bayesRatings

Rockies at Yankees

MLB · Wednesday, Sep 9 · 6:05 PM CT · Yankee Stadium · Final COL 1 – NYY 6
← MLB / Sep 9

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
COL000010000150
NYY01400001670
Team box
COL·NYY
5
hits
7
1
home runs
3
3
walks
3
11
strikeouts
6
132
pitches thrown
135
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
George Lombard Jr.NYY1-4114
Connor NorbyCOL2-3111
Luis Garcia Jr.NYY2-4211
Cody BellingerNYY1-4111
Aaron JudgeNYY2-4100
Jake McCarthyCOL1-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Tomoyuki Sugano (L)COL6.04535
Will Warren (W)NYY6.04128

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
NYY +5
COL +5
123456789
largest lead: NYY 5 · COL 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was COL 32%, NYY 68% · Updated Sep 9

Expected margin
NYY by 2.0
Expected score
NYY 5.7 – 3.7 COL
Expected total
9.3
RockiesThe matchupYankees
+216Our fair odds−216
3.7Expected runs5.7
−0.47Power rating+0.23
4.7Runs / game4.5
5.7Allowed / game3.7
8.6Hits / game7.7
1.11Home runs / game1.35
3.2Walks drawn / game3.6
55−89Season record82−62
3−7Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
COL chance · NYY chance
Our model fair31.6%68.4%
Kalshi32.5%70.5%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:05 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
COLColorado Rockies+21632%+20832.5%———
NYYNew York Yankees−21668%−23970.5%———
SpreadNYY by 2.0
COLColorado Rockies+2our margin————
NYYNew York Yankees−2our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.3
Over9.3our total————
Under9.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

New York Yankees by 2.0 expected
Colorado Rockies by 16 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 15 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 14 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 13 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 12 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 11 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 10 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 9 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 8 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 7 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 6 runs: 2%Colorado Rockies by 5 runs: 2%Colorado Rockies by 4 runs: 3%Colorado Rockies by 3 runs: 5%Colorado Rockies by 2 runs: 7%Colorado Rockies by 1 run: 10%New York Yankees by 1 run: 16%New York Yankees by 2 runs: 11%New York Yankees by 3 runs: 9%New York Yankees by 4 runs: 7%New York Yankees by 5 runs: 6%New York Yankees by 6 runs: 5%New York Yankees by 7 runs: 4%New York Yankees by 8 runs: 3%New York Yankees by 9 runs: 2%New York Yankees by 10 runs: 2%New York Yankees by 11 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 12 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 13 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 14 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 15 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 16 runs: <1%
← COL wins byNYY wins by →
New York Yankees wins by 2 or more53%
New York Yankees wins by 3 or more42%
Colorado Rockies wins by 2 or more22%
Decided by one run25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.3 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.560%
Total over 9.542%
Total over 11.527%
Total from 8 to 1132%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
COLTomoyuki Sugano SP · last 3 starts: 13.0 IP, 9.69 ERA, 10 Kstarted
NYYWill Warren SP · last 3 starts: 16.0 IP, 2.81 ERA, 16 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
COL·NYY
Sep 8 at NYY
last game
Sep 8 vs COL
0 days
days of rest
0 days
5
games in last 7 days
5
2nd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 144+ games
COL·NYY
−0.47
rating (0 = average)
+0.23
4.7
runs / game
4.5
5.7
runs allowed / game
3.7
55−89
season record
82−62
30−41
home record
38−31
25−48
away record
44−31
L2
streak
W1
3−7
last 10
6−4
8.6
hits / game
7.7
1.11
home runs / game
1.35
3.2
walks drawn / game
3.6
8.7
batter strikeouts / game
9.2
6.9
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.0
0.65
errors / game
0.58

Rating Trend

COL · NYY · 165 days
Colorado RockiesNew York Yankees
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · NYY 6−4
Sep 8at NYYNYY 5 − 3
May 25, 2025at COLNYY 5 − 4
May 24, 2025at COLNYY 13 − 1
May 23, 2025at COLCOL 3 − 2
Aug 25, 2024at NYYNYY 10 − 3
Aug 24, 2024at NYYCOL 9 − 2
Aug 23, 2024at NYYNYY 3 − 0
Jul 16, 2023at COLCOL 8 − 7
Jul 15, 2023at COLNYY 6 − 3
Jul 14, 2023at COLCOL 7 − 2

COL · Last 10

3−7 · streak L2
Sep 8at NYY3 − 5L
Sep 6vs STL8 − 10L
Sep 5vs STL10 − 7W
Sep 4vs STL6 − 7L
Sep 2vs BAL6 − 5W
Sep 1vs BAL4 − 2W
Aug 31vs BAL1 − 2L
Aug 30at ATL2 − 3L
Aug 29at ATL1 − 2L
Aug 28at ATL4 − 6L

NYY · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Sep 8vs COL5 − 3W
Sep 6at SD3 − 4L
Sep 5at SD5 − 1W
Sep 4at SD2 − 3L
Sep 2at LAA6 − 3W
Sep 1at LAA7 − 3W
Aug 31at LAA1 − 10L
Aug 30vs BOS16 − 1W
Aug 29vs BOS9 − 2W
Aug 29vs BOS0 − 6L