bayesRatings

Twins at Tigers

MLB · Monday, Sep 7 · 2:10 PM CT · Comerica Park · Final MIN 4 – DET 5
← MLB / Sep 7

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
MIN100102000481
DET12002000580
Team box
MIN·DET
8
hits
8
1
home runs
2
6
walks
1
5
strikeouts
12
134
pitches thrown
148
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Riley GreeneDET3-4112
Trevor LarnachMIN2-3211
Kevin McGonigleDET1-4111
Walker JenkinsMIN1-3002
Kaelen CulpepperMIN2-4100
Gleyber TorresDET1-4100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Joe Ryan (L)MIN4.03217
Troy Melton (W)DET5.27413
Kenley Jansen (S)DET1.00010

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
DET +3
MIN +3
123456789
largest lead: DET 3 · MIN 1lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIN 45%, DET 55% · Updated Sep 7

Expected margin
DET by 0.7
Expected score
DET 4.8 – 4.1 MIN
Expected total
8.8
TwinsThe matchupTigers
+122Our fair odds−122
4.1Expected runs4.8
−0.12Power rating+0.00
4.7Runs / game4.4
5.0Allowed / game4.0
8.3Hits / game8.0
1.17Home runs / game1.12
3.2Walks drawn / game3.5
68−75Season record65−78
4−6Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIN chance · DET chance
Our model fair45.1%54.9%
Kalshi49.7%54.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 2:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MINMinnesota Twins+12245%+10149.7%———
DETDetroit Tigers−12255%−12154.7%———
SpreadDET by 0.7
MINMinnesota Twins+0.7our margin————
DETDetroit Tigers−0.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.8
Over8.8our total————
Under8.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Detroit Tigers by 0.7 expected
Minnesota Twins by 14 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 13 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 12 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 11 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 10 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 9 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 8 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 7 runs: 2%Minnesota Twins by 6 runs: 2%Minnesota Twins by 5 runs: 3%Minnesota Twins by 4 runs: 5%Minnesota Twins by 3 runs: 6%Minnesota Twins by 2 runs: 9%Minnesota Twins by 1 run: 15%Detroit Tigers by 1 run: 13%Detroit Tigers by 2 runs: 10%Detroit Tigers by 3 runs: 8%Detroit Tigers by 4 runs: 6%Detroit Tigers by 5 runs: 5%Detroit Tigers by 6 runs: 4%Detroit Tigers by 7 runs: 3%Detroit Tigers by 8 runs: 2%Detroit Tigers by 9 runs: 1%Detroit Tigers by 10 runs: 1%Detroit Tigers by 11 runs: 1%Detroit Tigers by 12 runs: <1%Detroit Tigers by 13 runs: <1%Detroit Tigers by 14 runs: <1%
← MIN wins byDET wins by →
Detroit Tigers wins by 2 or more42%
Detroit Tigers wins by 3 or more32%
Minnesota Twins wins by 2 or more30%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.8 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.568%
Total over 8.548%
Total over 10.531%
Total from 7 to 1036%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
MINJoe Ryan SP · last 3 starts: 15.1 IP, 9.39 ERA, 10 Kstarted
DETTroy Melton SP · last 3 starts: 18.0 IP, 5.50 ERA, 11 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIN·DET
Sep 6 at CHW
last game
Sep 6 at CLE
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
7
4th straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 143+ games
MIN·DET
−0.12
rating (0 = average)
+0.00
4.7
runs / game
4.4
5.0
runs allowed / game
4.0
68−75
season record
65−78
38−34
home record
34−35
30−41
away record
31−43
L1
streak
L1
4−6
last 10
3−7
8.3
hits / game
8.0
1.17
home runs / game
1.12
3.2
walks drawn / game
3.5
8.0
batter strikeouts / game
8.7
8.4
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.1
0.45
errors / game
0.45

Rating Trend

MIN · DET · 163 days
Minnesota TwinsDetroit Tigers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · DET 3−7
Sep 2at MINDET 11 − 6
Sep 1at MINMIN 15 − 2
Aug 31at MINMIN 11 − 1
Jun 11at DETDET 11 − 0
Jun 10at DETMIN 6 − 4
Jun 9at DETDET 10 − 4
Apr 9at MINMIN 3 − 1
Apr 8at MINMIN 8 − 6
Apr 7at MINMIN 4 − 2
Apr 6at MINMIN 7 − 3

MIN · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
Sep 6at CHW1 − 10L
Sep 5at CHW6 − 4W
Sep 4at CHW1 − 4L
Sep 2vs DET6 − 11L
Sep 1vs DET15 − 2W
Aug 31vs DET11 − 1W
Aug 30vs CHW5 − 1W
Aug 29vs CHW2 − 3L
Aug 28vs CHW4 − 7L
Aug 26at ATH4 − 7L

DET · Last 10

3−7 · streak L1
Sep 6at CLE2 − 3L
Sep 5at CLE6 − 0W
Sep 4at CLE3 − 4L
Sep 4at CLE6 − 7L
Sep 2at MIN11 − 6W
Sep 1at MIN2 − 15L
Aug 31at MIN1 − 11L
Aug 30vs LAD1 − 6L
Aug 29vs LAD2 − 1W
Aug 28vs LAD1 − 2L