigers by 5 runs: 6%Detroit Tigers by 6 runs: 5%Detroit Tigers by 7 runs: 4%Detroit Tigers by 8 runs: 3%Detroit Tigers by 9 runs: 2%Detroit Tigers by 10 runs: 2%Detroit Tigers by 11 runs: 1%Detroit Tigers by 12 runs: 1%Detroit Tigers by 13 runs: 1%Detroit Tigers by 14 runs: <1%Detroit Tigers by 15 runs: <1%Detroit Tigers by 16 runs: <1%
← COL wins byDET wins by →
Detroit Tigers wins by 2 or more50%
Detroit Tigers wins by 3 or more40%
Colorado Rockies wins by 2 or more24%
Decided by one run26%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.3 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.560%
Total over 9.542%
Total over 11.527%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
COLTanner Gordon SP · last 3 starts: 16.2 IP, 3.78 ERA, 12 Kstarted
DETAndrew Sears SP · last 1 start: 5.2 IP, 1.59 ERA, 4 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
COL·DET
Sep 11 at DET
last game
Sep 11 vs COL
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
5th straight road game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 147+ games
COL·DET
−0.50
rating (0 = average)
+0.02
4.7
runs / game
4.4
5.8
runs allowed / game
4.0
55−92
season record
68−79
30−41
home record
37−36
25−51
away record
31−43
L5
streak
W2
3−7
last 10
5−5
8.6
hits / game
8.0
1.10
home runs / game
1.13
3.2
walks drawn / game
3.5
8.8
batter strikeouts / game
8.7
6.8
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.0
0.64
errors / game
0.45

Rating Trend

COL · DET · 168 days
Colorado RockiesDetroit Tigers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · DET 8−2
Sep 11at DETDET 6 − 2
May 8, 2025at COLDET 11 − 1
May 8, 2025at COLDET 10 − 2
May 7, 2025at COLDET 8 − 6
Sep 12, 2024at DETCOL 4 − 2
Sep 11, 2024at DETDET 7 − 4
Sep 10, 2024at DETDET 11 − 0
Jul 2, 2023at COLDET 14 − 9
Jul 1, 2023at COLDET 4 − 2
Jun 30, 2023at COLCOL 8 − 5

COL · Last 10

3−7 · streak L5
Sep 11at DET2 − 6L
Sep 10at NYY3 − 10L
Sep 9at NYY1 − 6L
Sep 8at NYY3 − 5L
Sep 6vs STL8 − 10L
Sep 5vs STL10 − 7W
Sep 4vs STL6 − 7L
Sep 2vs BAL6 − 5W
Sep 1vs BAL4 − 2W
Aug 31vs BAL1 − 2L

DET · Last 10

5−5 · streak W2
Sep 11vs COL6 − 2W
Sep 9vs MIN7 − 2W
Sep 8vs MIN2 − 3L
Sep 7vs MIN5 − 4W
Sep 6at CLE2 − 3L
Sep 5at CLE6 − 0W
Sep 4at CLE3 − 4L
Sep 4at CLE6 − 7L
Sep 2at MIN11 − 6W
Sep 1at MIN2 − 15L